Alfonso Soriano (OF – Cubs)
With Soriano out for the remainder of the season following knee surgery, we can get a head start on evaluating what was his ’09 season. Soriano posted the lowest OPS of his 9 year career in ’09 (.726); but, while most are probably screaming diminishing skills, I see a trend that says something else is at play here. It appears as though that after 9 full seasons, pitchers have finally realized that Soriano can’t hit anything other than a fastball. In ’09, Soriano saw fastballs just 46% of the time (only Ryan Howard has seen fewer heaters this year), which is a 7.2% decrease relative to the percentage of fastballs that he saw in ’08. Certainly, not all of his awful season can be attributed to pitchers altering their approach, as he is most definitely on the decline as a hitter and base-stealer as well. However, I do feel that the diminishing skills argument will be overblown entering the 2010 drafts.
Chad Billingsley (SP – Dodgers)
Despite some silly swirling speculation, Chad Billingsley will retain his spot in the starting rotation down the stretch. It seems as though Billingsley has been a completely different pitcher in the 2nd half (5.34 ERA, 1.52 WHIP) than in the 1st (3.38 ERA, 1.23 WHIP). However, Billingsley’s 2nd half struggles have been largely attributable to poor luck, rather than poor pitching. Billingsley’s K/9 has declined from 8.56 to 7.25 from 1st half to 2nd, but his BB/9 has also declined from 3.96 to 3.15 from 1st half to 2nd. Overall, his K/BB ratio has only declined slightly from the 1st half to the 2nd (2.3 to 2.16). It is pretty clear as to what is the most indicative statistic concerning his 2nd half woes, and that is a BABIP of .350. I am not worried about Billingsley whatsoever, and his unlucky 2nd half will just make him more of a value on draft day 2010.
Josh Butler (SP – Brewers)
Josh Butler was called up to the majors on Tuesday. Butler has been quite the surprise performer in ’09, as he has made it through 4 separate levels in the minors in one season. The call to the big leagues means that Butler will have pitched in 5 different levels of baseball in ’09, which has to be quite the rare feat. Despite being a 2nd round pick in ’06, the fact that Butler is 24 years old and started the season at Rookie level ball speaks volumes as to his status as a prospect (perhaps non-status would be more appropriate). However, the season that he has posted in ’09, while not overwhelming, cannot be ignored (7.3 K/9, 3.3 BB/9). The most significant aspect of this season for Butler is that he actually posted his best numbers while pitching at Double-A (7.2 K/9, 2.9 BB/9 over 41 IP) and Triple-A (9.0 K/9, 0.6 BB/9 over 15 IP). Butler will be used mostly out of the bullpen in the final weeks, while perhaps picking up a spot start or two (possibly on Friday in place of Manny Parra). Butler is not a recommended option in any leagues this year, but he could be worth watching in 2010 as he has made gigantic improvements in just a year’s time.
Carlos Ruiz (C – Phillies)
In a year that has been bereft of fantasy-worthy catchers, Carlos Ruiz has been a nice little surprise that has remained under the radar. Ruiz has posted a .255 / .354 / .426 slash line over 298 at bats this season. Ruiz’s peripherals fully support this type of production and then some. Ruiz has a very good eye (12.6% BB rate), as well as elite contact skills (11.7% K rate, 88.7% contact rate), which have resulted in an EYE of 1.23 on the season. His 17.4% LD rate indicates that there is some room for upward growth in the BA department, since his .264 BABIP is on the unlucky side of things. Ruiz has provided solid NL-only value all season, but with his hot August (.951 OPS) and September (1.009 OPS), Ruiz should be garnering serious consideration in mixed leagues down the stretch.
Drew Stubbs (OF – Reds)
Drew Stubbs homered once again on Tuesday night, which now gives him twice as many HR in his 118 major league AB than he had in 411 AB in Triple-A this year. I’m not exactly sure what planet Dusty Baker lives on that he thinks a .301 OBP, 7.3% BB rate, and a 29.8% K rate makes for an ideal leadoff man… but I digress. Stubbs is an intriguing prospect from a tools perspective, but these tools have only produced reliable value in the SB category as of yet. The 6 HR appear to be an aberration based on his minor league track record, as well as his extra-base hit rate being a paltry 7.6% in the majors even with the 6 bombs. The low extra-base hit rate indicates that he is not really showing any consistent power, despite the bombs he has hit. He is a definite valuable commodity in the SB category over the final few weeks, but I would not expect to see many more HR this year.
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