Garrett Jones:
Just as quickly as Garrett Jones started in the first 10 days of the season, he’s faded in the next 10 days. Jones is mired in a 3-19 slump with 6 K’s and 0 extra base hits over the last 7 games. As a free-swinging power hitter, Jones is going to be prone to some level of streakiness and he’s currently mired in a slump. The good news for Jones owners is that all his indicators are actually showing significant improvement early in the season. Jones is walking at nearly a 20% Rate (up from his 11% Rate last season), while he’s cut down his K’s (just 14.6% compared to 24.2% last season). He’s swinging at 7% less pitches out of the zone and as a result doing less to help his opponents get him out. The only negative indicator for Jones so far is that he’s hitting far too many balls on the ground (59%). This hasn’t been an issue in the past for Jones, so I’m not concerned long-term, it appears to be just part of his current funk that he’s in. A .179 BABIP also indicates he’s been struck with some bad luck while putting the ball in play more often. This slump looks like a nice buy low opportunity as owners may be convinced Jones was just a one year wonder. We still like him for the .270, 30 HR’s, 80 RBI projection we tagged on him in the preseason.
Ubaldo Jimenez:
Jimenez followed up his no-hitter with 7 1/3 more shutout innings on Thursday against the Nationals. After posting just a 46% GB Rate in his first 3 starts, Jimenez got back to pounding the ball into the ground, recording a whopping 15 ground outs to go with his 5 K’s, and 1 caught stealing (only 1 Fly Out). That extreme GB Rate coupled with Jimenez’s ability to get punchouts (8.17 K/9 last season) is the reason we were so high on Jimenez coming into the year. Now, Jimenez is obviously benefiting from some good luck early in the season (88% LOB%, .277 BABIP against going into yesterday’s start), but he posted a 3.36 FIP last season and clearly has the skills to be an elite starter. Perhaps there’s a bit of a sell high opportunity if you can get someone like Jon Lester AND another good player, but Jimenez is going to be a great option all year long. The one concern here (and I tweeted about this yesterday) is Jimenez threw 121 pitches yesterday following up a 128 pitch outing that followed a 115 pitch outing. Jimenez is a horse (still throwing 97 in the 8th yesterday), but that kind of workload is significant early in the season and should be monitored going forward.
Chris Coghlan:
Few players are off to a slower start than the reigning ROY in the NL: Chris Coghlan. Coghlan went 0-3 again on Thursday, dropping his average to .123. We’d like to say this was the result of bad luck, but Coghlan’s yet to record an extra base hit and his K Rate has soared up over 22% after posting just a 15% rate last year. Although Coghlan’s 2009 campaign was boosted by a .365 BABIP, that indicated he was in line for regression; no one could have seen this coming. Coghlan’s displayed good plate discipline at the minor leagues and his plate discipline remained steady all season last year. In addition Coghlan posted a 10% XBH Rate at the minor league level, suggesting the 9.1% rate last seaosn was realistic. Because Coghlan derived so much value from BA last season and he isn’t an elite power-speed threat it was inevitable that his value would drop this season, but the level at which his stock has plummeted is surprising and even more surprising is how driven it is by poor peripherals. Coghlan will likely get back on track at some point, but there’s no indication it’s coming anytime soon.
Tom Gorzelanny:
It was another strong outing for Tom Gorzelanny. He cruised through 5 shutout innings allowing just 1 BB and 1 Hit while striking out 7. He seemed to run out of gas in the 6th as he allowed 3 base hits and a BB which led to 2 ER’s before exiting. Gorz hasn’t been given too much run support (no Cubs pitcher has so far) and as a result he’s 0-2 despite a 2.40 ERA. Gorzelanny’s continued a number of the improvements he displayed since coming over to the Cubs in a midseason trade last year. He’s continuing to generate K’s at a strong rate (14 in 15 IP) while showing improved command (5 BB’s in 15 IP). Couple those numbers with a 44% GB Rate and Gorzelanny is quietly looking like a solid mid-rotation fantasy starter. He should be owned in all NL leagues and mixed leagues with more than 14 teams, but those in 12 and 10 team leagues need to take a look as Gorzelanny is flashing really solid (nearly elite) peripherals early in the season, and carrying over some of the success he had late last season.
Chipper Jones:
We all know about the injury baggage that comes with owning Chipper Jones, but in past years the elite production when healthy has at least given an argument for rostering Jones. Last year that wasn’t the case as Jones lost command of the strike zone, saw his power sapped, and saw his batting average plummet all the way to .264. So which version of Chipper are we getting early in 2010? The answer appears to be closer to the good version. Chipper’s plate discipline has returned as has his power (13.5% XBH Rate). It’s not showing yet in his batting average as a .192 BHIP% is supressing an average that should be in the .310’s down into the .270’s. Jones is going to get hurt and for those in weekly leagues he’s going to be frustrating to own, but for those in daily leagues that can sub players in when Jones deals with his nagging injuries, all signs suggest he’s getting back to the elite per AB production we’ve become accustomed to throughout Chipper’s career.
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