John Danks (SP - CHA): It's been a frustrating season for Danks and his fantasy owners, but Sunday was a nice step in the right direction for his value and his production. Danks took a no-hitter into the 6th inning against the Royals on Sunday before allowing a little bit of damage. He finished the afternoon allowing just 2 ER's on 4 hits and 4 BB's while striking out 6. It may not feel like it for Danks owners, but he's actually shown some improvement this season. Danks has jumped his K Rate back over 7 and continued to make strides in his BB's (Sunday not withstanding), cutting the BB Rate to right around 2.5 BB/9, while also expanding his chase rate above 32%. His usual cutter/change-up combo hasn't been as effective this year based on pitch values and its lead to more LD's allowed than typical, which can largely explain some of the struggles this year. With the K Rate, BB Rate, and Chase Rates all showing improvement though, I think Danks can put together a strong finish to the season. By the end of the year I think we see Danks at his usual 3.80 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. He remains a solid mid-rotation starter.
Charlie Furbush (SP - SEA): Alright who saw Charlie Furbush limiting the Red Sox to just 1 ER and 6 base-runners over 7 innings? I certainly didn't. Furbush has struggled against big league competition all season posting a BB Rate above 4 and giving up nearly 1.5 HRs/9. The Red Sox certainly are a patient offense and one that can hit the ball out of the park, so it didn't figure to be a great matchup on Sunday, but Furbush didn't care much. He looked like the guy Seattle bet on finding the success he had at the minor league level where he posted a 10.2 K/9, 2.7 BB/9 combination in 9 starts at AAA this year. Based on Furbush's minor league track record he certainly has the potential to turn into a nice starting option and pitching in SEA should help his FB tendencies, but I don't want to get too carried away with one outing. He's still just a watch candidate in deep mixed leagues and more of an option for those in AL Only formats. In order for me to take a shot on Furbush as a spot starter I'll need to see continued improvements in his command at the big league level.
Rich Harden (SP - OAK): The Harden we saw on Sunday was the one I expected to see when he was initially activated from the disabled list. Harden struggled to command the zone and consistently fell behind hitters. It looked as if he didn't trust his fastball to get swings and misses and thus was trying to get hitters to expand their zone. Sure enough when I looked at the velocity charts of yesterday's start his avg FB velocity had dipped back below 91 mph. It's just one start, but the velocity on Sunday was more consistent with the velocity we saw from Harden in 2010, and frankly so were the results. He walked 5 batters and allowed 4 more hits, surrendering 4 ER's in just 4 innings of work. He did strike out 4 and his top FB velocity still hit 94, so I'm not sure this is the beginning of the end for Harden, but the start does have me questioning whether I'd use him at home next week against the Blue Jays. I had mentioned it as a good stream option on the podcast earlier in the day on Sunday, but now I'm not sure I'd run him out there. We've noted in the past that Harden's shoulder is a bit like a timed bomb waiting to go off and Sunday could have been the first sign of future troubles with his decreased velocity and command. I'd have him reserved for the next outing and hope that I saw a rebound in both velocity and command.
Doug Fister (SP - DET): While Charlie Furbush was man-handling the Red Sox, Doug Fister was getting raked around the yard by the Baltimore Orioles. Not exactly what the Tigers had in mind when they swapped the two (along with other pieces) back before the July 31st trade deadline. Fister has struggled since coming to Detroit allowing 10 ER's in 14 IP, while striking out just 5. He's had his usual good command, just 1 BB, but his LD Rate has been elevated and with more balls in play thanks to fewer strikeouts the problems have been exaggerated. While many will point to the switch in home parks as the reason for Fister's struggles since the trade, only one of his three starts have come at home and in that one he limited the Rangers to just 2 ER's over 7 innings. I tend to think this is just a cold spell. I am concerned about the drop in Fister's K Rate which has been consistently an issue since the end of May. With Fister trading down in the defense behind him, I'm not surprised to see more balls in play falling for hits. I still think he'll hold matchups value for those in deeper leagues, but owners will need to pick their spots. His next start, a home outing against Cleveland, should be one owners can feel comfortable utilizing him in.
Adam Lind (1B - TOR): Lind stayed in his funk on Sunday, picking up another 0-5 with another strikeout. He's now hitting below .200 since the end of June. The peripherals have spiraled out of control along with the slump. Lind hasn't walked since July 27th and his K Rate has expanded above 20%. As the plate discipline has eroded the extra base hits have become less and less frequent. Lind's homer on Saturday was his first since July 26th and he has just a 5% XBH Rate since the end of June. Lind looked to be bouncing back and posting a season in line with his 2009 breakout campaign, but things have fallen off quickly and now his peripherals are starting to trend in line with the difficult 2010. If you're a Lind owner now is the time to get him reserved until you see the plate patience come back and the BB's and power coming back before getting him in your lineups again.
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