Scott Baker:
Just when things looked like they were turning around for Scott Baker, one bad inning erased 6 great innings of work. Baker started his outing on Sunday with 6 no-hit innings, yielding just 1 BB and striking out 4. Then in the 7th inning Baker allowed 4 1B’s and a HR before getting yanked. His bullpen didn’t help him much as Luis Ayala refused to strand any base-runners. Baker finished with 6 innings, allowing 5 ER’s on 5 hits and a BB (1.00 WHIP), while striking out 4. There is both good and bad to take from the start as Baker’s strong command and terrific first 6 innings show he continues to take steps forward in getting back to the pitcher we had so much faith in preseason. In addition Baker entered the game with a measly 55% Stand Rate that only got worse with 5 of the 6 runners Baker allowed finding their way across home plate. On the negative side, Baker’s FB trends and his continued struggles with the long ball only continue to worsen. Baker recorded just 1 out on the ground compared to 13 fly outs and just 13 of the 62 outs he’s recorded this season have been on the ground. Baker’s never gotten many ground balls posting rates of 39.9%, 33.8%, 34.6%, and 32.9% each of the last 4 seasons, but this season’s sub 20% GB Rate is the type of extreme that’s going to make it near impossible for him to have success. As a Baker owner, I’m tempted to start him next week against a weak-hitting SEA lineup that lacks pop, but against any lineup with any semblance of power, Baker needs to be reserved until he can more consistently keep the ball down in the zone.
Carl Crawford:
Crawford’s early season erosion in his peripherals has quickly corrected as Crawford’s walked 9 times and struck out just 4 in his last 10 games, which has brought his EYE right back to .48. The way he’s gotten there has been a bit unusual as his K Rate and BB Rate have both jumped early in the season. The rise in his K Rate will eventually impact his batting average, which is being inflated by a .351 BHIP% currently. Of course the big news with Crawford has been his renewed willingness to run. After attempting just 32 SB’s in 151 times on base (21.1%) last season (after averaging between 26-30% for much of his career), Crawford is a maniac on the basepaths early in the season. With 6 swipes on Sunday, Crawford now is a perfect 17-17 in SB attempts and has attempted a steal in 44% of his times on base. The increased willingness to run is going to more than make up for the lack of power and likely decreased batting average that will come along with it as Crawford is well on his way to a 50+ SB campaign (currently on pace for over 100).
James Shields:
Shields rebounded from a difficult 1st inning to post his 3rd consecutive quality start and pickup his 3rd win of the season. While Shields has been strong with his 3.50 ERA and 1.20 WHIP early on in the season but there are some slight red flags to be concerned about. While everything else (from a peripherals perspective) is in line, Shields’ K Rate has evaporated early on, posting just a .56 K Rate in 2009. This is a far cry from his .86 K Rate in 2007. Some of this is assuredly due to some small sample size issues, but Shields also saw a drop in his K Rate last season down to .74. According to FanGraphs, Shields O-Swing % (% of balls swung at outside the strike zone) has dropped over 7% early on in 2009. This is likely the culprit of Shields lower K Rate and something Shields owners need to be aware of going forward. The Ratio categories are still being held up by some fortuitous luck (.214 BHIP%, .76 Strand Rate) and without the K’s Shields could see a significant rise in his ERA and WHIP. At this point as a Shields owner I’m holding tight as he did strike out 6 yesterday against Boston, but the K Rate is something I’ll be paying added attention to in his next few outings.
Scott Richmond:
Richmond posted his 4th consecutive quality start and picked up his 4th consecutive win in the process on Sunday as he limited an underrated Orioles lineup to just 2 ER’s in 7 innings of work. He allowed just 5 hits and walked 2 while striking out 6 and now has a 26:12 K:BB Ratio in his 30 1/3 innings so far this season. The journeyman right-hander was signed out of independent ball prior to 2008 and has done nothing but impress at the major league level posting a 3.40 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 7.2 K/9, and 2.1 BB/9 in his first 50 innings. Early in the season he’s benefiting a bit from a .267 BHIP% and 84% Strand Rate that are inflating his 2009 numbers in ERA by about ¾ of a run and in WHIP by 1/10th of a point. Even when those levels normalize he’s showing usefulness in AL Only formats and potential for mixed league formats thanks to solid K Rates.
Matt LaPorta:
LaPorta made his major league debut yesterday and was thrown to the wolves having to face Justin Verlander. He went 0-4 and struck out twice, looking a bit overmatched in the process. While one game against one of the AL’s better pitchers isn’t a great indication of LaPorta’s immediate success, owners may need to exude patience to reap the benefits. First and foremost Eric Wedge appears to be content platooning LaPorta early on which will make it difficult for the youngster who is used to playing everyday. In addition, LaPorta’s shown a trend of struggling initially at each level of promotion before adapting and then raking. LaPorta’s going to hit at the major league level and he’s going to hit quite a bit, but it might not come immediately and unfortunately it appears he’ll need to prove himself early on to earn more consistent playing time. I’m a big LaPorta fan and am trying to stash him wherever I have bench room, but I’m not counting on him for immediate production. I advise the same route be taken.
