Spring training kicks off in full force this weekend with a full slate of games on Saturday and Sunday. In addition to the team breakdowns we’re providing we’ll start digging in on game data, largely focusing on young players and position battles. It’s hard to imagine but this weekend marks just the 5th weekend left before the regular season gets going. With that in mind, let’s dig in on the news around MLB along with some fantasy situations revolving around the Reds, Rockies, and Cubs.
Reminder for those who can’t get enough! Follow us on twitter, you can follow me @DrewDinkmeyer (http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer) where I tweet daily fantasy analysis and also answer questions. Also continue to download, rate, and review our podcast on itunes. We’ve churned out two so far this preseason and we’ll continue to keep them coming all season long!
Cubs early lineup decisions have ramifications?
Cubs manager Mike Quade tipped his hand a little bit on Thursday with regards to his potential leadoff hitter and while the statistical choice seems obvious, the reprecussions are meaningful. Quade indicated Kosuke Fukudome would be the likely leadoff candidate against RHP, which means the Cubs will continue to keep Tyler Colvin in a platoon/4th OF role.
Colvin “broke-out” to some extent last season after an intense offseason workout program that saw him add significant muscle, hitting .254/.316/.500 with 20 HR’s and 6 SB’s. Colvin had never posted a Slugging % above .490 in the minors, so the .500 level in his first full season seemed a bit stretched, and sure enough we saw some regression in the 2nd half (.531 Slug vs. .469 Slug). The Cubs are making the right move if trying to contend as they’re playing the better player early on. Colvin will continue to get his share of AB’s in a 4-man OF rotation, but he’ll only be an NL-Only option as a back-end OF for teams looking for some pop. His high K Rate (28% last season) and playing time concerns will keep the upside capped. In addition he’ll have to prove the power surge last season can be sustained in his sophomore campaign. We’re currently projecting some regression across the board with a .236-58-18-54-6 line that is similar to the line he posted last season but in more AB’s. The career .277/.320/.465 minor league hitter has the look of a 4th OF more than an impact player. While 24-year old OF’s who hit 20 HR’s in 350 AB’s look like appealing fantasy options on the surface, Colvin has some mitigating factors that should temper owners expectations.
In addition to settling some issues at the top of the lineup, Quade gave his first crack at the Cubs middle of the lineup and from a fantasy perspective, it left a lot to be desired. In my first set of spring notes we covered the difference in Geovany Soto’s value and how it was hindered by largely hitting at the bottom of the lineup. In the Cubs opening spring training game, Soto will be hitting 7th, while Marlon Byrd (career .423 Slugging %) will be hitting 3rd. It’s still early in spring and Quade has plenty of time to realize Soto is, if not his best, amongst his best options for the middle of the lineup; but the first look at the lineup isn’t an appealing one for those wanting to draft Soto as a Top 5 option. All the skills are there but with the 40-80 less PA’s, Soto’s counting totals won’t be able to keep pace with the other elite catching options. Note our current projections call for a 140 AB increase over last season. In order to get there hitting in the 7th hole, Soto would need to play 130 games. To reach that number out of the 5th hole, it would be approximately 120 games, and to reach that number out of the 3rd hole, it would be approximately 117 games. For a catcher that has avreaged 116 games a season over his first 3 years, the lineup positioning will go a long way in providing some insurance on Soto’s value. We’ll continue to monitor the situation as the Spring progresses.
What can we expect from Carlos Zambrano?
For one of the most volatile temperaments in all of baseball, Carlos Zambrano has actually been a fairly consistent performer throughout his career. He’s yet to post a full season ERA above 4.00, while averaging 196 IP per season for the last 8 years. While consistent on the surface, Zambrano’s peripherals have been all over the place. His BB Rate has ranged from acceptable (3.43 BB/9) to horrific (4.79 BB/9), while his K Rate has ranged from tremendous (8.83 K/9) to concerning (6.20 K/9). Similarly, a once stout GB pitcher (55% GB Rate) has over time become more reliant on Fly Balls (43% GB Rate last season). Throw in a 2010 season that included a dugout fight with teammates, a demotion to the bullpen, and an 8-0 stretch with a 1.60 ERA, yet 1.25 WHIP, to close the season and Zambrano looks like a wildcard. What can we expect? Is he the great Z of old who closed out the season in strong fashion or the guy who posted an ERA above 5.00 in each of the first 3 months of the 2010 season?
