Atlanta Braves Prospect
OF Jason Heyward
The Braves boast one of baseball's top prospect in 20-year-old Jason Heyward. Already 6-4 220 lbs, Jason won't be 21 until August 9th but the 14th overall pick in the 2007 draft entered the 2009 season as Baseball America's #5 prospect. He ended the season as the #1 prospect, winning BA's Minor League player of the year.
An elite athlete,
Heyward has a refined swing and pitch recognition skills well beyond his
years. Jason finished his A-ball tour with nearly a 10% walk rate and K
rate well below 20% and his zone rates have improved at each level. Last season we got a
peek at the power that everyone believes he will develop in spades. It
almost seems at this point that his power development is just a matter of
Jason deciding that he is going to drive the ball. Heyward has strong
contact ability and he obviously has the physical tools to hit with power
and he did it as just a teenager.
Jason hit .352 in 162 AA ABs
in his
'09
season with a .368 BHIP%. He slugged .611 in his first taste of AA with 7
HRs, 13 doubles and 4 triples giving him totals of 17, 25 and 4 in 351 ABs
between A+ and AA.
At AA Jason fanned just 11.7% of the time and walked 14.7% of the time. That settled our questions of how he would adjust to more sophisticated pitching at the higher levels and apparently it answered the Braves questions as well as they decided to give him a look at AAA. Jason went 4-for-11 before injuring his heel with 2 walks and 2 Ks.
Heyward still has some things to learn of course and he'll need to adjust to more sophisticated pitching as he jumps levels and of course he'll need to learn how to adapt when ask to by better competition, but there really are no worrisome flaws in his game right now.
It's hard at this point to declare that any other offensive prospect has a higher ceiling than Heyward. Given his age, his architecture, and his skill set, it's difficult to even set a ceiling here. All you can do is sit back and enjoy watching this kid grow up.
Heyward has an opportunity to win the job out of camp this year. To do so he'll have to relegate Matt Diaz and Melky Cabrera to a time share. It will be one of the most intriguing story lines this preseason.
2010 Projection: Assuming he starts the season with the team - 532 AB .286 BA / 81 Runs / 18 HRs / 70 RBI / 10 SBs / $6 Expected Auction Value
Current Average Draft Position (See ADP in software) - 18th round, likely to move up to the 12-14th round Fantistics Long-Term Fantasy Grade: A
Fantistics senior analyst Lou Blasi covers over 150 prospects every year in our Prospect Central area. Register for the 2010 season today.
February 15th
Hi Folks,
Here's another swing at a few key technical indicators that are shaping our 2010 pitcher projections. These along with other player notes can be found in the notes section in the player projections software. In no particular order:
Hunter, Tommy Only deserved 6 Wins in '09. Contact Pitcher that
will struggle with long ball. Has been pushed up system too fast. 2010
will be part of the learning curve.
Davis, Doug Despite subpar WHIP (1.50), deserved more wins (16
verses 9) than actual. 13 Wins projected to be his ceiling this year in
Milwaukee.
Carpenter, Chris Lucky BHIP (-22), a slight regression is likely.
Still a top talent. Above average team support (107) and Ballpark support
(113) (100 - mean).
Halladay, Roy Expected ERA was 56 points lower than expected, move
to NL should benefit him. Solid Team Support this year (111) should offset
ballpark support in Philly (92)
Lackey, John Torrid 2H (9 W/3.29 ERA/1.16 WHIP), 15 game winner in
'10
Cook, Aaron XERA was 53 points higher than actual, LOB% was 5%
higher than normal…yet ranks in 81 percentile over last 3 years in Quality
Starts.
Lee, Cliff For the 2nd year in a row XERA was 40+ higher than
actual, and LOB% was much like a reliever (.76). Risky selection as he
doesn't have strong team support (90)
Webb, Brandon Webb is reportedly near full health, top 5 pitcher
before '09 shoulder injury. His projection is reliant on his preseason.
Haren, Dan Deserved 18 Wins in '09 (14 actual), Lucky BHIP lower
opponents BA by 22 (.220). Slight regression expected. His Quality Start
Percentile ranks him at 100 (best in the majors) over the last 3 years.
Correia, Kevin Deserved +4 Wins in '09. Risk to repeat as his '09
innings (198) were 80% more than his previous season high.
Harden, Rich Pitched better in 2H (1.28 WHIP/3.65 ERA), but gave up
a career high HRs (23). Struggled at Wrigley (.455 SLG against), Arlington
no cake walk either
Jackson, Edwin Beware his 2nd H - 4.77 ERA/1.48 WHIP is masked by
his 3.62/1.26 '09 year end totals. His LOB% looks a bit high for a .75 K/I
pitcher.
Greinke, Zack Walked the tight rope with a .81 LOB%, expect ERA to
climb, encouraging K/I ratio of 1.06 has been climbing steadily over last
4 years, but should level here.
Kershaw, Clayton 1.44 IP/H and 1.08 K/I ratio indicate shear
dominance, but 4.8 BB/9 causes some early exits. Stud in the making.
De la Rosa, Jorge Solid 2H (12 W/3.39 ERA/1.29 WHIP), but beware as
those 10 W came with only 10 QS. 5.8 IP per start makes him risky to
repeat.
Guthrie, Jeremy LOB% dropped 10% fo .69, much in line with K rate.
Something may have been bothering him or he's declining at a rapid rate.
Snell, Ian Was a better pitcher in '09 despite a drop in K% ratio
(.61), if he can combine smarts with K's he could be a standout.
