Chicago Cubs Lineup Notes:
New Cubs manager Dale Sveum spoke on Thursday about possible lineup combinations, noting that David DeJesus would most likely be his leadoff hitter heading into the 2011 season. The rebuilding Cubs are devoid of ideal hitters in many spots in the lineup, but particularly the leadoff spot. DeJesus, with a career .356 OBP, was the logical choice and the early favorite. From a fantasy perspective the move is a slight bump to DeJesus' value, but a mild one at that. The Cubs offense projects as a below average run scoring unit and DeJesus' lack of ideal power, speed, or batting average contributions will leave him as an occasional stop-gap option for mixed leaguers.
Along with the discussions about the top of the lineup, Dale Sveum also touched on the middle of the order; suggesting Bryan LaHair was likely his clean-up hitter. Even though the Cubs lineup projects as a below average one, fantasy owners should take note of anyone hitting in the 3 or 4 slot in a major league lineup as the potential for counting total contributions in R and RBI is heightened in those spots. LaHair showed some interesting skills in his brief major league tour last year posting a .220 ISO along with a strong 13% BB Rate while putting up a .288/.377/.501 line in 69 PA's. This comes after a few minor league seasons in which LaHair posted OPS above .900 at the AAA level, proving he could swing it. At 29, LaHair is no longer a prospect and much of the future attention in Chicago has been turned to elite 1B prospect Anthony Rizzo, but LaHair will have every opportunity to hold onto the job all season long while the Cubs get Rizzo more seasoning at AAA. Rizzo's presence is holding down LaHair's draft value as is LaHair's relative obscurity, but the opportunity coupled with the skill showed at AAA and in his brief big league experience last year makes LaHair an intriguing deep sleeper for me.
While Dale Sveum was only willing to commit to his 1st and 4th slots in the batting order, I was left wondering what it meant for Geovany Soto. Soto continued his unusual trend of "every-other-year" production last year as he slumped to a .228/.310/.411 line that saw his BB Rate drop nearly in half and his K Rate climb to over 26%. At 28, it seemed unusual for Soto's peripherals to collapse in such an ugly fashion but some of the deeper indicators like Soto's contact rate, which fell from 76% to 71% followed suit. While it's hard to ignore Soto's ugly 2011 campaign, the weird on-again, off-again performance has me interested in seeing where Soto lands in the lineup this spring. If he's buried towards the bottom of the order like he was in most recent years, Soto will have a hard time picking up enough AB's and RBI opportunities to realize a rebound in fantasy potential even if the performance reverts. However, if the opportunity is there and he's slated in the middle of the order, a recovery in his peripheral indicators could quickly result in a rebound season. I think Soto's being over-drafted as the 12th catcher off the board currently, but a boost up into the middle of the lineup could get me to change my mind.
Colorado Rockies - a rare opportunity for value:
One of my favorite things about the closer position in fantasy is how often the experience in the role gets overrated. When you stack up the peripherals of some of the elite closing options heading into 2012, you can find some real bargains that are being discounted based on a lack of experience in the role. For instance:
Craig Kimbrel - 14.84 K/9, 3.74 BB/9, 44.8% GB Rate, 1.94 xFIP
Mariano Rivera - 8.80 K/9, 1.17 BB/9, 46.5% GB Rate, 2.64 xFIP
Closer X - 10.54 K/9, 1.16 BB/9, 31% GB Rate, 2.66 xFIP
Closer X is none other than Rafael Betancourt, who is currently being drafted as the TWENTY-THIRD closer off the board, barely inside the top 200 overall. Those numbers aren't a small-sample fluke either. Betancourt posted a 2.12 xFIP the year before in Colorado. He's an elite closing option that is being masked as a back-end one because of his perceived lack of experience in the role. Pass on the supposed "elite" closers in the mid rounds and snag a guy like Betancourt late and you'll be well ahead of the curve.
Miami Marlins: A Big Z Bounceback in Miami?
