Consistency Factor: an indicator designed to measure a player's Weekly and/or Daily quality production output using Fantistics Fantasy Production Indicator (FPI).

Below are the most consistent batters in 2009 with their 3 year averages. The number of weeks their output exceeded the average threshold factor of their peers (FPI), they registered a quality week. As you can see below, Albert Pujols was consistent 20 of his 26 weeks (a 75% consistency), and has been consistent 80% of his weeks over the last 3 years. This of course does not come as a surprise to anyone. What we are looking for in this exercise is players who showed remarkable consistency in 2009, but have not shown the same consistency in the past.

Again the purpose of this indicator is to allow us to easily recognize those hitters who produce on a consistent basis and those that do not. For those who play in a weekly head to head format, the value of this indicator is obvious. In this segment, I am making a case for Consistency Factor as a relevant indicator for all fantasy or rotisserie league formats.

My premise here is simple: established players who do not produce quality output on a consistent basis are at higher risk to achieve similar success in the future.  Essentially we want players who produce consistently rather than in sporadic episodes. The reasoning is a derivative of the laws of probability, consistency is paramount to lowering our risk...the more observations the better.

Consistency by it own summation does not come cheaply on draft day, as a consistently productive player will logically produce the best stats overall. Thus the real value of the Consistency Factor is to: 1. find or exclude the players who are not consistent in their production and 2. target young players who are showing consistent patterns. There are a distinct group of players that mask their yearly results based on a few hot weeks of production. As a fantasy GM in a non weekly or head to head format format, you might be saying: "SO WHAT...as long as he produces what is expected in his final year end statistics".

Here is the reasoning why I am suggesting that inconsistent players be avoided: Streaky players, for the most part, will never be consistent players. Thus placing faith in a player who only produces in small time frames exposes his fantasy GM to injury and playing time risks that are beyond the normal scope.

Injury Risk Consideration

It's simple, stay away from players who are both inconsistent and injury prone. The premise: consistent players will produce evenly throughout the season and will not be as adversely affected by missing playing time. Their opportunities for achievement are more spread out, which reduces their risk.

Playing Time Risk Consideration

A perfect example of a player who produced in streaks is Geoff Jenkins. Coming into 2006, Jenkins was the model of inconsistency for a player who usually ended the season with decent yet unspectacular numbers. A 27 HR/90 RBI/.290 BA were numbers most typical of his yearly production. Yet Jenkins only had 10 out of 26 weeks of quality production in 2004, and 11 out of 26 weeks in 2005. Most players in this final stats range usually have about 15 quality weeks of production. Jenkins was getting by with 40%+ less consistency. In 2006 however, Jenkins hit such a long streak of non production, he was essentially benched before he ever had a chance to reach his typical hot spurt. Hence the playing time risk consideration.

How to properly use Consistency Factor

These are two examples of the risk in taking established players who are not consistent in spacing their production evenly throughout the season. A premise based human behavioral patterns and the laws of probability. In thumbing through a list of consistent players and inconsistent players over the last 5 years, in most cases inconsistent weekly players (despite masking some years with quality year end numbers) have had more instances of disappointing seasons. To use this tool properly we need to compare apples to apples. Comparing Albert Pujols' consistency factor to that of a Geoff Jenkins doesn't aid us in any manner, as Pujols is a much more valuable player and this will not come as a surprise to anyone in your draft either.

Here's an example of how to effectively use Consistency Factor:

There are many players that are closely valued during the fantasy draft season. Consistency factor can be effectively used to make decisions when comparing similar commodities. Two such players in this year's draft are (typical 5x5 Roto format):

Derrek Lee:    92 R/31 HR/101 RBI/.294 BA/2 SB $15 EAV$ (6rd round 7th selection ADP)

According to ADP (Average Draft Position - included in our projections software) Youkilis is being selected 3 rounds ahead of Lee. I believe this gap should be much closer if not in reverse.  Consider that Youkilis produced above average results in 13 of his 23 playing weeks last year (57%), while Lee produced above average production in 17 of his 23 weeks (78%). Not only was Lee's production better last year, but Lee has produced on a more consistent basis over the last 3 years (70% to Fielder's 51).

My Bottom line: Without any other factors to consider, and based on these consistency indicators, I would rather ride with Lee this year than I would with Youkilis. It's certainly not a 'slam-dunk", as these are 2 very similar commodities.  In the end the fantasy team that comes out ahead, is usually the owner that knowingly or unknowingly does a better job of consistently playing the percentages.

There are a considerable amount of easier calls to make when looking at those players who had a bounce back season in 2009 without the consistency levels that we like to see. Players that I'm weary about heading into 2010, who had an above average season in 2009 (but have a poor 3 year consistency factor) include: See full list (players highlighted in red) here.

For those who are interested in consistency factor (register), it's conveniently listed for each player in the Forecaster section of the projections screen (see example below) and also are listed as a sort-able column as wellon the projections screen (Select Columns WC for Weekly Consistency and DC for Daily Consistency).

Anthony A. Perri

Statistician and Publisher -Fantistics Insiderbaseball.com

See our Consistency Factor in action using our Player Projections Software in the Forecaster tab for each player.  You can also sort a player's 2009 Weekly Consistency (WC) and Daily Consistency (DC) by selecting to view those columns in the Player Projections software.