2010 DC Catcher Preview
I hate catchers. I can never get this position right, much in part to the fact that I refuse to play it safe. Well, I guess old habits die hard. After making one of my goals of the season to not make a complete mess of the catcher position, I’m on a collision course to do just that.
My picks: Matt Wieters (BAL) 650 and Lou Marson/Carlos Santana (CLE) 280
The Rationale:
Matt Wieters - Wieters may not live up the hype he has carried into the majors as quickly as some have thought, but there’s just too much upside here at a position where that’s usually a rarity. For starters, after struggling initially at the major league level (a .147/.297/.388 in 85 bats over the first half of the season) Wieters improved considerably and quickly with a .301/.354/.420 second half over 269 at bats. His patience also started to develop towards the end of the season as he posted season highs in EYE and BB% over the last month of the season. Wieters has the chance to put up a Victor Martinez type season at a much lower price, and even if he does not put up those type of numbers, he will certainly be worth his tag. Fantistics has him pegged for a .305 AVG and 18 HR.
Lou Marson/Carlos Santana - The plan here is to take Marson until Santana gets called up and then burn for Santana. Many people feel Marson’s “dead weight” over the first few months of the season will put me in a position where I will not be able to recover. Well, let’s crunch some numbers. First of all, one of the strengths of the Fantistics projection system has been its ability to accurately project playing time situations. Currently, Fantistics has Marson projected for 6 HR, a .263 AVG, 42 R, and 19 RBI over 293 at bats, and Santana projected for 16 HR, a .285 AVG, 67 R, and 70 RBI over 369 at bats. Let’s conservatively assume we lose 1/3rd of Marson’s at bats for when he plays after Santana is called up in order to give Santana a day of rest from time to time. That leaves us with 564 at bats with 20 HR, a .277 AVG, 95 R, and 82 RBI. Now, this is based on an optimistic projection for Santana, but even if we lower the counting stats by 20% (16 HR, 76 R, and 66 RBI) and assume a .270 total BA, isn’t that worth a 280 tag over a full season? It’s a risk, for sure, but one worth taking when looking at the big picture.
I can’t argue against playing it safe with Martinez or Mauer. However, I started my first few attempts at a roster with Mauer locked in, and the numbers just didn’t work out as well as they did when I went cheap at catcher. Also, Mauer is doubtful to repeat last year’s numbers. Let’s take a look:
Joe Mauer (MIN) 1310 - His LD% was a spectacular 22.6%; however, it was right in line with his career mark of 22.5%. Yet, his BABIP was a career high of .373, which was 29 points above his career average BABIP of .344. Furthermore, his singles average was a ridiculously high .329. Here are his marks in that category since 2005 - .276/.308/.258/.299/.329. Clearly the .329 is an outlier, and we should expect Mauer’s BA to be more around .330 rather than .360. Now, Mauer certainly developed his power last season, but his HR/FB% of 20.5 seems unlikely to be repeated. So, with all that said Mauer is a safe choice, but the unlikelihood of him exceeding or repeating last season’s numbers prevent him from being a lock at 1310, although he is certainly playable at that price.
I am confident in my catcher strategy, but there’s a good chance I’ll choose to eliminate a little bit of risk from my plan by carrying a backup catcher and eliminating one of my 13 starting pitchers, which appears to be excessive.
If I do decide to go that route, I will probably target one of a handful of catchers below the 7k salary mark that appear to provide decent value: Geovany Soto (600), Mike Napoli (680), Miguel Montero (610), Ryan Doumit (670), and Chris Iannetta (590).
The two favorites right now are Soto and Doumit, who are both coming off of disappointing, injury plagued seasons and are expected to bounce back. Currently, I favor Soto. Despite his bad season, his EYE grew from .51 to .65, which is an admirable leap for someone who struggled mightily at the plate. In fact most of his batting average deficiency can be attributed to bad luck. He had a .184 singles average, which is well below the MLB average of around .245. I expect Soto to post ’10 numbers right in line with his ’08 numbers, minus a few batting average points.
Again, feel free to comment below if you have any thoughts or want me to address any players that weren’t mentioned as it’s d to cover everyone with so many different options out there.
Fantistics Player Projections Software supports more league formats than any other program in existence (Over 75 scoring options). Fanball's Diamond Challenge is just one of the many scoring formats supported. You can see the Diamond Challenge player Salaries in our software, and compare those salaries to our Valuations to find relative value as you compile your ultimate CDM roster.