As usual, the truth lies somewhere in between. Zambrano’s been able to reinvent himself over the years and have success, but the overall trend has been in decline. In recent years the rediscovery of his good K Rate has helped mitigate the rising BB Rate and his propensity for giving up more Fly Balls has been masked by a surprisingly low HR/FB Rate (5.6%/5.2% last two seasons). Zambrano’s always been tough to hit, but the low HR/FB Rate seems a bit fluky over the last two seasons as we’ve seen his LD Rate rise and last year we saw his IFFB Rate drop back down below 10%. With any normal regression in his HR/FB Rate we’ll see his ERA drift closer to that 4.00 threshold, as evidenced by his 4.42 xFIP last season. In addition to some risk in his ERA, Zambrano’s WHIP hasn’t been below 1.29 in five years, with a composite average of 1.34 during those five seasons. Throw in the fact that Zambrano has seen his IP decrease each of the last four seasons and you’ve got a pitcher who still appears to have too much risk for his name value. While he’s going outside the Top 250 in early draft data, there are some guys with legitimate upside (that Zambrano doesn’t have anymore) going right around him. Jhoulys Chacin, Brian Matusz, and Johnny Cueto for example. I’d rather roll the dice on young players with more upside than experience another season with Zambrano that at most is going to leave you needing help in WHIP, with mildly above average production in the other three categories.
Jonny Gomes celebrating a repeat season?
Gomes has gotten a fair amount of attention this week for “reportedly” celebrating the injury to Cardinals SP Adam Wainwright, but the question NL-only owners want to know is if he can celebrate a repeat of a 2010 season that was quite valuable for fantasy owners. Gomes posted a.266-77-18-86-5 line that made him one of the better FA pickups for those in NL Only leagues. Not surprisingly the line came in the first season Gomes received more than 350 AB’s since he posted back-to-back 20 HR campaigns in Tampa. While the line was a good one for fantasy owners, it wasn’t very valuable for the Reds. His BB Rate and ISO both plummeted in the full-time role and as a result he posted just a .758 OPS. The below average offensive line coupled with Gomes horrific defense made him a replacement-level OF in LF.
With a contending team in 2011 and potential replacement options on the roster will the Reds accept that kind of production from Gomes?
This is the most appropriate question with Gomes and one owners in NL only formats need to keep in mind. With Fred Lewis, a capable LF option with a similarly capable bat (though different skill sets), it’s unlikely Gomes (.709 OPS vs. RH) continues to get a full compliment of AB’s. While he’s been productive in a limited role, fantasy owners can’t expect counting totals anything close to Gomes production last season. Early ADP data suggests owners are onto this as Fred Lewis is actually going ahead of Gomes in NL Only leagues despite Gomes being listed the starter. Make sure you don’t fall in love with last year’s numbers with Gomes, it’s unlikely he sees the same level of opportunity this season.
Edinson Volquez the ace?
It was three years ago that Edinson Volquez posted a breakout campaign with a 17-6, 3.21 ERA, 1.33 WHIP that came with a 9.5 K/9, 4.3 BB/9 and 46% GB Rate. The ERA was supressed by some good fortune in Volquez’s Strand Rate, but a 3.60 FIP is nothing to gloss over. After much of two seasons were lost due to Tommy John surgery, Volquez came back last year and posted strikingly similar peripherals: 9.6 K/9, 5.0 BB/9, and 53% GB Rate. Unfortunately the results were wildly different: 4.31 ERA, 1.50 WHIP.
We talk a lot about pitchers managing the three true outcomes: limiting HR’s, limiting BB’s, and striking batters out. In Volquez’s return he clearly showed two of the three as a 9.6 K/9 Rate and a 53% GB Rate are both elite. The problem with Volquez was pretty obvious: the command. Five walks per nine innings is going to get you in trouble as you’re almost guaranteed a significant number of base-runners. In addition the lack of command limited Volquez to just over 5 innings per start.
Now with Tommy John surgery, command is usually the last thing to come around and while Volquez very clearly struggled with command we did see some signs of command coming around as the season wore on. Volquez’s 2.60 BB/9 in his final four starts of the season were a potential sign of things to come. After two years of fantasy irrelevance Volquez isn’t being valued very highly in drafts. Currently going outside of the Top 250, Volquez is one of the few pitchers going that late with the potential to be a top of the rotation fantasy starter. He’s already got the strikeouts and the ground balls; he just needs to bring the walks down to a reasonable level. Keep an eye on Volquez this spring and if the command is coming back, pile in.
Jhoulys Chacin, where is the hype?
Every year around this time fantasy owners begin dreaming on young players. So when I see a 23 year old who posted a 3.28 ERA (3.54 FIP) and over a strikeout per inning in 130+ IP getting almost no attention in drafts (ADP of 246), I wonder what’s going on? The first thing with Chacin is that his performance was overshadowed by another young SP breakout in Colorado; and those last two words don’t help much either “in Colorado”. Although Ubaldo Jimenez did a lot to change the perception of the celing for Rockies SP, there are still worthwhile concerns. Regardless, let’s dig in on Chacin and see if owners are missing something.
