Hi folks, as we all know the second portion of the season is pivotal in our quest to have an admirable finish. I always say that you need two things to win a fantasy championship: Skill & the absence of Bad Luck. Since Good Luck and No Skill are less likely win a fantasy championship, I would say that skill is the prevailing determinant in achieving success. As a subscriber you already know that we base our skill on Sabermetric fundamentals (such as such as BHIP%, Runners Stranded %, K%, EYE%, LD% & XBH allowed %.) However when it comes to the second half, these indicators start having less credence and we need to consider other less explainable indicators. This is a major reason I do not go beyond the second half in my ranking publications.
Simply put, everything beyond this point of the season starts relying less on a linear regression and more on non quantifiable factors. Let's face it, from a mathematical perspective we have a decent sample size to work with (80 games), thus anomalies should be working themselves away at this stage. This is the point in the season when it's time to look at the regression to the mean concept and consider that maybe there is a reason why Pitcher X has a been blighted with a higher than typical Balls Hit Into Play success percentage (BHIP%). Maybe Pitcher X is leaving the ball over the plate this year because of an quad ailment or a mechanical flaw that he might not recover/discover this season. Sure an abnormally low K ratio may offer some insight, but unfortunately it's not that obvious in many of the outlying cases. No matter how much statistical analysis one applies, one has to be willing to accept a lower success percentage on any Sabermetric indicator that is applied from this point forward. Thus we post this second half pitchers ranking with consideration to the physiology of seasonal performance:
Every season we come across players who unexplainably perform at higher or lower levels during certain periods of the season. One possible explanation behind the phenomena: second half "positive trends" are due to the players inability to "get it into gear" during the first half, or the ability to "let it all out" during the second half. MLB player performances, unlike the well established principals of the stock market, do not take "random walks" but rather fall into clearly defined patterns. There are many possible explanations why players repeat trend patterns, but sometimes knowing "why" isn't as important as knowing "who".
Good Luck in the Second Half of the Season! - Anthony A. Perri
Notable 2nd Half Risers include (in order):
Second Half difficulty has arisen on (based on a 3 year average) for the following: