Ervin Santana:
After two decent starts off the DL, Ervin Santana figured to be a nice two-start option for this week with favorable matchups against the White Sox and Mariners (two teams that rank 23rd and 28th respectively in OPS). Unfortunately for Santana, and his depressed owners, (which I’m a part of) he allowed a whopping 15 ER’s and 23 base-runners in just 6 1/3 innings. After Santana’s last start the Angels had to come out and pronounce their faith in Ervin’s health, so it will be interesting to see if they decide to comment again. As Schuyler noted earlier in the week, Santana’s velocity remains down and the thoughts of his spring training elbow injury are still fresh in the minds of his owners. In the leagues I own Santana, he’ll be firmly on the bench until we see something resembling the guy who finally broke out last season. With Matt Palmer pitching well and Kelvim Escobar on the way back from rehab, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Santana potentially DL-ed. In shallow leagues I actually think he’s on the verge of becoming droppable when you factor the performance and the injury concerns but perhaps I’m just beat up from enduring the ugly results this week.
John Danks:
Danks continued his brutal May with another sub-par outing against the Royals. Danks allowed 9 base-hits and 2 BB’s, which turned into 4 ER’s, in just 5 1/3 innings and raised his May ERA to 6.32 and his overall ERA to 4.80. Danks’ K Rate remains stellar, but he’s struggling with his control (.40 BB Rate up from .29 last season). Much of the control issues have come in two starts, so this looks to be more of a short-term phenomenon. On Sunday Danks threw 67% of his 100 pitches for strikes and has been at 63% Strike Rate throughout May despite the heightened BB Rate. Seems like a short-term blip on the radar screen for Danks and one that creates a nice short-term buying opportunity. Danks has upped his K Rate and his GB Rate so far this year, but isn’t seeing the great results, now would be a nice time to try to buy.
Willy Aybar:
If you’re battling injuries around the diamond as many fantasy owners are this time of year, you may want to look for Willy Aybar on the waiver wire. Aybar comes with good positional flexibility (typically 1B-2B-3B) and has received consistent playing time since the Rays lost their DP tandem last week. Aybar went 0-4 on Sunday, but he’s hitting .263/.359/.414 for the season and .306/.414/.486 here in May. He’s shown an elite EYE in May (1.08) and has shown good pop and run production hitting primarily 5th in the Rays lineup. He racked up 15 Runs, 12 RBI’s, and 3 HR’s in May and makes for a nice short-term fill in across the infield positions thanks to a deep and productive Rays lineup.
Jon Lester:
I guess I was a bit early in calling the buying opportunity over for Jon Lester back on April 20th, so I’ll take another stab at it after Lester’s great outing yesterday. Even early in the season I noted the big jump in Lester’s K Rate and the continued good command, citing some bad luck on his HR/FB and BABIP Rates. Those early season numbers have held up (the genuine improvements and the bad luck) through the first 2 months of the season, but Sunday looked like a start that may turn things around for Lester, this time for good. Lester struck out 12 and allowed just 6 base-runners (3 hits, 3 BB’s) and 1 ER in 6 dominant innings against the Blue Jays. For the season Lester now has an outstanding 1.13 K/I rate and most of the other peripherals have stayed in line. Sure his GB Rate is “slightly” lower (43% vs. 47%), but the real difference in Lester this season is just plain old bad luck. A 19.3% HR/FB Rate and .373 BABIP against are the reasons for Lester’s poor start and once that luck reverts you’re going to have a better version of the 2008 Lester, who was pretty good in his own right, thanks to the increased K Rate. The buying opportunity is likely over for Lester, hopefully you took advantage.
Jhonny Peralta:
We’ve seen some positive batting average regression for Peralta here in May, but his fantasy owners are left wondering where the pop is? Peralta’s hit .316 in May and raised his average back up to .269, but he’s accumulated just 5 extra base hits in May including 1 HR. His 5.1% extra base hit rate in May is even worse than April and his 2009 rate sits at 5.8%, nearly half of his 11.4% Rate in 2008. The answers come in an increased GB Rate and a lack of lift in his swing. Peralta’s GB Rate which had typically sat in the 44-47% range has jumped up to 54.5% here in 2009. Until Peralta gets more consistent lift in his swing, he’s going to be a disappointing fantasy asset. Owners drafting Peralta for power out of the MI slot aren’t going to get the power they expected unless his batted ball rates change significantly.
