Corner Infield Preview Part 1
First Base
Must Haves
Albert Pujols 1890 (STL) – Pujols is this year’s most expensive player, but with a few risks on my roster, I can ill afford to leave the best, and most consistent, offensive player in baseball off of my squad. If Pujols throws in 15 steals like he did last year, that’s just a little gravy. I won’t go in to an in depth analysis of Pujols because if I have to sell you on him from a skills standpoint, you shouldn’t be playing this game. Here’s where we have Albert ranking in the 5 roto categories as a 1B: SB (1), BA (1), HR (2), RBI (2), and RS (1).
Ryan Howard 1470 (PHI) – Howard is a tough choice not because of what he does, but because of his competition. However, the consistency in his power numbers are unbelievable. In his four full time seasons, his lowest RBI total is 136, which according to our projections would still leave him with the most RBI’s out of all batters. The same can be said for his HR totals, with his lowest being 45. In arguably the NL’s best lineup and an XBH% of 14 which is still inclining, there’s very little risk here. And if his new approach at the plate yields some increase in batting average, he’s a no brainer.
Joey Votto 1100 (CIN) – I wrote about Votto earlier in the pre-season. A quick recap: His okay EYE (.66), solid XBH% (13.6), FB% growth (30.7 to 39.3) and BB% growth (10 to 12.9) are all indicators that this 26 YO power hitting first basemen will just continue to get better. He’s a good bet to go 100/100 along with a .300 batting average and 30+ homers. A handful of steals out of your first basemen also doesn’t hurt. We don’t have any batters at or below Votto’s salary projected to go 100/100.
Can’t Argue Against
Mark Teixeira 1450 (NYY) – Teixeira raked with the Yankees last season, and it should be more of the same this season. If anything, we should see an uptick in Teixeira’s numbers if he avoids another cold start. Also, his unlucky singles average cost him a .300 average, and we should see him right at or just above this number in ’10.
Prince Fielder 1520 (MLW) – Fielder is 25 YO and coming off of a 141 RBI season. No-brainer right? Well, I’d rather have Howard for 50k cheaper. Fielder has more questions at the top of the lineup than Howard, and he is unlikely to duplicate a 24% RBI% as noted in our projection software. Fielder never had a BABIP over .300 in three seasons previous to last year, yet he posted a .315 mark last season. With that likely to come down, Fielder is not a safer bet in batting average than Howard, and Howard has a longer track record of elite RBI totals. Still, he’s by no means a bad selection, but I’d prefer Howard or Teixeira over him.
Just Misses the Cut
Miguel Cabrera 1630 (DET) – Outside of Pujols, Cabrera is your best choice for BA at the first base position. However, he doesn’t possess elite power (never hit more than 40 HR), and he hits in a weaker lineup than any of the other top tier candidates making him an RBI risk (at least comparatively). If Cabrera was under 15k he might be a consideration, but it is doubtful that he will be worth his tag.
Billy Butler 1030 (KC) – There’s a lot to like about Butler. He enters the season at the ripe age of 23 coming off of a year in which he had 73 extra base hits! At his age we should expect Butler to muscle up a bit and turn at least a handful of his 51 doubles into round trippers. However, he plays for the Royals, who are pretty inept offensively. This keeps him from passing Votto, and I don’t recommend going with two of the middle tier first basemen when the top first basemen are all extremely talented, yet safe choices, unless you decide on taking four first basemen.
In conclusion, I’ve taken risks at this position before (Casey Kotchmann – 08, Chris Davis – 09), and it rarely works out. There are just too many easy picks at the top tier levels to get fancy here.