Brian
Mar 1, 10 at 11:30 PM
Nice job Leone - I agree with you on Mauer, and I think you should carry Doumit or Soto to play it safe. I like either of these guys over Montero. Good luck this year.
andrew
Mar 1, 10 at 11:30 PM
If you're right, you'll be on the BB for the whole season. Personally, I played w/out Mauer last year and still finished top 60 OA. Outlier/schmoutlier I'm not going to watch Mauer for another whole year as he ENTERS his prime. Btw, Escobar/Cabrera are risky to say the least. I guess if Grady soars and Ethier turns into Manny, it'll be worth it.
Michael
Mar 1, 10 at 11:30 PM
So what is the big deal if Mauer goes from .360 to .330? He is still light years ahead of anyone else at his position. All he needs to do is hit 20 HRs at a minimum and come close to 100 runs and rbis each and he will be well worth the 1310. Going cheaper with Doumit or Soto might work but going with a more certain palyer like Mauer and then augmenting him with someone like Carlos Gonzales/680 might be the better option.
Michael
Mar 1, 10 at 11:30 PM
So what is the big deal if Mauer goes from .360 to .330? He is still light years ahead of anyone else at his position. All he needs to do is hit 20 HRs at a minimum and come close to 100 runs and rbis each and he will be well worth the 1310. Going cheaper with Doumit or Soto might work but going with a more certain palyer like Mauer and then augmenting him with someone like Carlos Gonzales/680 might be the better option.
Mike Leone
Mar 1, 10 at 11:30 PM
Michael - I'm not arguing against Mauer being worth his salary, but I do feel that the drop off from .360 to .330 does prevent him from becoming a must have. His salary is right where it should be.
Andrew - Escobar is certainly a risk, but I'm actually taking Cabrera because I feel he's a safe pick. More on that when I get to the SS Preview though.
Parker
Mar 1, 10 at 11:30 PM
Enjoy the article. I am picking 11th in a 14 team Weekly points based league. I am failing in love with VMart in the second round. I know it seems high but he is projected to be the 15th rated batter in my scoring system (we have a K penalty). The extra at bats Mauer and VMart get puts them at a huge advantage in a points based league. I know catcher has more risk for injury than other positions but it is just hard to pass up the ability to crush more than half of the teams at the C position. Mike, do you agree with this line of thinking?
Parker
Mar 1, 10 at 11:30 PM
Enjoy the article. I am picking 11th in a 14 team Weekly points based league. I am failing in love with VMart in the second round. I know it seems high but he is projected to be the 15th rated batter in my scoring system (we have a K penalty). The extra at bats Mauer and VMart get puts them at a huge advantage in a points based league. I know catcher has more risk for injury than other positions but it is just hard to pass up the ability to crush more than half of the teams at the C position. Mike, do you agree with this line of thinking?
Grinsch
Mar 1, 10 at 11:30 PM
Michael, Michael, Michael....your catcher strategy is just flawed, mostly because I really don't see the savings/value put back into your lineup in other positions - I commented on the Grady/Hamilton picks when you did the OF rational (BTW - Hamilton is already "hurt"). If you are going to put money in other places rather then catcher DO NOT put it on risky selections on a hope players will bounce back or rookies will deliver. That's my only argument against what you are doing here. I rather put my money down on Mauer and Wieters where 75% of the others teams and 100% of teams knowing what they are doing will also have them on their rosters. That way I'm playing even on two slots and can gamble on the other positions for the "value" where there is more of a selection to find such value. Mauer is a lock for 4 of the five categories in the catcher position - my only concern is the unknown dynamics of the new ball park (anyone remember Wright of the Mets from last year). But as was already mention that is offset by the fact is is entering his prime. Soto/Doumit - both are "show me before I jump on the bandwagon" picks and again are too risky. Santana is a special player given his batting eye, I have no doubt on that. I'm going with the consensus here with Mauer/Wieters carrying only 2 catchers. I'll jump on Santana once he comes up and we see how he is doing in AAA and maybe the first few weeks using one of my FA picks for him. He will be a true value pick down the stretch especially facing the other call-ups.
Mike Leone
Mar 1, 10 at 11:30 PM
Parker - I haven't played in too many points leagues, so I'll do a little research and get back to you before I comment on your strategy.
Grinsch - All valid points. I guess, that's why they play the games! But in all seriousness, Hamilton is a risky play, but I do not feel the same way about Sizemore. If Hamilton isn't 100% come Opening Day, there is a good chance I'll have found a replacement for him.
Also, I try not to put too much stock into what other teams are going to do. Obviously, you don't want to miss out on a guy who is going to be 90% owned and play way above his salary level. That will kill you. At the same time, I'm not going to ignore the numbers I've crunched and go with what I feel is an inferior squad, just to eliminate risk at an individual position. It will be interesting to see how it plays out for sure.