Carl Pavano – Pavano was strong early in last night’s game, but his final line ended up not being that pretty as he pitched 6 and 1/3rds innings allowing 10 hits and 4 ER. He didn’t walk anyone, but then again only struck out three batters. Pavano is actually a good add at this point. He has not been dominant (6.21 K/9), but his control has been very good leading to a solid 3.25 K/9. His ERA and WHIP are both sure to drop soon because of some unlucky numbers Pavano is currently experiencing. His current BABIP is .364 and LOB% is 60.7%. Both of those are well off Pavano’s career marks of .309 and 69.8% respectively. With a K rate and LD% in line with his career numbers, there is no reason to think those numbers will not begin to regress to Pavano’s career marks.
Grady Sizemore – Sizemore went 1 for 5 last night and continues to struggle at the dish. His average is now down to .226, but I would not be too concerned as Sizemore is a stud. Right now, he is struggling because of a very unlucky singles average of .198. Over the past three seasons, Sizemore has had full season singles averages of .240, .271, and .218. His current LD% is better than in all three of those seasons, so I would expect Sizemore to go on a tear soon and get that average back up. Our preseason projection for Sizemore was a .283 average, and that is still possible despite Sizemore’s early struggles.
Gavin Floyd – Floyd has really struggled with his control in his past 4 starts: 13 strikeouts and just 12 walks. On top of that he is allowing a terrible LD% of 25.7%. Some unlucky BABIP and LOB% do not help matters, but clearly Floyd is going through a funk on the mound right now. He might want to find your bench until he puts together a couple of strong starts. Particularly watch that K/BB ratio, but also be aware that Floyd just might not be that good. Last season he posted a 3.84 ERA, but his FIP ERA was nearly a run higher than that.
Alexei Ramirez – Ramirez went 1-4 last night with 2 RBI’s, and is now hitting right on the Mendoza line at .200. I’m close to giving up on Ramirez. Despite a slight increase in EYE (now at .43) he has lowered his contact rate and LD% (by about 4 percentage points), and he was always a batting average risk to begin with. On top of that, where’s the power? Ramirez has just 1 homer after hitting 21 last season. Well, he is putting the ball on the ground more (5 more percent of the time than last season). Also, of his fly balls, a ridiculous 32.3% are of the infield variety, which makes his current HR/FB% of 3.2% look a lot unluckier than it actually is.
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