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2011 Top of the Prospect Class

January 3, 2011 | article by Lou Blasi in

It is at this point every year when I am charged with telling you all about prospects who I think will make in impact in 2011. Last year at this time we talked about Cameron Maybin, Neftali Perez, Madison Bumgarner, Buster Posey, Chris Carter, Jason Heyward, Stephen Strasburg, Wade Davis, and Carlos Santana ... some hits, some misses ... But if it were easy, anyone could do it!

Here, in no particular order are some of the players we think we'll be talking a lot about in 2011.

Domonic Brown - Philadelphia Phillies

Brown is a toolsy, athletic player who has made terrific strides with his baseball skills, and over this past minor league season we have seen the sprouts of his power potential. Brown has a Darryl Strawberry type of build that is still short of it's peak development and it's not a reach to project him as a 25/20 player. I personally think he'll post a number of 30-HR seasons. If that's the case, he'll migrate towards the middle of the order and his SB numbers will suffer.

Brown's limiting factor is likely his zone command. Brown whittled his K rate to a reasonable 21.5% this year, especially when you consider the .602 SLG% he produced in AA and the .561 SLG% he produced in AAA.

The Phillies recognize that Brown still has some baseball development left to realize, and they are hopeful he'll accept more ABs in winter ball this year in order to be ready for a regular role in 2011. If he develops adequately and approaches those K rates in the majors he's going to be a special player.

Desmond Jennings - Tampa Bay Rays

Carl Crawford is Desmond Jennings' Jason Werth but the difference in Jennings case is that he is pointed towards a full time job with the big league club next year regardless of where Crawford ends up. The similarities between Jennings and Dominic Brown however are more compelling although Jennings sits closer to the Carl Crawford of the speed/power scale.

Jennings has also made big baseball strides over the last two seasons. His zone command reverted a bit in his second tour of AAA this year, as did his SLG% but he may have been a bit shelf worn.

I'm surprised the Rays aren't giving him more of a look so far this month, the experience would be helpful. But one skill that doesn't really need a ramp up period after the jump to the majors is speed, all you have to do is earn enough playing time to pile up the steals.

With regular playing time Jennings seems a pretty safe bet to steal 30, and in time I don't think 40+ is out of range by any means. Jennings won't produce a lot else but he'll post a respectable BA and a, relatively speaking, respectable SLG% for an SB guy.

Mike Moustakas - Kansas City Royals
Mike had a lot to prove this season after a sketchy start to his pro career, but he went off in his first go around at AA hitting .347/.413/.687 with 21 HRs in 259 ABs before his promotion to AAA. Once there, he put to rest all doubts about the neutrality of his AA ballpark by hitting 15 HRs in AAA in 225 ABs while batting .293/.314/.564.

If his .314 OBP jumped out at you, then you are developing a good eye. His 3.4% walk rate in AAA was abysmal and suggests he still has some maturing to do as a hitter. Combine that with the Royals desire to buy another service time year, and their refusal to include him in the September call ups, and it looks doubtful that Mike will start 2011 with the big club.

When he does arrive however Mike should hit for power and average and as we sit here today the runway to his full time job at 3B with the Royals, beginning sometime in June of next year.

Aroldis Chapman - Cincinnati Reds
Many of us thought perhaps Aroldis Chapman would have an impact on the 2010 season but the Reds had their own plans about his development.

This year Chapman flashed his 100+ MPH velocity at every stop in his AAA tour. At times his control has been somewhat questionable, but not enough to be a deal-breaker. Chapman has also developed his secondary stuff this year, most notably his slider, but he still needs a reasonable third pitch before he can be an effective as a major league starter. Despite the fact the Reds switched him to a relief role quite early this year, which has maximized his primary asset, his fastball, but also retarded the development of his secondary pitches, they still plan to develop him as a starter.

His experience the final month was helpful and he will be effective in 2011 ... sometimes extremely effective, on his velocity alone ... but expect some learning-curve starts in 2011.

Micheal Pineda - Seattle Mariners
As exciting as Aroldis Chapman is, by the time the roster expansion rolled around, I was most impressed by the Mariners' Micheal Pineda, the 21-year-old right-hander.

After a 8-1 campaign in AA with a 2.22 ERA, .236 OBA and 9.1/9 K rate over 77 IP, Michael was promoted to AAA where he pitched 62.1 IP with a .235 OBA, 11.0/9 K rate. People will focus on his 4.76 ERA in AAA this year but Michael suffered from a 66.8% LOB% and 12 of the 33 runs he's allowed in AAA have come in two starts, meaning he's pitched to a 3.41 ERA over his remaining 10 starts which sound about right given his 1.14 WHIP.

