Anthony Reyes (SP – Indians)
Anthony Reyes struck out only 1 batter through 5 innings on Friday, leaving him with 3 K and 6 BB in 11 IP this season. Reyes’ declining K rate is very concerning. Through five seasons in the minor leagues, Reyes averaged 9.5 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9. But over his three partial seasons in the majors, he has only averaged 6.38 K/9. How much of his struggles in the majors can be attributed to irrevocable differences between he and pitching coach Dave Duncan is debatable and remains to be seen. To be fair to the possibility of the differences profoundly affecting his play, we should try and judge him based on his time spent with the Indians, although the sample size is very small. Over 34 IP he had an amazing 1.83 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. However, his indicators were fairly dreadful (3.93 K/9, 3.15 BB/9). His ERA was so scintillatingly low due to a BABIP of .262, a strand rate of 89.8%, and a HR/FB rate of 5.9%. All of these numbers are not repeatable. Additionally, he showed an increased propensity to induce ground balls with the Indians in ’08 (45.5%) that he had never shown before, and has not carried over to this season. His minor league totals indicate that there is a great pitcher hiding underneath the poor major league numbers, but until he begins to show some progress in the K and BB departments, he will be largely ignorable in mixed leagues.
Joba Chamberlain (SP – Yankees)
Joba had a rough outing against the Indians on Friday, allowing 5 runs and walking 5 batters in just under 5 IP. Control was Joba’s undoing in this contest, as he only threw 46 of his 93 pitches for strikes. If Joba owners can survive through the occasional wild start, they should be rewarded with an even greater number of dominating performances. The questions surrounding Joba as a SP are extremely overblown in my mind. Joba was a SP in college as well as in the minors and was only used as a RP in the majors because he was just 21 years old. Yet, I feel as though the media has somehow successfully managed to dub “Joba the starter” as something that is experimental. In fact, I routinely hear people in the media talking about how they should move Joba back into the pen. Back into the pen??? How can you move back into a role that you never really had to begin with? The kid threw all of 24 innings in relief in his rookie year. Strangely, I doubt I will be hearing the same people clamoring about how David Price should move back into the pen. The bottom-line is that Joba is still too much of an unknown to be slapped with the injury-prone tag, and he is fully capable of being one of the most dominating SP in the game as early as this year. I would use yesterday’s wild start along with unsubstantiated injury concerns and an overblown SP or RP controversy to lower the asking price for Joba.
Aaron Hill (2B – Blue Jays)
Aaron Hill smashed his 4th HR of the season last night along with his 13th and 14th RBI. Hill’s ’08 season was robbed by post-concussion syndrome, which made him an under-valued pick on draft day ’09. But let us not get too carried away with our expectations. Hill’s EYE has actually declined in his four years in the league (.83, .64, .40, and .52), and this year it is currently sitting at .20. This is not the positive trend that you like to see out of a developing hitter. This year his numbers have largely been inflated by a .421 BABIP and a 16.7 HR/FB%. To put that last number in perspective, Hill’s career average is 5.3 HR/FB. Let me be clear, Hill was without question one of the top steals in the draft this year, but those who are expecting him to shatter his career highs set in ’07 based on his hot start, could end up disappointed.
Justin Verlander (SP – Tigers)
Justin Verlander gave up 5 ER in 7 IP, while striking out 8 and walking just 1 on Friday night. Verlander was victimized by a massive clustering of hits tonight. He was extraordinarily dominant for stretches as he retired the first 12 batters of the game, 7 via strike out. Then, in the 5th inning, Verlander allowed 6 runners to reach base, despite allowing only 9 to reach all game. Despite his line appearing poor last night, I am looking at this performance as a positive. For the season, his BB rate is still too high (3.94 BB/9), but his K rate is an extremely positive indicator (11.25 K/9). Last year was extremely disappointing as his K and BB rates both moved in the wrong direction, and he was the victim of some bad luck (66% strand rate). Even though it may not look like it on the surface, I feel that last night’s start was the first step to a bounce back season for Verlander in ’09.
Jack Cust (DH – A’s)
Although it is extremely early in the season, Jack Cust has appeared to have cut down on his K%. Cust has walked 9 times and struck out 10 times in 33 at bats, which is good for a 27% BB rate, a 30% K rate, and a .90 EYE. His career totals in each of the categories are 19.1% BB, 41% K, and .58 EYE. The driving factor behind this improved plate discipline has been a large bump in his contact rate (72.3% in ’09 vs. 65.8% career). It seems unlikely that Cust would make this leap in plate discipline at age 30, but it is important to remember that this is essentially just his 3rd year in the majors. Once again, it is far too early in the season to draw any conclusions from this sample size, but it is certainly worth monitoring, as a decline in his K rate would make Cust a far-less frustrating player to own in mixed leagues.
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