The first 4 weeks of the
2009 Baseball Season are history and as typical there are quite a few
players who are struggling and a quite a few who are posting MVP
type numbers...but who deserves to be where? Welcome to the 1st edition
of the 2009 Over/Under achieving rankings report.
For those who are new
to Fantistics, here it is: "All Major
league Players streak!": The "confusion" comes when these
"good or bad" streaks occur during the early portion of the
season. "Are they just an aberration or are they a long
term trend that will carry through to seasons end?"...luckily, based
on our research, we have an answer...in over 80% of the cases
among veteran position players, they are a statistical anomaly
that will inevitably get "swallowed" and disappear after a full season
of games. The formal statistical term is "reversion
or regression to the mean", over a full term season (550'ish plate appearance)
experienced major league players tend to revert back to their typical category
statistics, of course some will exceed and some will decline which is
already assumed in our projections.
For the veteran fantasy
player, the quandary we often face is trying to figure out which of
the first and sometimes second year players are going to maintain their
current production. History tells us that over 1/2 of the current "up trending" (over performers)
first year players are going to fall into serious slumps after June. As the pros say: "their book is out" (where pitchers
from around the league
figure out how to get these guys out). Adam Jones is a rising young star,
however his current pace is unsustainable over a full season .359 BA/177 Runs/29 HR/133
RBI...is not happening. Please realize that I'm
not advocating to sell Jones cheaply, as we expected Jones to "come out" this
season and we expect him now to exceed our lofty pre season expectations.
However we all know that he's not going to maintain a 1.053 OPS through the remainder of the
season (only 1 - 3% of the players accumulate an OPS of over 1.000 in any
given season).
If you could get his current Roto Value in a trade (Jones for an
underperforming player like Matt Holliday), then it might be foolish
not to...if not, he is certainly worth holding on to.
<see
the Recommendations, click here> Not a member?
click here.
Using
Advanced Stats to Determine Value
Our Advanced
Stats Database contains some of the
baseball stat indicators that we use to analyze performance during the
season. The Advanced
Stats Database contains many of the widely recognized indicators along
with our Fantasy Production Indicator (FPI).
For our new readers, it's important to
understand the significance of
FPI,
its really a great indicator to grab on to, and can provide you with a
real quick understanding of value. Seeing OF Raul Ibanez at a 1.07 FPI (well
above Albert Pujols FPI
zone) is a glaring indication to cash in at a premium.
Patience
is the key to Winning a Fantasy Championship
Not all the answers
will be found using
FPI, but a great many may. As mentioned, a large
percentage of the batters will fall in line our preseason FPI projections
(within +/- 10%). The concept of reversion to the mean holds high esteem
among veteran players. Sure, every year you'll have the player who posts a
monster season out of the blue, but these are the
exceptions, and are very rare indeed. Early on during a season, the key to
all successful fantasy campaigns is patience for the under producing players on our team!
Strategy
Plus: Understanding the Analysis
Presented in the
datasheet are rankings based on where the typical 5x5 league would value players.
This may not match your league scoring, however if you use it on a
relative basis you can still gain benefit. The first column in the
grid below represents my ranking of the players based on their
potential moving forward. This ranking is not based on a specific
formula, however I have considered factors such as reversion to the mean
(preseason projections) and the Advanced Stat indicators which you will
see listed. The second column represents the current YTD ranking based on
the $ values of a typical 5x5 league. The 3rd column is the
Preseason Rank again based on the $ values of a typical 5x5 league.
The advanced stat columns
include the indicators BHIPx% (For more on Singles percentage, visit this link for a
definition), EYE (BB/K -
explanation), and change in EYE verses the players ratio in 2008. In a
nut shell, BHIPx% rates below .230 indicate that the player has been
unlucky on balls hit into play, and rates above .280 indicate that
the player has been lucky on balls hit into play (as more than their
fair share have fallen for base hits). The league average is approximately
.250. EYE gives us an indication whether a player's hot start is
sustainable based an improvement in his strike zone discipline.
The 2009 Expanded Stats
section
are simply the year to date stats, expanded over an entire season. It
is based on the assumption that the player's production will continue exactly as it has
over the first 20'ish games. It is included in the analysis so that we can
gauge how realistic the player's current production is or is not. The OPS
column represents the On Base + Slugging Percentages for these players.
As a reference, last year only 3 full time players attained an OPS
above 1.000. Among this rank were Albert Pujols,
Chipper Jones, & Manny Ramirez. In general
anything around .800 is considered average, with only 8%
attaining a OPS value over .900 in 2008.
The Column labeled "PreS
$" is the preseason projection dollar valuation for the given player.
It's included next to the 2009 $ valuation to give you a gauge of the
players current (not future) performance.
The Key columns to look at
are the
FPI Columns. The
FPI Change column, shows how much better or worse a player
is doing YTD through
Friday (5/01) verses our
preseason projection. The desirable situation is that you, as a fantasy
GM, can trade the "over producers" at their current (2009 $
column) worth and buy them at their projected worth (PreSeason $ column)...the
reverse would hold true for the "under producers". The Under producing
players have their FPI change highlighted in Blue
(greater than -10) and the overachievers
have their FPI change highlighted in Red (greater
than 10)
The Recommend
column is our recommended course of action: Buy or Sell.
Click here for the report:
http://www.fantistics.com/baseball00/StrategyPlus-Hitters-May2009.pdf
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