Why Kurt Suzuki is ranked so high amongst Catchers:
A quick scroll through the top 10 projected catchers and you’ll find every catcher has an FPI above 0.64, with the exception of one: Kurt Suzuki. Suzuki’s 0.57 FPI doesn’t even rank inside the top 25 catchers, so how can a player so vastly inferior to his competitors in skill, be so much more valuable? The answer is simple: Playing Time. Suzuki is this decade’s Jason Kendall. Now, there was a point in Jason Kendall’s career where he was an elite offensive player; but once his power mysteriously vanished at age 27, he derived most of his fantasy value simply by taking the field more than his counterparts. Kurt Suzuki now does the same.
Catching at the major league level is a grind, both mentally and physically, and one that forces managers to give catchers consistent rest in hopes of keeping them fresh throughout the season. Managers with elite offensive catchers will do everything they can to keep their catchers in the lineup (either through use of the DH, or by spot-starting them at 1B) and thus the top tier benefits not only from elite skill but some modest excess playing time compared to their counterparts. As such, catchers tend to have a significant drop-off in the tiers of their value. This is the case this year with Victor Martinez, Joe Mauer, and Brian McCann representing a clear first tier, before a rather significant fall-off. This leaves the next group of catchers to separate themselves with skill. But while catchers like Mike Napoli, Jorge Posada, and Ryan Doumit are all more skilled hitters than Kurt Suzuki, his superior advantage in opportunities makes him more valuable. Last year Suzuki earned the second most plate appearances of all catcher-eligible fantasy players (only behind Victor Martinez). This year our projections have him just behind the Top 3 and in line with consensus #4 Matt Wieters, with a solid 537 AB’s. Earning value simply by playing more seems like a risky proposition, but Suzuki should be in good shape to deliver. Not only has Suzuki proven durable during his first few major league seasons catching 147 and 148 games each of the last two seasons, but he has practically no competition in Oakland thanks to a unique roster crunch.
The A’s acquired Jake Fox during the offseason and Fox is out of minor league options. Rather than expose the former catcher turned DH to waivers, the A’s are going to work-around the issue by holding Fox on the roster as a platoon DH and backup Catcher. Now Fox can catch in an emergency, but it’s not something major league managers are comfortable relying on him for. As a result, Suzuki will be allowed to shoulder a heavy workload until the A’s roster sorts itself out (likely through injury), while Landon Powell (the prototypical backup catcher) will wait in AAA. So while other owners rush to grab more skilled catchers, let Suzuki’s extra opportunities and better lineup positioning help him rack up more counting stats.
While, we prefer the extra opportunities Suzuki gets, make sure to understand your league scoring when valuing Suzuki. In points-based leagues Suzuki’s extra playing time makes him a top 5 selection, but in sabermetric-influenced formats that focus more on ratios, his value dips dramatacillay.
Carlos Silva’s spring resurgence could impact Tom Gorzelanny
When the Cubs acquired Carlos Silva this offseason the goal was less about Silva as a pitcher and more about getting rid of Milton Bradley in the clubhouse, but with Ted Lilly’s injury and the departure of Rich Harden the Cubs are suddenly in need of starting pitching depth. Silva hasn’t been productive in quite some time and his peripherals, which weren’t great to begin with, have shown severe decline. Since Silva has never been able to strike batters out his gameplan has involved a heavy reliance on command and a sinker to induce ground balls that can help him get out of jams. But with erosion in both his BB Rate (3.26 BB/9 in ’09) and GB Rate (just 45% in ’09), Silva now shows no elite skills. This spring, however, Silva’s shown some ability to get back to his usual gameplan, having walked just 2 batters in 21 spring innings. The strikeouts aren’t there as he’s K-ed just 11, but those peripherals are back in line with some of the servicable numbers he posted in Minnesota.
Silva will never be a great fantasy asset because of the low K’s and the heavy dependence on BABIP for his ratio categories, but there’s a chance Silva can hold down the final rotation spot all year long. I still don’t advise investing in Silva even in NL-only formats as there’s far more potential downside than upside, but Silva’s spring emergence could potentially impact the long-term value of Tom Gorzelanny. A little good luck for Silva and a little bad luck for Gorzelanny would leave Gorzelanny’s spot in jeopardy with the return of Ted Lilly expected in late April. Silva didn’t appear to be much competition heading into the season after posting ERA’s above 5.90 in 3 of the last 4 seasons, but Gorzelanny’s long-term security looks like it could now be in question and his sleeper status takes a slight hit.
