Lets face it, it's a dilemma that many
Fantasy GMs face on draft day: How valuable is speed in relation to power. Let's start by
examining how Rotisserie values a Stolen Base verses
a Home Run:
If you play in a typical rotisserie
league (non fantasy point) then for most of you, the Stolen Base category
has the same weight as the Home Run Category. If you play
in a 5x5, then each of these categories is worth 1/10 of
your total points. Last season, the average number of
SBs among the top 168 MLB hitters (12 teams 14 starters)
was 11.5, the average number of HRs among that
group was 17.1. In the industry's FSTA
Expert League last year, the top 3 teams averaged 183
SBs, while the top 3 teams in the HR category averaged
272. Simple Math tell us that a Stolen base is more rare than a HR
(by 33%: 11.5 vs 17.1),
therefore each occurrence is more valuable on the
surface....however the net benefit is much smaller
than the figure quoted and is often overvalued (please
read on).
For illustration purposes, below is a listing of the top 20 SB
leaders from 2011. At the bottom is both a mean for the
top 20 in each category, as well the mean among the top
168 fantasy hitters (12 team league, 14 starters).
The last 3 rows above shows: 1. The
category goal: average top 3 finish in the
aforementioned league, 2. The net delta contribution
to each 5x5 category, above the average starting fantasy
player, and 3. On average the top 20 SB guys from
2011 contributed 14.7% more than the average player
towards their GM's fantasy goal. Basically these top 20
SB guys were pretty close to average in most categories
other than stolen base....their main contribution was as
expected (their speed).
Now here's
where I change directions and explain why the
advantage for the SB category can be misleading:
A Home run contributes directly and
immediately to more categories than it's own,
including the Runs, RBIs, and the BA categories. Unlike
the SB category, each homerun immediately registers a
tally in 3 other categories. As was evidenced last
season among the top 20 HR hitters, their impact was
just as evident despite having the numerical
disadvantage we touched on above.
Here's a look at the top 20 HR leaders
from 2011:
The net effect of 14% is very close to
the net effect of the top SB leaders (14.7), hence
what looked like a big advantage for speed, was not so
much evident in the big picture last season.
To take it one step further, if we
exclude the power hitters from the top 20 SB group
(those in bold) we start to see the weakness in chasing
steals in the early to mid rounds on draft day. Without
these multi talented players, the top 20 SB group
significantly suffers in their contribution to the other
categories...namely HR (6.5) and RBI (44). These
category deficits can significantly weigh down their
inherent advantage.
In conclusion, stolen bases are
slightly more valuable than HRs, but choose wisely as
the pitfalls can quickly outweigh the scarcity factor.
Here are a few thoughts/observations for draft day:
1. 5 Category fantasy players are
insanely valuable. Last season players like
Matt Kemp, Jacoby Ellsbury, Ryan
Braun, and Ian Kinsler were absolute beasts in
their fantasy contribution. Paying for steals here (sans
Braun) is well worth the cost as their contribution in
the stolen base department can account for a 5th of your
SB goal, while also exceeding their peers in the
other categories.
2. Take a balanced approach, don't
over pay for the top SB guys that can't contribute in
other categories. Chasing a
Nyjer Morgan in the 12th round is on par with
chasing a power hitter (eg.
Alfonso Soriano) who is going to hurt you in the
Batting Average and Runs categories.
3. Do take on 20+ SB guys at the
scarce positions. If you don't get a stud shortstop
or second baseman then take the discount offered in the
later rounds for the likes of
Jamal Weeks, Alcides Escobar, Ian Desmond. The
power at these positions will be gone early, so if
you've got an open slot, there is a very good ROI on
these types of middle infielders in the later rounds.
4. If you don't fill your draft SB
quota/goal, don't panic! Steals are much easier to
acquire on the waiver wire than power numbers. Consider
the likes of Jamal Weeks, Dee
Gordon, Emilo Bonifacio, and Ben Revere
were not drafted in most leagues last season.
As always consider the tools inside your
Fantistics Draft Advisor software. The software
calculates the value of each category and applies your
specific scoring rules to produce the optimal Dollar
Values/Draft rank...and our Goals section in the
setup area and Draft Summary allows you monitor
your progress during the draft.
That's it for today folks, we'll be back
soon with our daily preseason player notes. Have a great
weekend!
Anthony A. Perri
Statistician and Publisher
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