Starlin Castro:
I was pretty negative on Castro’s fantasy value upon his call-up and as a Cubs fan I think this surprised some. Even after his magnificent debut, I was heeding caution. Castro’s skill-set is immense, but he’s only 20. In addition as a 20 year old his power is more gap oriented than HR (only 10 professional HR’s) and his speed is very raw (69% success rate). Add in the fact that he’s hitting 8th, which limits his ceiling in R/RBI production and I don’t see Castro as much more than a BA contributor. Since his breakout first game Castro has reached base in every game picking up hits 7 of his first 8 games overall, but he’s scored just 3 Runs, and not recorded an RBI since his first game. He’s shown a tremendous EYE (2.50) for a 20 year old buoyed by an 89% Contact Rate, which is one of the reasons he’s hitting .370, but with an outside zone swing rate of 33.3%, Castro will eventually hit some bumps in the road. I think a reasonable projection for the 20 year old is something like .280/.330/.400 which would end up with something like 5 HR’s, 50 Runs and 55 RBI’s and maybe 10-15 SB’s. I just don’t see a lot of great fantasy value this year and outside of keeper or NL Only leagues, I don’t think he should be rostered as more than a BA help in the MI position.
Brian Wilson:
I’m sure Tim Lincecum was pretty nervous as he watched the Giants bullpen nearly implode once again while trying to preserve one of his wins. Brian Wilson allowed 3 base-runners to reach in the 9th inning of a 2-1 game before getting Kaz Matsui to fly out to left on a 14 pitch AB. Though Wilson labored through the inning on Saturday he’s been magnificent all year; showing significant improvements in his K Rate and GB Rate. He’s striking out over 12 batters per 9 and inducing GB’s in 65% of the balls in play and with a BB Rate just under 3.50, he’s establishing himself in that 2nd tier of elite closers behind Rivera and Broxton. A .350 BABIP has spelled some bad luck for Wilson despite the 9% LD Rate, so there’s room for improvement in the 1.13 WHIP. This will mark the 3rd consecutive season Wilson has improved his K Rate, his WHIP, and his LD Rate, very quietly becoming an elite closer.
Mike Leake:
I’m starting to come around on Mike Leake. Admittedly the only time I had caught him this year when writing about him back on April 23rd was his start against the Cubs in which he walked 7 in his major league debut. I saw a guy unwilling to attack the zone with fringy stuff. But after watching a couple additional outings, I saw some things that I really liked. His command is really advanced, as evidenced by the 8 BB’s in 34 IP since his first two starts (2.11 BB/9) and he induces plenty of GB’s (56%). His stuff isn’t overwhelming but he has a really advanced approach, what scouts would call “pitchability” and while I HATE laying comparisons on young pitchers the way he attacks hitters is very similar to Greg Maddux. He has 2 types of fastballs matched with a slider and changeup, giving him 4 offerings that all look similar out of his hand. He’ll then mix in the occasional curveball, but what he does is keep hitters off-balanced. On Saturday he did just that limiting the Cardinals to just 4 hits and 2 ER’s in 6 innings. He will pitch around guys as evidenced by his 3 BB’s (2 to Pujols, 1 to Holliday, 1 intentional), but the great GB Rate and decent K Rate will help him get out of jams. A .251 BABIP and LOB% above 76% suggest he’s been lucky, and while there will be a regression I view Leake as the kind of guy that may be able to outpitch his peripherals a bit. Ultimately I think he settles in as a plus matchups option in mixed, offering somewhere around a 4.00 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 150 K’s.
Yunel Escobar:
Escobar returned from the DL on Saturday night and promptly recorded another 0-for, this time going 0-3. Escobar’s been amongst my biggest disappointments this season as he’s posted just a .215/.295/.266 line that offers his owners nothing. Escobar has continued to show his great EYE (1.00, above .90 each of last 3 seasons), but an unusual XBH outage (4.5%) coupled with some bad luck (.243 BABIP) has seen his batting average fall into the low .200’s. The culprit appears all timing related early in the season as Escobar was hitting more GB’s at the sacrifice of his LD Rate. His contact rate has actually improved and his outside zone swing rate is up about 3% so perhaps some of it is just making contact with pitches he can’t drive as well. Once he settles back in we’d expect the good eye and solid XBH rate to translate to a BA closer to the .290+ he’s posted each of the last few seasons. Hitting 7th in the Braves lineup won’t do him any favors in Runs, but should provide some RBI opps. I’m still holding strong and waiting for the turnaround (at this point there’s little else you can do), though my hope for a .300-100-15-75 season boosted by hitting leadoff is all but gone. From here on out I’d be content with a prorated .290-75-10-75 season.
Aroldis Chapman:
With June approaching and super-2 arbitration status getting closer to the rear view window, it’s time to check in on some prospects in our daily notes. Aroldis Chapman drew rave reviews this spring as his stuff was as advertised and his command looked a little more advanced than anticipated; but down at AAA we’ve seen some of the warts that needed development. Chapman was pounded for 8 ER’s in his last start raising his ERA on the season to 4.53 and his WHIP to 1.63. The strikeout rate has been there as he’s piled up 41 in 35 innings (10.5 K/9), but the command has been an issue (21 BB’s, 5.4 BB/9). Everyone’s been expecting the call-up come June but with the command struggles Chapman’s exhibited and with no obvious spots in the rotation (perhaps Homer Bailey’s spot? But he just threw a shutout), I’m not expecting the Chapman call-up immediately. I think he’ll have to prove he can show better command (get the BB/9 down to 4) or will need an injury to open up a rotation spot. Perhaps the Reds call him up and use him out of the pen but at that point there’s little fantasy value for this year. In keeper leagues his immense stuff is still worth holding onto, but in redraft formats I’ve relinquished Chapman in any of the leagues I was stashing him and I suggest you do the same.
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