Drew Pomeranz (SP - COL): Pomeranz opened some eyes in his first major league start as he was able to keep the ball on the ground (58% GB Rate) and demonstrated strong pitch efficiency, needing just 67 pitches to get through five frames. He'll get the ball again this Saturday with the Giants in town in what figures to be a favorable matchup. Pomeranz was still building his pitch count in his last outing (after having an appendectomy back in August) but I imagine the Rockies will let him work up towards 80-85 pitches this time out. Against another impatient offense that lacks depth that should be enough to get Pomeranz into the 6th inning, making him a viable spot start option. It's difficult to trust rookie SP's pitching in Colorado with your fantasy season on the line, but Pomeranz has shown some reason for confidence. His utter domination of minor league bats this year (10.6 K/9) suggests he can get some swings and misses at the big league level and his strong GB Rates are also a positive. His big issue has been command, but against a largely impatient Giants offense I could see him overcoming that issue. He's a very risky spot-start option, but those in deeper leagues who may be desperate, Pomeranz looks like a safer option than guys like Chris Volstad, Wade LeBlanc or Eric Surkamp.
Wilson Ramos (C - WAS): Ramos is quietly putting together a really strong finish to his first full season in the majors. Ramos entered Thursday hitting .353/.450/.500 in September and added to that line with a 3-5 effort that included a 2B, 3 Runs and an RBI. The strong finish has been helped along by an extremely favorable .462 BABIP here in September despite just a 7% LD Rate. The indicators come in a small sample size, but they're not the strongest suggestion that Ramos can keep this up. Looking at Ramos' future, it's clear he'll be able to contribute solid power numbers for a catcher as he's posted a .750 OPS as a 23 year old. His plate discipline has shown some improvement this year as his BB Rate is way up and his chase rate is down. If he can keep the BB Rate around 8-9%, something he wasn't able to do at the minor league level, his value as an offensive player increases substantially. He hasn't been able to post very strong LD Rates (just 13% last year and 12% this year) which will limit the batting average upside, but I could see Ramos turning into a Ramon Hernandez type bat. For those who don't remember owning Hernandez in his prime he was a solid bet for .270 with 20 HR's and 75 RBI's.
Homer Bailey (SP - CIN): Bailey did his best to give fantasy owners an adrenaline rush on Thursday night. His 6 IP 4 ER, 6 H, 3 BB, 9 K night doesn't look like anything out of the ordinary for Bailey, but all 4 of those runs came on 2-out 2-run HR's in the 1st inning. Bailey clearly settled in after that and got the strikeout working which helps make up for the shaky ratio production. Bailey's start was representative of his career. Just when you think he's figured things out, he throws in a couple duds to leave you questioning and just when you give up on him, he puts a long string of strong starts togegther to make you reconsider. Once again this year, he's closing on a strong note. He's cut his BB Rate below 1.75 BB/9 in the last 2 months of the season and upped his K Rate back over 7.5 K/9. The results have yielded an xFIP below 3.50 for the last 2 months of the season with an ERA just below 4. Bailey did the same thing last year and I questioned whether it was the beginning of the breakout that would carry over into this season. Unfortunately Bailey battled some injuries and now it's unclear if Bailey's 1st half struggles were due to injury issues or his 2nd half surges are due to lesser competition. He'll get HOU and the NYM in his last two outings of the year, which should be favorable matchups that Bailey can continue this strong stretch of improved peripherals.
Pablo Sandoval (3B - SF): We've covered one red-hot Giant quite a bit over the last week, Carlos Beltran, so now its time to cover the other one: Pablo Sandoval. Sandoval was phenomenal on Thursday night, reaching base in all 5 plate appearances and going 4-4 and hitting for the cycle. Sandoval's steadily improved his BB Rate and his K Rate as the season's worn on and in August and September the numbers have really started to pile up. He entered Thursday's game with a .928 OPS in September and has now posted an OPS above .845 in 4 of the 5 months he's played this year. The lack of a strong supporting cast has hurt Sandoval's counting numbers, but his peripherals are trending right back in the direction of his 2009 breakout season. Sandoval's lack of plate discipline is always going to bring some elevated risk to the table for Sandoval on both a yearly basis and a month-to-month basis, but his skill-set from 2011 looks remarkably close to 2009 and I think we're at the point where we can carry this forward as the baseline expectation for the Panda.
Jhoulys Chacin (SP - COL): Chacin's 2nd half fade continued on Thursday as he was knocked around for 4 ER's on 9 hits and 4 BB's over 5 2/3 IP. Chacin only struck out 1, which continues the disturbing trend of a quickly eroding K Rate as the season has worn on. Chacin's still rolling ground balls at a strong rate, but with more balls in play (fewer K's) and a continued high BB rate, the ER's have started to compound. He's posted quality starts in just 4 of his last 11 outings and really shouldn't be trusted at this point. He'll finish out the season with two favorable matchups (SD, @SF), but without the high K Rate the upside doesn't merit the downside we've seen from Chacin. I think its time to move on.
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