Austin Jackson:
I remain perplexed that on September 19th, Austin Jackson sits with an average right at .300. The K Rate remains extremely high and while Jackson has posted a very strong 24% LD Rate, his career minor league LD Rate was just 16%. He hasn’t had a month this season in which his BABIP has been below .345, but the LD Rate hasn’t been quite that consistent: 37.5%, 28%, 14.3%, 25.7%. 20.9%, 17.5%. Still he’s hit .301 in the 1st half and .300 here in the 2nd half showing strong consistency in production despite the inconsistency in skill. Jackson should be a good player and a solid back-end fantasy contributor thanks in part to his 25-30 SB potential, but I just don’t see a replication of this level of batting average again. I’m looking for something closer to .280 next season along with decent but not great run production and little power. I believe he’ll likely be overvalued and more of a 4th-5th OF option in mixed leagues.
Danny Valencia:
Valencia is red hot again picking up mult-hit games in 3 of his last 4 and posting a 6 game hitting streak altogether. On Saturday he launched his 4th HR of the season in a 2-4 effort that included 3 RBI’s. I’m still not really sure how Valencia has maintained this level of success .340/.381/.467 after hitting .298/.353/.469 at the minor league level. He’s improved his K Rate at the major league level, showing great contact skills especially in the zone (91%). Sure a .379 BABIP has been at the heart of the strong batting average production, but his EYE and power rates suggest a line similar to his minor league line is plausible at the major league level. The batting average should fall, but I’d expect some improved power as he gets more PA’s. It looks like the Twins may have found their solution for 3B heading into next season. He’s not this good with the bat, but the good defense coupled with a .290-15 HR profile looks about right for Valencia.
Justin Masterson:
Masterson was originally moved to the bullpen for the remainder of the year as the Indians try to limit his innings but was handed a spot start when Mitch Talbot came up with shoulder inflammation. Masterson went 3 1/3 scoreless innings before the rains came and continued his strong run of improved command, walking none and striking out 4. He gave up just 4 hits and has now walked 2 or less in 6 consecutive starts. Not surprisingly during that period Masterson has posted a 2.43 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. With elite GB skills (59%) and a decent K Rate (6.80 K/9), if Masterson can become more of a command specialist he has a chance to make it as a starter. He’s actually posted a solid 4.06 FIP this season but has been hurt by a .331 BABIP and 66% LOB%. I’ve noted in the past some skepticism with Masterson’s ability to be a successful starter because of his issues getting LH’s out, but the recent run of success buoyed by improved command has me re-thinking that stance. His delivery will always make getting LH’s out a challenge, but if he can simply start limiting the BB’s, he may be able to surive as a Joel Pineiro type. He’ll likely close out the season in the pen where the Indians can better monitor the innings so there’s little value left for this season, but he’ll enter next year as a sleeper again.
Jed Lowrie:
We’re dealing with some sampling size issues, but Jed Lowrie’s improvements so far this season in his approximate 150 PA’s or so deserves some serious attention. Lowrie’s shown his usual great plate discipline posting a 12.7% BB Rate and 1.00 EYE but the big news is the power he’s flashed, posting a tremendous .234 ISO. Lowrie posted ISO’s above .200 a few times in his minor league career so this type of power isn’t unheard of for the 26 year old, but its especially intriguing for a player who is holding his own defensively at SS. It’s unclear how the Red Sox intend to use Lowrie with Marco Scutaro under contract at $5.5 Million for next season, but if Lowrie is given a chance for everyday AB’s he’ll be a very nice sleeper with SS eligibility next season.
Gordon Beckham:
With the Twins win yesterday and the White Sox loss to the Tigers the White Sox elimination number was reduced to 5. This is important for Gordon Beckham owners as news broke this week that the White Sox would likely shut Beckham down for good once they’re mathematically eliminated. Of course Beckham owners may not notice the difference as Beckham hasn’t played started since Wednesday. Thomas did a nice job profiling Beckham a couple days ago so I won’t go into too much depth here, but Beckham’s disappointing 2010 season looks more like a two steps back, one step forward type season for me. Beckham’s tremendous rookie campaign was likely too high an expectation going into his 2nd season. I believe Beckham’s solid 2nd half in which his XBH Rate jumped back to the 10% level he showed last season is a more representative sample to judge Beckham from. He’ll have some nice bounce-back potential next year.
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