Figuring out the Outfield
Outfield is always one of the toughest positions to preview. There are just so many potential plays here that it is tough to cover even a good chunk of them. So, I’ll tell you how I decided to attack this position in general and follow it up with some examples of guys that fit this strategy.
Overall, as I said in previous positional previews, I decided to devote a lot of money to the infield. As a result, the majority of high salaried outfielders are not even my radar; I simply can’t afford them. However, if there is a position to go without the top tier guys this is it. There is just so much depth at the outfield position, and it comes with a TON of upside. So I focused my plays on loading up on middle priced upside guys and complementing them with a couple of cheap specialists.
The must have
Nelson Cruz (TEX) – 3460 – Cruz is an absolute stud. The only thing keeping his salary down are some low counting stats due to missed at bats (health). Will he all of a sudden be 550 at bat guy? Probably not, but as we discussed before he’s the exactly the type of guy you want in this contest – he’ll dominate when healthy and a solid taxi squad will prevent him from hurting you when he’s not. Cruz has absurd power as seen by his last two years’ ISO’s (.264/.258) and HR/FB%’s (21.2/15.2). Couple that with his stolen base capability (averaging 1 steal every 6.38 games), and he’s a must have.
Middle priced upside guys
Jason Heyward (ATL) – 3160 – A 14.6 BB% leading to a .71 EYE is ridiculous for a 20 YO rookie as Heyward was last season. That and his power (.179 ISO, 16.8 HR/FB%) mean huge things once he generates a little bit more loft in his swing. He’s your rare upside player that comes with minimal risk.
Mike Stanton (FLA) – 2850 – Absurd power makes Stanton difficult to avoid rostering. Consider as a 20 YO he posted a .248 ISO en route to 22 HR in his first 396 major league plate appearances. Strikes out a lot making him a BA risk, but with this power who really cares? Walks enough to keep pitchers honest and 22.9 HR/FB% is off the charts good for someone this young.
Jay Bruce (CIN) – 2550 – It was very good to see Bruce’s LD% return to a solid level last season (from 13% to 20.1%). He’ll be 24 by the second week of the season and already has an established history of consistent power, including a career .217 ISO and 17.1 HR/FB%. Second half of last season (.306/.376/.575) shows his upside.
Drew Stubbs (CIN) – 2850 – and Justin Upton (ARZ) – 2780 – Both of these guys strikeout enough to be considered risky but there HR/SB combinations are attractive. Upton in a down year went 17/18 (26/20 the year prior), and Stubbs as a rookie went 22/30. Too much value there to ignore and by taking a lot of outfielders, you can afford to ride the hot hand and sit whoever is going through a funk, which will happen with these guys’ strikeout totals.
Cheap speed
Coco Crisp (OAK) – 1940 – Crisp stole 32 bases in just 75 games last year and appears to have a permanent green light in Oakland. Okay in the power department too for a pure speed play.
Jose Tabata (PIT) – 1790 – Would like to see increase in BB% (6.3 last season) and minor league track record indicates there is room for some growth there, albeit small. He stole 19 bases in 101 games as a rookie, and if he’s able to get on base consistently could steal 40 as the Pirates appear to be committed to the running game heading into the season.
Cheap power
Ryan Raburn (DET) – 1560 – Raburn is definitely a risk (.32 career EYE), but not many guys at this price are risk free. He should be a good candidate for some cheap, consistent power as evidenced by his past two years’ FB%’s (47.7/43.9) and HR/FB%’s (17/12.2).
Avoid
BJ Upton (TB) – 3760 – Upton’s 20/40 ability in the HR/SB categories are tough to pass on, but he’s a batting average risk and a few players we already discussed offer close to those counting stats for around a million dollars less. This avoid marker isn’t so much a reflection of Upton’s skills as much as it is a reflection of the plethora of young power/speed potential there is available for under 3 million.
Michael Bourn (HOU) – 3920 – Those looking for steals shouldn’t pay for Bourn. Consider that Jacoby Ellsbury, Rajai Davis, Coco Crisp and Jose Tabata are all substantially cheaper than Bourn. As was the case with Upton, Bourn’s not an avoid because I see a decline in his numbers, but there are simply too many other worth steals specialists for cheaper out there to justify rostering Bourn.
Final verdict – I’ll carry a lot of outfielders this year. I went safe at most of the infield positions, so do not need to worry about many backups there, and with a lot of risk/reward younger players I like to ensure I’ll have a couple who will breakout and will be able to bench the ones that are struggling without it screwing up my lineup structure. Here are the ten that I will carry:
1.) Nelson Cruz
2.) Jay Bruce
3.) Justin Upton
4.) Colby Rasmus (STL) – 2850
5.) Drew Stubbs
6.) Jason Heyward
7.) Mike Stanton
8.) Jose Tabata
9.) Coco Crisp
10.) Ryan Raburn
