Brad Hawpe - Hawpe is now 5-9 with 2 2B's and 2 HR's in the past two games after a couple of solo shots off of Mat Latos last night. At age 31 this year, Hawpe is probably a touch overvalued after last year's huge 1st half. His K rate has trickled upward a bit every season since 2005, and a fairly sizable decline in his LD rate last year (again, for the first time since 2005) was masked in his AVG by some pretty fair luck on balls in play. Combine those things with a second half in which he hit 240/370/442 and my expectations for Hawpe this year are fairly pessimistic. I wouldn't mind using him as a sell-high candidate at all if he does maintain this hot start for a bit.
Chase Headley - Much like Coors Field can turn singles hitters into sluggers, Petco Park can alter a hitter's approach just by its dimensions and environment. Chase Headley hit 208/300/351 at home last year, and you have to wonder how much influence that has on the evaporation of his power from his minor league days. It's tough to tell how much power we really should expect from Headley, as his minor league playing environments were about as far away from Petco as you could imagine, but I think it's safe to say an ISO of .130 wasn't on anyone's agenda. Headley is off to a hot start here in 2010, rapping out eight singles and a double in his first five games. I think he has some reasonable power upside this year (at age 26), but obviously the home environs will put a damper on that to some extent. He is a worthwhile option in most, if not all, formats for this year.
Jaime Garcia - Garcia looked very solid against a Brewers team that is tough on lefties yesterday, scattering three singles, a double, and three walks over six innings en route to a 7-1 win. Garcia walked three and struck out five with a GB:FB ratio of 10:3, which pretty much highlights my only concern with him: his control. I think it will be good enough for him to be a solid member of a rotation in any format this year, and his K numbers have always been solid enough to offer some real upside. With a start against the Mets slated for Week 2, I would definitely have him in there.
Kelly Johnson - Johnson doubled last night against the Pirates for his third straight game with an XBH, giving him an excellent start to the season with his new team. Johnson was viewed as a huge disappointment last season, but the vast majority of that lackluster performance was due to a BABIP that was 50 points lower than expected given his LD%. Moving to a better hitter's park coupled with a reversion to "normal" luck should allow Johnson to miraculously "outperform expectations" here in 2010. Our seemingly high forecast of roughly an .850 OPS doesn't seem far-fetched at all to me.
Carlos Marmol - Marmol fanned the side yesterday to pick up his second save in two chances for the Cubs, and with his velocity showing a noticeable uptick already this season, Marmol may surpass even the lofty expectations for him regarding his K rate. Marmol is so nasty that drawing a walk is virtually the only way hitters even have a chance against him...his career LD rate is around 15%, and he doesn't allow many homers at all. Marmol can survive with walk rates around 5.0 per nine because his K rate, HR rate, and LD% are so solid, so don't be afraid to have Marmol as your primary closer....I think he'll be one of the better ones in baseball this season.