Johnny Cueto SP, CIN – Cueto was rocked in his final spring start allowing 10 hits and 5 ER’s over just 4 innings. The outing wrapped up a rather ugly spring for Cueto who allowed 25 hits in just 16 2/3 innings. The good news is Cueto struck out 6 and walked just 1, bringing his K:BB Ratio to 16:7 during those 16 2/3 innings. Both are a bit elevated compared to Cueto’s 2009 season where he posted a reduced 6.93 K/9 and 3.20 BB/9. After fading in the 2nd half (5.81 ERA, 1.58 WHIP), Cueto getting battered around this spring is certainly a cause for concern, but ultimately projecting Cueto comes down to a matter of faith. Do you believe the improved K Rates this spring suggest he can recover his great 1st half form, or is the 2nd half fade too much to overcome? Personally, I’m torn where Cueto was going in drafts there’s enough upside to take the chance, but my gut tells me Cueto (who battled some mild arm issues last year), might not be able to bounce back this season. As a result in leagues where I did take a chance on Cueto I’ll have him reserved early in the season to give me some more time to evaluate.
Charlie Haeger SP, LAD – Put one on the board for the knuckleballers as Charlie Haeger has won the final rotation spot with the Dodgers. Haeger sported a 2.38 ERA in 11 2/3 spring innings while striking out 10 and walking 5. While Haeger’s a nice story he doesn’t offer much fantasy value even pitching in the caverness Chavez Ravine. Haeger struggles with command, posting a minor league BB Rate of 4.0 BB/9 and doesn’t generate enough strikeouts to overcome it (6.3 K/9). He’s been tough to hit as you’d expect with the knuckle-baller, but the lack of command and inability to punch batters out should limit him at the major league level. There’s some small potential pitching in a friendly division and home park for some short-term value while the league adjusts, but Haeger’s unlikely to hold down the 5th spot in the rotation all season.
Brandon Webb SP, ARZ – Somewhat mixed results for Webb on Thursday as he supposedly received positive results from a meeting with doctors on Thursday and then was given a cortisone shot to help ease some swelling in the surgically repaired shoulder. Webb continues to indicate he’s not comfortable moving to the mound and still can’t “let it go”. Shoulder injuries are the most difficult injuries to project for pitchers and Webb’s made little progress in his rehab, having seemingly stalled out at long-toss and flat ground. At this point I’m avoiding Webb in leagues that don’t have DL spots or deep benches. I just don’t have a great feeling about a potential recovery.
Blake DeWitt 2B, LAD – It’s been an unusual turn of events at the Dodgers 2B position since the middle of last season. Orlando Hudson had been brought in on a one year contract and was off to a decent start, but then Hudson slumped to the finish and suddenly Ronnie Belliard was the starting 2B in LA during the playoffs. Once Hudson walked in FA it was assumed Belliard had the inside track at the starting job, but as the spring went on Belliard focused on cutting weight to earn his contract, while Blake DeWitt took the reigns on the 2B job. DeWitt has hit .339/.439/.536 this spring showing a combination of patience and power. In DeWitt’s minor league career he’s flashed both those skills but hasn’t been able to put them together in the same season (best minor league season was an .852 OPS at AAA in ’08). Last year he showed the patience with a solid 11.8% BB Rate, but couldn’t muster the power (.426 Slug). He’s always struggled a bit with contact, posting K Rates consistently above 14%, and with little speed he’ll offer little fantasy value. There will be value in his AB’s for NL Only players, but DeWitt isn’t much of a sleeper for anything beyond NL-Only. A .260-55-11-60 type line seems like a fair expectation.
Ian Kennedy SP, ARZ – Kennedy closed out a solid spring with a solid 5 2/3 innings on Thursday, allowing just 2 ER’s on 5 hits and 1 BB, while striking out 4. He finishes the spring with a 2.88 ERA with 17 K’s and 5 BB’s in 25 IP. Kennedy seemed like a 4A pitcher in the Yankees system as he struggled trusting his stuff at the major league level and became uncharacteristically walk prone. In the minors his trademark command coupled with good feel on his secondary stuff allowed him to put hitters away quickly, to the tune of a 9.9 K/9 (including 9.3 K/9 at AAA). Facing inferior competition in the NL should help Kennedy feel more comfortable attacking the plate. While he’ll still be HR prone pitching in ARZ, his ability to generate punch-outs and limit walks, makes him a nice sleeper. I think Kennedy figures things out this season and posts a solid 10-12 W, 4.10 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 150 K type season, making him a nice back-end starter in mixed leagues and a sweet breakout candidate in NL Only.
Carlos Beltran OF, NYM – We have some brief updates on the Beltran front. He apparently expects to begin running within the next 10 days and is still hopeful to return in early May. The Beltran prognosis over the last two years has been an absolute disaster with multiple diagnosis and timetables. Beltran’s been an extremely productive player the last few seasons when healthy and even battled through injuries last season to post a .325-50-10-48 line in just 300 ABs, but I’m skeptical of his ability to stay healthy after an offseason microfracture surgery. Without the ability to take days off from the OF, Beltran’s knee will likely require some days off throughout the season to try to keep him fresh even after he returns. I understand owners like the value of a potential 4th Rd pick in the 10th, but not only am I concerned about his ability to stay on the field but when on the field the knee issues could also impact his willingness to run. I’ll let someone else deal with that problem this year.
