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Fantasy Baseball Player Projections Blog 2/09/2009

February 9, 2010 | article by Anthony A. Perri in Preseason Prep (199)

Hi Folks,

Welcome to the start of our 2010 preseason newsletter. Over the next 2 months we'll be discussing a wide range of topics related to fantasy baseball. From draft insight & strategy to minor league prospects....you'll find it here, on our blog pages, and also in our twitter updates. Later this month we're going to begin our annual daily preseason player projection notes.

Lets start off with a topic that will be one of the strategy themes for our subscribers this fantasy pre-season.

2010: Say Hello to The Dominance of Starting Pitching Part 1

In preparing the leader boards for this year’s Baseball Chartist, I was amazed at the dramatic shift in hitter production we have seen in the last decade. We all know that the power numbers are down now that baseball has started to clamp down on PEDs….what you might not know is that raw power numbers are down by 10+ %.

Lets take a look at batters who received more than 375 ABs in the last decade (2000-2009). There is no other year before 2000, that registers more offensive production in terms of HR/Run/RBI (as a grouping) among the top 200 or so hitters in baseball. It may be safe to say that 2000 was the height of the Steroid/PEDs ERA, or at least there were more hitters on the juice than pitchers. Although 1999 was a close runner up partly in thanks to the McGuire/Sosa horse and pony show.

To best illustrate this, lets take a look at the Top Tier hitters in terms of Slugging % from the start of the decade to the end. I purposely choose Slugging % as it has one of the highest correlations among the widely recognized baseball statistics. Here’s a listing of the batters with the highest Slugging % in 2000 (grouped by top 10/20/30/40):

Slugging % 2000
Top 10	0.660
Top 20	0.631
Top 30	0.611
Top 40	0.594

Now fast forward to 2009:

Slugging % 2009
Top 10	0.582
Top 20	0.564
Top 30	0.552
Top 40	0.543

Amazing, the top 40 players in 2000 averaged .594 SLUG, yet the top 10 players in 2009 only averaged .582 SLUG.

….and this just in from Mark McGuire and Barry Bonds: Steroids don’t enhance hand eye coordination. Right, but what about the effect of replacing the 87 octane with rocket fuel?

These numbers are not just an anomaly, they are a clear trend over the last 3 years, as compared to the 1999-2001 period. The reduction in the use of these PEDS has clearly affected overall offensive production. The number of runs scored per game is also off by almost 10%, the average number of RBIs are off by 10%, the average number of home runs are off by 11%. Also, as expected FPI or Fantasy Production Indicator has also dropped from an average of .70 to .62.

The point of this: Clearly the dynamics of the game has changed and so must our ability to factor in these changes in a fantasy baseball context. One observation that needs to be addressed: The degree of separation in the top tiers is vastly smaller now than is was 10 years ago (as the charts above illustrate). Which leads to the natural question, is there an overvaluation of batters in the 20-40 range on draft day 2010? The answer will be yes, as once again we are seeing an undervaluation of pitchers in early serpentine and auction drafts.

In a few days we'll talk about the pitcher's trend (which naturally is moving in the opposite direction).

As typical, we start with our Sabermetric analysis as it aids us in defining our preseason projections. These notes and other can be found in the notes section next to each of the players in the 2010 Player Projections Software. In no specific order, here we go:

Washburn, Jarrod Lucky BHIP allowed was 40 points below career norm, LOB% was 5% above norm, regression expected
Marquis, Jason Downturn expected, fundamentals were the same in '09, but results were better than in the last 5.
Millwood, Kevin XERA shows an ERA understated by 60 points, Strand% was 20% higher than norm, regression projected.
Lowe, Derek Struggled across the board in '09, most notably opponents hit .293 against him..most damage came in 2nd Half of 2009.
Buehrle, Mark I stay away from low K/I (.50) pitchers, as their results tend to be spotty.
Garland, Jon Pitched well in 2H (7 W, 3.22 ERA, 1.27), did not receive support in AZ deserved 6 more Wins in '09...will be aided greatly by move to Petco.
McCutchen, Daniel Excellent Control, has averaged <2 BB/9. Low 90s FB, with good Split finger fastball.
Zambrano, Carlos Deserved 13 Wins (9 actual) in '09, K/I % is back .90, bounce back to '08 expected.
Sabathia, CC Solid 2nd H (12W/3.20 ERA/1.20 WHIP), XERA was 38 points lower than actual.
Beckett, Josh Has had a sub 1.20 WHIP and .90+ K/I in 3 consecutive seasons, and 20+ QS in 3 of 4 years
Burnett, A.J. Won 3 less games than deserved in .09.
Dempster, Ryan Dempster regressed in '09 as expected, but deserved 3 more Wins. Bouce back expected.
Penny, Brad Decent 2H in '09 (1.29 WHIP / 4.96 ERA)
Oswalt, Roy LOB% (.69) has been dropping steadily since '07, while ERA has been rising. Health concern.
Pavano, Carl Poor Strand% (.65) accounted for a poor ERA, but health is always a concern
Vazquez, Javier Career season, Strand% was 15% higher than career norm, regression in the AL expected.
Lilly, Ted Deserved 16 Wins (vs. 12 actual) in '09, but LOB% was 5% higher than norm
Pettitte, Andy Pitched his best season in the last 5 in '09, likely to regress based on age.
Hudson, Tim Poor K/I ratio (.65), keeps him at the mercy of the % on BHIP. Comeback expected.
Zito, Barry K/I ratio (.80) increased by 20% in '09, which lead to normal LOB% (.73). Sustainable results.
Padilla, Vicente Won 4 more games than deserved in '09. Regression expected.
Silva, Carlos One of the highest contact ratios among starters in MLB, and the results are indicative. Batters have hit over .300 against him 3 of last 4 years.