Pineda looks ready for the majors and I would have liked the M's to let him see some big league hitters this month but the team felt he'd thrown as many inning this year as they were going to let him throw.

Micheal will get a full shot the M's rotation in the spring and if he pitches well enough to grab it he could be effective out of the box this season.

J.P. Arencibia - Toronto Blue Jays

Nothing warms the heart of a fantasy baseball owner like a catcher who can hit. The Jays have J.P. Arencibia cued up for 2011 after a monster breakout season this year in AAA that produced 32 HRs in 412 ABs and a .301/.359/.626 (!) slash line.

Zone command is an issue and at times J.P. seems to stubbornly refuse to walk but his plus power makes him a valuable fantasy asset out of the catching slot.

John Buck holds the key here. If he, as expected leaves as a free agent this winter, that will likely be the Jay's choice, one that indicates they are ready to give J.P. the bulk of the playing time in 2011. The result of regular playing time for J.P. could be 20+ HRs and a respectable BA.

Freddie Freeman - Atlanta Braves
The Braves hoped to catch a stretch-run little lightening in a bottle with their acquisition of Derrek Lee last summer, losing an opportunity to give Freddie Freeman a look.

Freeman hit .319 in his first go around in AAA this year with a .378 OBP, and a .518 SLG% with 18 HRs in 461 ABs. Freddie did all this as a 20-year-old, as he turns 21 today. This was an encouraging bounce back year after an injury-hampered 2009.

Freddie fanned 18.2% of the time in AAA this year after an exceptional 12.8% K rate in 149 AA ABs in 2009. He has strong contact skills and is willing to take a walk, but the main question is whether he'll develop enough pop to hit the performance curve at 1B. He's still young and I think 20 pounds on his 6-5 frame will a big difference. In many ways Freeman remind you quite a bit of Lee himself at that age.

Still, I don't the Braves enter next season with Freeman at first. He's still young and he still has things to accomplish in the minors. You'll get an idea if the Braves agree by how they handle first base in the offseason. The better the veteran they sign or trade for, the longer they think Freeman needs.

Jeremy Hellickson - Tampa Bay Rays

Jeremy Hellickson is the victim of an embarrassment of riches in Tampa as the Rays are overstocked with good young starters. That's what found Hellickson in the Rays' bullpen last September, finding his feet as a major league pitcher.

The 6-1 right-hander has been MLB ready almost since the start of this season, his second in AAA, where he went 12-3 with a 2.45 ERA, .237 OBA, and 1.17 WHIP while fanning 9.4/9. Hellickson the total package with a heavy fastball, a decent curve, and a change up that seems to get better by the outing.

Jeremy's merely-good stuff plays up though, because of his professional and metal approach. He's a bull dog with outstanding control and in-zone command. He will also throw any pitch on either side of the plate and he attacks ABs.

Hellickson could, and probably should, be starting for any team in the majors now. In 2011, the Rays have to find 25 starts for him. I think he'll be effective at a #3 starter level immediately and there's potential for more.

2010 Archives:

Volume 1 Aroldis Chapman SP, Martin Perez SP, Jesus Montero C, Starlin Castro SS, Aaron Hicks CF

Volume 2 Tyson Ross RP, Mike Leake SP, Jenrry Mejia P, Michael Taylor OF, Dustin Ackley CF

Volume 3 Ike Davis 1B, Justin Smoak 1B, Scott Sizemore 2B, Jordan Lyles SP, Domonic Brown OF

Volume 4 Rhyne Hughes 1B, Tyler Colvin OF, Logan Morrison 1B, John Ely SP, Luke Hughes 3B

Volume 5 Jhoulys Chacin SP, Eric Young Jr. 2B/OF, Mike Moustakas 3B, Michael Kirkman SP, Julio Teheran SP

Volume 6 Stephen Strasburg SP, Ivan Nova SP, Brian Matusz SP, Mike Stanton OF, Casper Wells OF

Volume 7 Buster Posey C, Drew Storen RP, Carlos Santana C, Mike Minor SP, Kyle Gibson SP

Volume 8 Zack Braddock SP, Dan Hudson SP, Madison Bumgarner SP, Tim Beckham SS, Jeremy Hellickson SP

