Ted Lilly- CHC- Cold- With a .208 BHIP headed into yesterday’s contest, Lilly had been blessed by good luck. Regression to the mean may have raised its ugly head as he gave up 8 runs (6 earned) on 9 hits and 3 walks while striking out 7 in 5.1 IP. Lilly’s control was decent, as only 33 of his 103 pitches were balls, but he was extremely hittable. Batters may have started to catch up with his reduced velocity. With a string of 7 quality starts before this one, there may still be an opportunity to sell high.
Jeff Francoeur-NYM- Hot- Francoeur has had a hot June, hitting .358 so far for the month. However, a big part of that can be attributed to luck. His BABIP of .395 for June, combined with only 3 walks in 57 PAs means that Francoeur’s lofty average isn’t sustainable.
J. D. Martin- WAS- Hot- Martin bounced back from a horrendous start the last time out to give up just 1 run on 8 hits while striking out 6 in 6 IP. Unfortunately his teammates were unable to score, so Martin took his 3rd loss and is still looking for his first victory, despite owning a 3.55 ERA. Martin’s primary asset is incredible control. In 41 IP at AAA Syracuse, before being called up to Washington, Martin allowed just 8 walks. He has been even more in command in the majors, giving up just 1 walk in 25.1 IP. Not allowing walks is a good thing for WHIP, and Martin’s 1.18 is solid. In his time up with the parent club in 2009, he had an uncharacteristically high (for Martin) BB/9 of 2.81. Now that he is on his second tour of the majors, Martin appears more settled and could provide some solid numbers the rest of the way.
Cole Hamels- PHI- Caution- Hamels is being worked harder than he has in each of the past two seasons. In 2009 he hit the 110-pitch mark 12 times and got there 11 times in 2008. In each of those seasons he hit exactly 110 pitches 3 times. So far in 2010, Hamels has thrown at least 113 pitches 6 times. He has hit that mark in each of his last 3 starts. The only other recent time when he has been pushed that far that many times in a row was in August and September of 2009 when he had 4 consecutive high-pitch games. He followed that up with a quality start, but then didn’t turn in a quality start the rest of the year in 3 regular season and 4 postseason outings. This doesn’t bode well.
Chipper Jones- ATL- Hot- We may be seeing regression to the mean in action. With a .203 BHIPx, Jones has certainly been on the short end of the luck stick so far in 2010. Over his last 4 games he is 6-for-14 with a homer so that might be turning around. At 38 years old, Jones’ sudden drop over the past 3 years in HR/FB from 17.5% to 12.8% to 6.3% could be a legitimate rapid deterioration, but it could also afford a buying opportunity if Jones is available cheap. He has 11 doubles in 225 PAs this year, about half of the 23 doubles he hit in 596 PAs in 2009. That is an indicator that his fly balls haven ‘t quite carried as far as they did, and that could be a result of his finger injury earlier this season. With a Batting EYE of 1.35, Jones is worth taking a risk on, especially if he can be had relatively inexpensively.
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