Jose Reyes SS, NYM – The Mets made it official on Thursday placing Jose Reyes on the DL to start the season with his thyroid issue. The Mets still refuse to identify a time-table (potentially to avoid further embarassment on the training staff) for Reyes return, though he will be eligible a week from Saturday. Few players have as wide of a range of potential results as Reyes does this season. A healthy DL-free season and Reyes could return to the value of a 1st rd pick offering boatloads of steals and runs and adding a much needed dimension to a thin Mets lineup. But even a mild setback or another trip up by the Mets training staff and Reyes could struggle to outproduce other younger SS’s who are being drafted well after him (guys like A. Escobar and E. Andrus). My lack of faith in the Mets training staff is effecting my willingess to invest in either Beltran or Reyes this season and as a result I’m ending up with guys like Yunel Escobar and E. Andrus much more often than Jose Reyes in my leagues.
Ryan Garko 1B, TEX – The Rangers have been searching for a RH potential platoon mate for Chris Davis at 1B all offseason and on Thursday they found their man with a waiver claim in on Ryan Garko. Garko had just been released in SEA and he’ll slide into a much more favorable role in TEX where there is an obvious immediate need and a far friendlier home park. He won’t serve as a threat to Chris Davis and the extra time off against LH’s should actually help Davis’ AVG a decent bit. Garko may deserve some attention in a reserve round for AL Only players, but outside of that the impacts here are to Mike Lowell (who will now stay in Boston) and a mild impact to Chris Davis. I’d also expect this platoon would help the Rangers give Justin Smoak a full season at AAA before getting a look at him in September.
Joe Blanton SP, PHI – A tough early season blow for Joe Blanton owners as Blanton suffered an oblique strain and was immediately placed on the DL. Blanton is expected to miss somewhere between 3-6 weeks which will chop off somewhere around 15-20% off his projection this year. We’ve liked the steps Blanton has taken forward in his K Rate since moving to the NL and expected another solid year of W’s, K’s and with average ratio production. In traditional mixed formats (10 team leagues) he can be dropped or placed on the DL if a roster spot is needed as much of his production and value had come in his durability. While Blanton is out similar pitchers in terms of production and skill will emerge throughout the season.
Ian Kinsler 2B, TEX – Kinsler owners who had been waiting for the official confirmation as to Kinsler’s status to open the season got it on Thursday in comments by GM Jon Daniels. Daniels indicated the Rangers had yet to make the official roster move but had made the decision that Kinsler would start the season on the DL. There were some positive signs within the comments as Daniels indicated Kinsler had taken some steps forward in recent days, some hurdles they had been waiting for him to clear, but I’m not certain what he was referencing. Kinsler reportedly has yet to begin running or doing any agility drills since suffering the high ankle sprain. The Rangers taking their time placing Kinsler on the DL suggests this injury could leak a couple weeks into the season. Though Kinsler has always shown immense talent and per-AB production, this is the weakness his owners know all too well. The fragile Kinsler has eclipsed 130 games in a season just once as a major leaguer.
Julio Lugo SS, BAL – This is a fringe move for AL-only leaguers but Julio Lugo was acquired in a trade with the Cardinals and will now serve as the primary MI backup in BAL behind Caesar Izturis and Brian Roberts. Depth at that spot was a necessity and while Lugo might be a slightly better bat than Izturis it’s unlikely he supplants him as the everyday SS because of his questionable glove. The real impact of this deal may be an increased comfort level for NL-only players with the Cardinals MI as Brendan Ryan, Skip Schumaker and Felipe Lopez look locked in for 400+ AB’s (with Lopez filling in around the diamond and Schumaker/Ryan comprising the everyday MI combo). This was likely the case regardless of the Lugo trade, but owners have one less name to worry about in the mix.
Nate Robertson SP, FLA – Robertson made a nice impression for his new team on Thursday limiting the Cardinals to 2 hits and 1 ER over 7 innings. Robertson brings a much needed veteran presence to the Marlins pitching staff that can hopefully be penciled in for 150+ innings. The league switch should help Robertson. He’s had adequate command throughout his career but struggled to get AL hitters to swing and miss. With a slight up-tick in his K Rate (possibly to low 6’s/9), Robertson could conceivably post a 4.10 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 135 K season with 10+ W’s. Nothing spectacular, but he’s become a solid NL-only SP option, making him fantasy relevant (something he wasn’t as of two days ago).
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