Volume 9 Pedro Alvarez 3B, Eric Hosmer 1B, Jacob Turner SP, Casey Kelly SP, Kyle Drabek SP

Volume 10 2010 MLB Draft Class: Bryce Harper, Jameson Taillon, Manny Machado, Christian Colon, Drew Pomeranz, Barret Loux, Matt Harvey, Delino DeShields Jr., Kartsen Whitson, Michael Choice, Deck McGuire, Yasmani Grandal, Chris Sale, Dylan Covey, Jake Skole, Josh Sale, Kaleb Cowart, Mike Foltynewicz, Kolbrin Vitek, Alex Wimmers, Kellin Deglan, Christian Yelich, Gary Brown, Zack Cox, Kyle Parker, Jesse Biddle, Zach Lee, Cam Bedrosian, Chevy Clarke

Volume 11 Dayan Viciedo 3B, Jake Arrieta P, Brad Lincoln P, Jose Tabata OF, Daniel Nava OF

Volume 12 Jason Castro C, Johnathan Lucroy C, Cole Gillespie DH, Michael Pineda RHP, Andrew Cashner RP

Volume 13 Brett Lawrie 2B, Ben Revere OF, Travis Wood SP, Andy Oliver SP, Barry Enright SP

Volume 14 The Futures Game: Desmond Jennings, Jeremy Hellickson, Mike Moustakas, Eric Hosmer, Julio Teheran, Domonic Brown, Yonder Alonso, Brett Lawrie

Volume 15 Tony Sanchez C, Josh Bell 3B, Hector Rondon SP, Randall Delgado SP, David Bromberg SP

Volume 16 Dan Hudson SP, Brett Wallace 1B, Anthony Gose CF, Wilson Ramos C, Tim Collins SP

Volume 17 Mike Minor SP, Fernando Martinez OF, J.P. Arencibia C, Peter Bourjos OF, Ryan Kalish OF

Volume 18 Kila Ka'aihue 1B, Thomas Diamond SP, Mitch Moreland 1B, Chris Archer SP, Mat Gamel 3B

Volume 19 Yamaico Navarro IF, Matt Reynolds SP, Casey Coleman SP, Adam Warren SP, Justin Wilson SP

Volume 20 September Callups: Mike Moustakas, Carlos Carrasco, Desmond Jennings, Aroldis Chapman, Michael Pineda, Luca Duda, Brandon Allen, J.P. Arencibia, Wilson Ramos, Jared Goedert, Lonnie Chisenhall

2009 Archives:

Volume 1 Matt Wieters C, David Price SP, Cameron Maybin OF, Matt LaPorta 1B, Tommy Hanson P, Dexter Fowler OF, Travis Snider OF, Andrew McCutchen OF, Elvis Andrus SS, Carlos Carrasco SP

Volume 2 Taylor Teagarden C, Colby Rasmus OF, Jason Motte RP, Travis Ishikawa 1B, Brett Anderson P

Volume 3 Madison Bumgarner SP, Buster Posey C, Mike Moustakas 3B, Jarrod Parker SP, Chris Tillman SP

Volume 4 Rick Porcello SP, Brian Matusz SP, Tim Beckham SS, Brett Wallace 3B, Justin Smoak 1B

Volume 5 Mat Gamel 3B, Austin Jackson OF, Jason Heyward OF, Fernando Martinez OF, Jeremy Hellickson SP

Volume 6 Luke Hochevar SP, Bryan Augenstein SP, Chris Coghlan 2B, Gio Gonzalez SP, Angel Villalona 3B, Carlos Carrasco SP

Volume 7 Nolan Reimold OF, Gerardo Parra OF, Neftali Feliz SP, Kris Medlen SP, Daniel Bard RP

Volume 8 Jesus Guzman 1B, Aaron Poreda SP, Clayton Richard SP, Derek Holland SP, Andrew Lambo OF

Volume 9 Anthony Swarzak SP, Matt Wieters C, Daniel Schlereth RP, Sean Rodriguez 2B, Jake Fox OF

Volume 10 MLB DRAFT Edition Dustin Ackerly 1B, Donovan Tate OF, Grant Green SS, Matt Purke P, Kyle Gibson P, Tanner Scheppers P, Zack Wheeler P, Mike Leake P

Volume 11 MLB DRAFT Team Report

Volume 12 Vince Mazzaro SP, Michael Taylor OF, Brad Mills SP, Jason Castro C, Greg Halman OF