In our continuing series on the the "Over" and "Under" producers, presented is the June Hitter's edition. As we mentioned in the last report, all Major League Players hit hot and cold stretches during the season....and since our first report this season, quite a few players have "righted their ship"...drifting ever closer to our performance indicator FPI .
Regression to the mean, and in our case regression to FPI, is by no means a flawless evaluator. As we mentioned in the May strategy segment: In over 80% of the cases among veteran position players, torrid player starts that exceed their projected FPI by more than 10% are a statistical aberration that are short term in nature.
Although many players are starting to revert to their expected numbers, there are still quite a few that we still consider excellent opportunities. Last year in this space struggling players like Lance Berkman, Prince Fielder, Mark Teixeira, Robinson Cano, Placido Palanco, Freddy Sanchez, Jimmy Rollins, JJ Hardy, Alex Rodriguez, Miguel Cabrera, Matt Holliday, Grady Sizemore, Carlos Beltran, Ryan Braun, Brad Hawpe, and Matt Kemp all busted out big sticks in the summer months.
This year players like Chris Iannetta, Brian McCann, Giovanni Soto, Kelly Shoppach, Lance Berkman, Derrick Lee, Dan Uggla, Kelly Johnson, Jimmy Rollins, Jhonny Peralta, Troy Tulowitzki, Stephen Drew, Raffy Furcal, Chipper Jones, Garret Atkins, Nick Markakis, Carlos Lee, Matt Holliday, and BJ Upton are undoubtedly disappointing their fantasy owners. Realistically none of these guys may match their 2008 totals, however it's reasonable to expect a majority of these guys (2 out of 3) to go on a tear and come within a reasonable proximately of their historical norms.
Anthony A. Perri is the founder and the resident "Stats Nerd" here at Fantistics. Anthony is the designer of the Fantistics Projections, Grading, & the VAM drafting strategy models. His fantasy expertise has been published in several national publications, including being featured as a guest expert on Major League Baseball's official website. Anthony has an MBA and worked as a quantitative analyst within the investment industry from 1986-1999. Transplanted from New York (still a Mets Fan), he currently lives in Arizona with his wife Mary , daughter Hannah, and son Adam. Having won a "trophy room" of Fantasy Sports Championships over the last 20 years, he hopes to continue to lead you in the same direction.