Chacin obviously got some help with good fortune as his 3.28 ERA and 1.27 WHIP were both supressed by a .285 BABIP against despite an expected BABIP closer to .330. Chacin was generally successful at keeping the ball on the ground (46%) but struggled allowing line drives (21.9%). His 9.00 K/9 was stellar, and held consistent throughout the season, while his 4.00 BB/9 leaves much to be desired. A look at Chacin’s minor league track record shows some reason to doubt the K Rate will hold as his career 7.9 K/9, suggests the 9.00 K/9 will come down a bit. He did struggle with BB’s at the upper levels but his career 2.7 BB/9 in the minors suggests he has some potential for upward improvement in the command. With good GB rates and a strong minor league track record (2.40 ERA, 1.14 WHIP in just under 500 IP), I think Chacin can maintain fantasy value in his sophomore campaign. He looks like a back-end starter with upside to me and for someone being drafted just inside the Top 250, I think he’s a decent value. With a lot of favorable divisional pitching matchups on the schedule, the NL West is a division I’ll be looking for sleeper SP’s with upside, and Chacin is one of them.
Chris Iannetta finally without competition
Iannetta’s been a favorite of fantasy owners as he’s possessed great power with an immense minor league track record (career: .306/.412/.524), but for whatever reason he’s always faced competition in Colorado. This season when Miguel Olivo moved on, the Rockies didn’t bring in a veteran backup and have finally handed the keys over to Iannetta. Entering his age 28 season is Iannetta finally ready to reward fantasy owners?
I think so.
Quietly over the last 4 years Iannetta has been improving his contact rates and cutting down the K’s. He still strikes out quite a bit (25%) but it’s been cut down from 29%. He never had a problem with pitch selection as his career chase rate of 18% demonstrates elite plate patience, as does his career 13% BB Rate. The ISO dropped last year to .186 (career .201) but I think more of that had to do with consistent playing time than a long-term drop in skill. At 28 with no competition for the starting role, I think we see Iannetta relax and finally put together a nice fantasy season. He’ll start out hitting 8th in the Rockies lineup where his plate patience will result in plenty of walks. Ultimately I think he’ll get bumped up in the lineup and I think we see his first 20 HR campaign. It’s a bit of a gut call, but if you’re looking for a 2nd catcher in two catcher formats, few guys have the upside that Iannetta does. Currently going as the 21st Catcher off the board right now, I have Iannetta ranked at 13.
As a bit of draft straetgy. At the end of the draft I’d rather take upside over certainty. Give me a guy like Iannetta and I’ll let others take AJ Pierzynski or Yadier Molina or John Buck. Guys who we’ll see similar production on the wire during the season. That way if my breakout candidate becomes a bust I can always replace them with someone similar to those high-floor, low-ceiling guys. That’s why I have Iannetta ranked in my Top 15 and someone I’ll likely end up with in a lot of leagues.
Tim Lincecum (SP-SF) – Lincecum struggled in his Cactus League opener allowing 5 hits and 3 ER’s in 1 1/3 IP of work against the Diamondbacks. He struck out just 1, didn’t walk a batter and threw 12 of his 13 pitches for strikes. Lincecum struggled mightily last year in the spring and then went 4-0 with a 43/7 K:BB Ratio in 35+ March/April innings to start the regular season. No reason for concern here.
Madison Bumgarner (SP-SF) – Madison Bumgarner also got some work in during the Giants Cactus League opener allowing a solo HR to Xavier Nady in 2 fine innings of work, striking out 1 and throwing 11 of his 12 pitches for strikes. Bumgarner regained the velocity that escaped him in 2009 and put together a breakthrough year in San Francisco. He doesn’t strike enough guys out to make a big impact in the K category (6.97 K/9), but he does a good job at limiting the BB’s (2.11 BB/9) and benefits from pitching in a spacious home park. The 3.08 ERA posted last season won’t likely last, but a mid-3’s ERA coupled with a high 1.2’s WHIP and decent W potential seems reasonable. He’s a decent mid-rotation starter, currently being valued as a Top 40 fantasy starter, which unfortunately presents much more risk than reward in his current value.
