Jorge Cantu (1B – Marlins)
Jorge Cantu homered again on Wednesday, which now gives him 6 on the season and 3 in his last 2 games. Cantu also took 2 free passes in the game, giving him 8 on the season versus just 8 strike outs. Cantu is still just 27 years old, but feels much older due to his break-out season coming back in ’05 as a 23 year old. In Cantu’s two full major league seasons, he posted lines of .286 / .311 / .497 and .277 / .327 / .481, with an ISO of .211 and .204 in those years. In between these years, Cantu dropped two horrendous duds while posting stats that aren’t even worth mentioning. So, which Jorge Cantu will show up this year, the one from ’05 and ’08, or the one from ’06 and ’07? Based on his massively improved EYE (1.00) in the early going, I would say it is way more likely that the good Cantu shows up in ’09. Cantu has a career EYE of .31, but in ’09 he is swinging at fewer pitches outside the strike zone and is making contact at a much higher rate. If his improved plate discipline is a trend rather than an aberration, Cantu has a great chance to post career high numbers across the board in ’09.
Doug Davis (SP – Diamondbacks)
Doug Davis continued his impressive ’09 campaign by shutting out the Cubs for 7 innings, while striking out 7 and allowing just 5 base runners. Davis has become fairly predictable over his career. He will supply a decent amount of strike outs, an ERA in the 4.00s, and a WHIP that is just murderous to a fantasy team. However, Davis has managed to improve his peripherals thus far on the season. His BB/9 has improved to 2.65 this year versus 4.3 over his last 3 seasons. Walking fewer batters has also caused his K/BB ratio to jump up to 2.7, which is a significant improvement on his 3 year average of 1.61. Unfortunately, I doubt this trend will continue. Davis isn’t throwing more strikes than he has historically; rather, he is generating more swings on bad pitches than usual (29.8% versus a 3-year average of 21.2%). Thus, although his BB% has improved, he is still the same pitcher he has always been, that which is reliant on getting hitters to swing at bad pitches. I see his improved peripherals as more aberration than trend, meaning that his BB rate should be on the rise in future games.
Jordan Schafer (OF – Braves)
Jordan Schafer racked up 3 more walks in Wednesday night’s game, which now gives him 12 walks to just 5 strike outs in his last 9 games. Kelly Johnson’s struggles have opened the door up for a new lead-off man in Atlanta. Sure, Omar Infante has collected a handful of hits while hitting lead-off in the past 2 games, but he is clearly not a long-term solution, or even a short-term solution for that matter. With the patience displayed by Schafer in his recent games, he is the clear-cut choice to emerge as Atlanta’s lead-off hitter, and he will enjoy a nice little bump in fantasy value once it happens. So go and be proactive, because the writing is most certainly on the wall.
Shane Victorino (OF – Phillies)
Shane Victorino hit his 3rd HR of the season on Wednesday, and also collected his 15th RBI. The RBI total is somewhat surprising since he has averaged just 50 per season in his last 3 years. The RBIs are also surprising since he is hitting behind Jimmy Rollins, and he has been completely invisible this year. The cause of the RBI increase is not because he is seeing more runners in scoring position when he comes to bat (20% in ’09; 25.7% in ’08); rather, he is just hitting better with RISP (.357 BA in ’09; .271 BA in ’08). His current BA with RISP is a sure bet to come down, but at the same time, he appears to have under-achieved with RISP in ’08. Victorino hit a full 22 points below his BA with RISP in ’08, and was able to grind out 58 RBI. Thus, I would expect Victorino to eclipse his 58 RBI of ’08, but obviously he will not continue along his current pace.
Jeremy Hermida (OF – Marlins)
Jeremy Hermida doubled in the 6th inning against Johan Santana to break up a hitless streak stretching over his previous 16 at bats. Hermida’s batting average has taken quite a tumble during the streak, but thankfully, his BB rate has not done the same. Hermida is currently boasting a 21.7% BB rate in ’09, which is a significant improvement over his 8.7% mark last season. Additionally, his EYE has improved to 1.07 from 0.35 a year ago. The fact that he has not let his cold steak deter his more selective approach at the plate this year (swinging at 7% less pitches outside of the strike zone) is a very positive signal. With his improved EYE looking more real with each game, I am even more confident than ever that Hermida will make last year’s woeful numbers a distant memory in ’09. Be patient with him.
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