Bud Norris:
I think it might be time to start getting a bit excited about Bud Norris. Norris has always been a bit of a mystery. He’s posted tremendous K Rates throughout his career (9.39 K/9) but he’s always struggled with command (3.9 BB/9) and didn’t generate enough ground balls to get himself out of trouble (41% GB Rate). Well Norris has taken some small steps forward in his GB Rate this year, bumping it up to over 43% and of late he’s throwing a whole lot more strikes. After throwing just 58% of his pitches for strikes in April and May, he’s upped that rate to 62% in July and 63% in August. Now the BB’s have started to come down as he’s walked just 6 in his last 4 outings. He’s posted a 27:6 K:BB Ratio in 26 2/3 August innings and while the numbers are a bit inflated by his 14 K game the previous time out, K’s have never really been the problem in his career (BB’s and HR’s have been). He’s not going to be a fantasy ace or anything like that, but Jonathan Sanchez type numbers, that’s within the realm of possibility. He’ll get 2 starts next week @PHI, @NYM and owners in need of K’s should consider riding the hot streak.
Travis Wood:
Wood picked up right where he left off after his short stay in AAA as he tossed 6 2/3 strong innings against the DBacks. Wood allowed just 4 hits, 2 BB’s, and 1 ER while striking out 6 and the outing was good enough to pick up his 4th win of the season. While Wood has been incredibly consistent in his 9 starts (just 1 start with more than 3 ER’s), he’s also been incredibly fortunate. Wood’s peripherals: 7.06 K/9, 2.29 BB/9, 29% GB Rate, 22.5% LD Rate are more of a low 4’s ERA pitcher than a low 2’s ERA. A .212 BABIP is a big part of the success as is a HR/FB Rate of just 5.9%. Wood is a good young pitcher, but his production makes him look like an elite young pitcher. He’ll pitch in SF in his next outing which provides a favorable environment for his high fly ball tendencies and while I’m comfortable using him there, I’m aware regression is likely around the corner at some point. Owners should tread carefully and pick their spots with Wood. It’s fine to ride him while he’s hot, but expect some steps back in his performance over the rest of the season.
Chris Denorfia:
Tony Gwynn Jr’s potential season ending injury opens up a slight bump in value for Chris Denorfia as he has little natural competition for the CF spot on the roster. Denorfia’s been overlooked for years in major league organizations as he’s actually posted positive value at the plate (career .776 OPS) and in the field (career 4.0 UZR/150 in the OF) but hasn’t stuck as an everyday player in any organization. He’s a big downgrade defensively from Gwynn Jr. in CF but with few alternatives and Denorfia swinging a good bat, he looks likely to spend much of his time in CF. As a fantasy player Denorfia has sneaky value. He doesn’t get much lineup support from the Padres but he’s shown a sneaky power-speed combo throughout his minor league career, averaging around a 15 HR/20 SB and has hit 8 HR’s and swiped 6 SB’s in 200+ PA’s so far this season. As a back-end OF in mixed the power-speed combination has some value and with a little over 6 weeks to play I envision something like 5 more HR’s and 7 more SB’s the rest of the way.
Carlos Zambrano:
In his 3 starts since returning from the rotation Zambrano has now walked 15 and struck out 7. Fortunately thanks to some good luck he’s only allowed 5 ER’s despite the 30 base-runners in 16 2/3 innings. It’s a small sample size but he has managed to increase his GB Rate (54%) which has helped limit the damage. After having watched most of Zambrano’s starts throughout his career, command was never his specialty nor was lack of command much of a concern to Zambrano. He doesn’t mind walking batters (even said as much in his press conference on Thursday) as he’s always been able to get out of jams because of how hard he was to square up. But this season with decreased velocity and movement, Zambrano’s become far easier to square up. This is evident in a LD Rate that has crept above 20% after averaging below 18% for the last 4 seasons. With BB and K Rates heading in the wrong direction along with more balls being hit hard, Zambrano just doesn’t look like someone to trust in fantasy.
Ramon Hernandez:
I’ve been looking around for catchers in 2-catcher formats after losing Carlos Santana for the year and then having Cito Gaston withhold JP Arencibia from us and it seems I keep settling on Ramon Hernandez and John Jaso. Hernandez is playing just part time in Cincinnati sharing the catching duties with Ryan Hanigan, but Hernandez sure is hitting when he’s in there. He went 2-5 with a 3 Run HR on Thursday night pushing his OPS to .817 on the season. The pop that accompanied Hernandez throughout most of his career has come back this year as his ISO is back up to a respectable .134 and he’s accompanied the improved power with a better LD Rate that is helping him sustain a bit higher BABIP. He’s not sexy and he’s no longer the player he was in his prime (a 20 HR threat) but he’s still skilled with the bat, plays in a good park and lineup for hitters and makes for a decent stop-gap in 2 catcher formats. I’ve plugged him in and am enjoying the results.
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