Jeff Francoeur- KC- Hot- Francoeur raised his average to .333 by going 2-for-4 and hitting his 3rd homer of the season. His average is being boosted by a .345 BABIP so that may not hold. The power numbers have a better chance of holding. His HR/FB ratio of 13.6% is the best he's had since his first full year with the Braves in 2006. On the flip side, his FB% of 36.1% is his lowest since his last full year with Atlanta in 2008. So even if those numbers tend to move towards his average they can offset and Francoeur's homer totals could be his best in a long time.
Erik Bedard- SEA- Cold- Bedard lost his 4th game in as many starts, giving up 3 runs on 5 hits and 5 walks in 5 IP. Bedard is suffering from bad luck (.322 BABIP and 67.4% LOB%) but with 7 homers and 11 walks allowed in 18.2 IP most of the blame for his record and 7.71 ERA falls squarely on his own shoulders. Until he gets a handle on his control and regains the ability to keep the ball in the park a change in luck isn't going to help much.
Adam Dunn- CHA- Hot- Since talking about Dunn last week on Fantistics, he went in the tank, going hitless for 3 games and striking out 8 times without walking. Last night broke that up as Dunn went 1-for-3 with a double, walk and only 1 K. It's not cause for a huge celebration, but it is an improvement. His percentage of swinging at pitches outside the strike zone has climbed from 14% to 23% in the span of 4 games, so it's obvious he needs to recapture his plate discipline to snap out of his funk. Some luck better than his .250 BABIP will help also. Don't count on Dunn to help you in the average category, but he should improve on his current .175 mark.
Jered Weaver- LAA- Caution- Yeah, I'm big Rangers fan, but it's not sour grapes, there are concerns about Weaver. Physically, his usage has risen dramatically. Last night's outing was the third this season of over 110 pitches. He has been making more high pitch starts each season and this pace will give him the most in his career, if he doesn't break down first. There are also peripherals that will likely be unsustainable. Sure, the K rate is excellent at 9.57, but he is being helped a lot by good luck. Weaver probably won't end up with a BABIP of .198 and a LOB% of 87.8%. In addition his GB% has dropped from last season's 36.0% to 29.9%. Even though his FB% is up to 51.7%, from the 48.2% he posted in 2010, Weaver's HR/FB ratio is only 4.4%, much lower than his 7.8% career norm. Weaver may be a solid source for strikeouts, but regression to the mean will hit him hard.
Carl Crawford- BOS- Cold- Only twice in his career has Crawford posted a batting average in the first month of the season that was higher than what he finished with. So a slow start shouldn't be a surprise. His current .149 average is extreme, but is impacted by his .179 BABIP in a big way. Crawford's BB% of 2.9% is far below his career average of 5.4% and the 6.9% he put up last year, but he doesn't seem to be hacking at everything coming up there. His 46.3% Swing% is below his career number of 52.9%. It looks like it's just a matter of waiting for regression to the mean.
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