Derek Jeter:
Remember when it was chic to rip Derek Jeter as an overrated fantasy asset, citing the drafting on name value and being able to get 85% of the value from late round lesser names like Orlando Cabrera? Well with new Yankees Stadium around and improving skills (even at age 35), Jeter’s become one of the best draft day values in fantasy. In a disappointing day for the Yanks, Cap’n Jetes went 3-4 with an RBI. He’s the 2nd ranked SS in fantasy and a Top 20 player overall on pace for a 20-20 season with a batting average over .320 along with a 100+ run pace. His EYE and his XBH Rate have both improved over his 2008 totals, with the XBH Rate jumping back to just shy of the 2005-2007 levels. Interestingly enough Jeter’s gone from overrated to underrated and doesn’t have the same fantasy name value as some of the other premier MI options like Kinsler, Rollins, Pedroia, but other than Hanley Ramirez he’s the most valuable MI option in fantasy.
Alex Rios:
Rios has struggled mightily since coming over to the White Sox, going just 3-19 with 6 K’s. While the move to Chicago should help Rios’ value long-term, his 2009 season has been mired with a distinct drop in his power peripherals. After posting an XBH Rate of 11% or more in each of the last 3 seasons, Rios’ XBH Rate has dipped to 9.2%. Some of this would appear to be poor luck as a sub .285 BABIP is hiding a few 2B’s in there, but his LD Rate has also dropped over 2%. He’s not making much hard contact since coming over to the Sox with a GB Rate above 55% and a measly 9% LD Rate, but some of this can probably be attributed to forcing things a bit. The White Sox have a favorable schedule returning home this week, but Rios is a mired in an ugly slump striking out in 30% of his August AB’s, suggesting he’ll need to make more consistent contact to actually reap the rewards of better luck in the future.
Junichi Tazawa:
Tazawa struggled in his 2nd start allowing 13 base-runners (10 hits, 3 BB’s) and 4 ER’s in 5 innings without striking a batter out. Tazawa flashed good control and K potential in his first outing at home against Detroit but was the exact opposite on Sunday struggling to find the zone and generating just 3 swings and misses on 42 swings. He posted impressive results at the AA level but had little experience at AAA before being called up. As I’ve stated with other youngsters like Clay Buchholz and Phil Hughes, I think the biggest developmental jump in baseball is from the minor leagues to the AL East and as such I don’t recommend employing Tazawa on your fantasy roster this season. Let the growing pains take place on the waiver wire or better yet someone else’s roster.
Aubrey Huff:
Huff owners continue to wait for the 2nd half jolt that we’ve seen throughout his career (career .776 1st half OPS vs. .867 2nd half OPS), but as Schuyler mentioned a few weeks back there’s some very real erosion in skill from Huff that may be signaling the decline phase in his career. Huff’s GB Rate has climbed back up to 47% this season and his XBH Rate has deteriorated to just under 9%, making him a power hitter that doesn’t hit for much power. During the 1st half of the season he was showing improvements in his EYE, but over the last 6 weeks he’s posted a horrid .31 EYE. All signs to point to decline here and suggest Huff won’t be able to pull off the monstrous 2nd half we’ve been accustomed to over these last 7 weeks.
Ian Kinsler:
Kinsler made it 2 HR’s in 2 games since returning from the DL as he put together his 2nd 2-3 effort in as many days. It’s unclear how the Rangers plan to handle the lineup when Nelson Cruz returns but with Julio Borbon hot atop the lineup, Kinsler’s been moved down to the 6th hole, a lineup change that should have a negative impact on Kinsler’s production. He’ll get less AB’s out of the 6-hole and while he’ll potentially have more RBI opportunities, the 3 guys hitting in front of him on Sunday had OBPs of .348, .321, and .314. So while the RBI opportunities in theory should increase they may actually stay very much the same, while Kinsler’s Run and SB totals likely take a hit. I’m hoping this is a short-term move, but while Kinsler owners should be happy he’s back, they should be a little disappointed with the shift in batting order.