Justin Upton (OF – ARZ) – Upton got off to a fast start in the batters box this spring collecting two hits in the spring opener in 3 AB’s. Unfortuntaely he wasn’t able to get off to much of a start on the basepaths where he was erased after both hits with a caught stealing and a picked off. Upton’s peripherals took a hit in his third full big league season as his K Rate jumped above 30% and his ISO fell back down below .200, all the way to .172. This despite, showing improvements in his LD Rate, FB Rate and his Contact Rates. It doesn’t all add up when looking at Upton and as a result we’re sort of writing off Upton’s injury riddled season. Look for a bounce-back as Upton makes a run at a 30-20 season. Unfortunately that bounce-back is priced in as we see Upton fairly valued with his current ADP of 40.
Brandon Webb (SP – TEX) – Webb reportedly will start throwing bullpen sessions next week in his comeback from shoulder surgery. I’m not sure you’ll find someone more pessimistic on Webb’s potential recovery than me. Not only are shoulder injuries notoriously difficult to come back from, but Webb has had to completely re-work his delivery in order to be able to throw without pain. Velocity has been a concern, but more of a concern for me is whether Webb will be able to regain the great sink on his fastball that made him an elite SP. With a new arm angle and delivery I’m not optmistic. I’m one who usually loves taking injury risks late but you won’t see it from me with Webb. Do not mistake the name for what he was. He’s throwing from a different angle now with less velocity. I don’t think he’ll ever be the same again.
Kendry Morales – (1B – LAA) – Morales is still working his way back from the leg fracture and it appears his recovery is going to eat into the first few weeks of spring training. The Angels expect Morales to be ready for the regular season opener so we won’t start down-grading the projections yet, but put me in the “officially concerned” group on Morales. Not so much about the leg injury, but simply the perception of Morales’ skill-set. Since he was on pace for a 30 HR/120 RBI campaign pre-injury, many have penciled him in for a 30 HR/100 RBI campaign again. But a look at Morales indicators before the injury show that his ISO collapsed back down to .197 (.263 in ’09), his BB Rate dropped back below 6% and his GB Rate rose to nearly 48%. His distribution of extra base hits became more heavily weighted towards HR’s, but I’m not sure that’s a realistic expectation going forward. While he certaily has the potential to post a .295-100-30-100 line, I think there’s risk in assuming those numbers. His .833 OPS last year is more indicative of a 25-27 HR guy than a 30+ HR guy. 2009 looks like a peak year performance to me and I’m tempering expectations a bit for Morales, who I rank as my #11 1B option this year.
Adrian Beltre – (3B – TEX) – Beltre was diagnosed with a calf strain that will sideline him for 10-14 days into spring training. Beltre’s is coming off a monstrous year in Boston, which just so happened to come in a contract year. Beltre has just two seasons in his career where his K Rate was below 15% and they both happened to be in contract years. In addition his career high in OPS outside of those 2 contract seasons in which Beltre posted OPS of 1.017 and .919, was .835. The move to Texas will help insulate Beltre from some of the horrid numbers he posted in Seattle, but those willing to pay a Top 60 pick for Beltre are nuts.
Brian Roberts – (2B – BAL) – Roberts missed his 3rd consecutive day of workouts after getting his neck checked out. This one is a concern for me given Roberts back issues last year that held him out for the first half of the season. The back issues and neck issues in subsequent years aren’t a coincidence as Roberts is likely breaking down at age 33. If healthy, I’m a BIG believer in Roberts as a value pick this year. He’s just one year removed from a 110 Run-30 SB campaign and showed a willingness to run upon his return last year while still posting great LD Rates. His age is a concern but more for his health than skill deterioration. We’ll continue to monitor Roberts’ neck issues this spring.
Jose Lopez – (2B – COL) - Eric Young Jr. continues to have to sit out workouts and games with complications in his recovery from the stress fracture in his right fibia last season. We entered spring training with a likely position battle between Young Jr, Herrera, and Jose Lopez but its starting to look like Jose Lopez is going to run-away with things and that’s going to create quite the sleeper at 2B. Don’t get scared off by Lopez’s weak year in Seattle last year, he’s averaged .270-67-15-77 the last 5 years hitting in a park that depresses RH power by 14% and is now moving to park that exaggerates RH power by over 17%. Get on board now. Cheap MI option with upside.
Buster Posey – (C – SF) – It’s like the 2010 season never ended for Buster Posey. He went 2-3 with a 2-run double in the Giants spring opener. Posey was a monster in his rookie season and while he’s likely to be very good in year two, I question if he’ll be able to replicate the power from last season. His 48% GB Rate isn’t conducive to elite power and his ISO by month last season was all over the map: .167, .082, .282, .146, .272. He’s shown the elite power at AAA in the hitter-friendly PCL but replicating that .200 ISO at the big leagues in his sophomore season seems aggressive to me. I think we’ll see Posey with a .300-80-21-90 campaign which will make him an easy Top 5 catcher. I’m just not sure how quickly he’s ready to challenge for the top spot.
