Trevor Cahill:
It looks like I was a bit conservative in my love for Trevor Cahill earlier in the year when I noted I didn’t think the K’s would come around enough that he’d be mixed league worthy. Well a quick look at Cahill’s June shows a stellar 32 K’s in 33 1/3 innings. It was only a matter of time that the strikeouts would come as Cahill’s minor league track record (9.9 K/9) had proven he could get hitters to swing and miss, but after posting a modest 4.5 K/9 last season we weren’t sure when. The time is now for Cahill and owners shouldn’t wait to pounce on him if available in your league. Few remember he was considered a similar if not better prospect in the A’s system than Brett Anderson and his heavy sinker has helped him draw comparisons to Brandon Webb. Now that the K’s have come along the upside is very very high. As with most GB pitchers there will be days when balls are finding holes (especially since they’ve yet to come this season, .235 BABIP, but Cahill’s repertoire has proven tough to square up (just 14% LD Rate). He looks like a #3-#4 fantasy SP from here on out and should be owned in all formats.
Scott Baker:
Baker was touched up again on Sunday giving up 6 ER’s on 11 hits in just 4 1/3 innings. He showed his usual great command, not issuing a walk, but struggled with the long ball giving up 3 HR’s. Baker’s yet to really get in a groove this season, posting just 7 quality starts in 16 outings, but his peripherals suggest he’s grown. His BB Rate is back down under 2 BB/9 and his K Rate has ticked up over 7.5 K/9. A historical FB pitcher, Baker has improved his GB Rate modestly up to 36%, but a BABIP north of .330 is causing all sorts of problems for Baker. Despite posting a horrid 6.07 ERA in June, Baker’s struck out 30 and walked just 3 in 29 2/3 innings. Baker went through a similar period last season in the 1st half, posting a 5.42 ERA before rebounding in the 2nd half with a 3.28 ERA. While Baker’s been struggling of late, all signs point to a nice turnaround; making him a nice buy-low candidate and someone owners won’t want to give up on.
Adam Lind:
About 3 weeks ago I noted the chances of a turnaround for Adam Lind didn’t look so good. Since then he’s gone just 11-62 with 16 K’s and just 3 XBH’s. The indicators haven’t improved since I touched on them back at the beginning of the month, the K Rate is still way too high (27%) and the ISO is actually dropping (down to .144). Even if the BABIP, which is low at .244, rebounds we’re looking at something like .260-30-9-35 the rest of the way. In shallow formats, specifically mixed 3 OF leagues he shouldn’t be owned and even in shallow 5 OF leagues, like 8 team leagues I’d look elsewhere as well. While there’s some hope that the skills he displayed last season come back, the chances appear slim.
Carlos Santana:
Early hat tip to our own Anthony Perri for being extremely aggressive in projecting Carlos Santana’s skill this season. In our preseason projections Perri tabbed Santana for a .285-57-14-60 line in only 92 games and ranked him just outside the top 10 fantasy catchers despite knowing he wouldn’t be called up until June. Well Santana is rewarding Mr. Perri and hopefully all of our subscribers with a torrid pace since being called up. He’s homered 4 times and collected 11 XBH’s in total in just 48 AB’s. As if the power weren’t enough, he’s walked 11 times and struck out just 6. He’s already scored 7 times and driven in 14 in his first 15 games. The pace will obviously slow, but the skills mentioned are clearly elite. I believe he’s easily a Top 5 catcher the rest of the way. If you’re a Santana owner…Enjoy! And thank Anthony Perri while you’re at it.
Austin Jackson:
Jackson returned to his starting CF position over the weekend going 4-8 and scoring 3 runs in the two games. As predicted we’ve seen some significant batting average regression from Jackson as his average has come all the way down to .307. However, with a .415 BABIP, there’s more room to go. With his EYE showing steady deterioration (.31, .20, .17) over the first 3 months of the season and the XBH Rate dropping (9.1%, 8.9%, 6.0%), Jackson looks like a poor bet for mixed leaguers the rest of the way. He doesn’t walk enough to capitalize on his lineup positioning enough in the Runs category and without much HR/RBI potential and significant batting average risk from here on out, Jackson looks like a guy that should only be deployed in AL only formats.
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