Amidst all the offseason moves made by the Florida Marlins, the acquisition of Carlos Zambrano has probably received the least attention. Zambrano was essentially traded straight up for Chris Volstad, with salaries a non-factor as each team will pay their original commitment. In terms of name value the trade was an obvious win for the Marlins, but statistically the two pitchers were extremely similar (4.59 FIP for Zambrano, 4.32 FIP for Volstad). The statistical decline for Zambrano has been slow and steady for Zambrano. At first his BB Rate rose as he continued to generate swinging strikes with his off-speed pitches. As his velocity has declined though he's been forced to rely on contact a bit more and the numbers have deteriorated accordingly. There have been some encouraging reports during the winter leagues and early on in spring that Zambrano has regained some of the old velocity he had and was even touching 94-95. With average fastball velocities dropping from 92.9 mph to 90.2 mph over the last seven years, a spike into the 94-95 mph could result in an entirely different pitcher. The reports haven't done anything to change my evaluation of Zambrano at the moment, but I am intrigued to see the radar guns in his first few spring training starts. With better velocity Zambrano may regain fantasy relevance. It's something worth monitoring.
Notes from around the league:
Ryan Braun (OF - MIL): The big news in the world of baseball, and in this case fantasy baseball, as well was the overturned suspension of Ryan Braun. Braun, who had been suspended 50 games for violating MLB's drug policy, saw the suspension over-turned on Thursday thanks to an arbiter's ruling. Many articles will come out in the next few days assessing the strength of the cases for each side, but from a fantasy perspective the result of the decision is all that matters. Braun was being drafted right around the 25th-30th player overall with the suspension looming, but will immediately jump back into the top ten. After an abnormal dip in Braun's ISO in 2010, he rebounded strongly posting his best individual season in an MVP campaign. Braun's indicators support the story of an elite star hitting his prime. Braun's improved his K Rate every year of his professional career (5 years running), while also raising his BB Rate in five straight years. Braun's value remains stable as a consistently elite producer. The real beneficiary of this news, from a fantasy perspective, is Aramis Ramirez who will see a significantly larger number of base-runners on in front of him now with Braun back.
Roy Oswalt (SP - ???): Roy Oswalt called a big press conference on Thursday to let everyone know that officially... nothing has changed. Oswalt indicated he's not ready to sign any of the offers he received and that he'll continue to work out and continue to evaluate his options. The news, if you'd like to call it that, will push Oswalt down draft boards as it's officially unlikely he starts the season on an active roster. Barring a significant injury to the rotation of a contending team, Oswalt will look to catch on with a contender mid-season in the old Roger Clemens' role.
Andres Torres (OF - NYM): The focal point of the Mets offseason revolved around the departure of Jose Reyes and an impending decision regarding the future of David Wright. While the back pages were focused on the Mets marquee players, Sandy Alderson went about his usual business trying to make additions to depth and talent with small arbitrage opportunities. Perhaps the signature offseason move was the acquisition of Ramon Ramirez and Andres Torres for Angel Pagan. Torres leaves plenty to be desired from an offensive perspective, as his consistent 20+% K Rate leaves him susceptible to low batting averages that his just average power often can't compensate for. At 34, his peripherals have shown erosion in recent years, specifically in his chase rate (increasing to 31% of pitches outside the zone) and his ISO; however Torres' move to New York does provide some positives for deep leaguers. Torres leaves a crowded OF situation in SF where they had capable defensive OF's to wrestle playing time away into a situation in New York where Scott Hairston will serve as his primary backup. Torres also would appear to be the most likely candidate to leadoff, which should help Torres build in the counting totals (Runs, SB's) that he can offer value. The Mets ranked in the top 10 of stolen base attempts last year and figure to try to manufacture runs again this year. Torres has averaged 22.5 SB per season over the last two years and with more secured playing time this year would figure to make a run at 25+ again this season.
Stephen Drew (SS - ARZ): Stephen Drew was able to take grounders on Thursday without any pain or discomfort as he continues to recover from the fractured ankle that ended his 2011 season early. Even before the ankle injury, Drew's 2011 season was marred with disappointment. His K Rate jumped to over 20% thanks to a loss of four percentage points on his contact rate. He maintained good command of the zone but didn't make enough contact and when he did connect the power he displayed in his age 27 breakout season wasn't there. The DBacks lineup has continued to grow around Drew and if he can regain the contact rates of the past and couple with a bounce-back in his power rates Drew could provide a nice mid-round bargain. At 29, he's still in the prime of his career and coming off an injury plagued season with some dips in his peripherals, his stock hasn't been lower. He's exactly the type of low-risk upside I like to target in drafts.
Allen Craig (OF - STL): Allen Craig was able to play catch for the first time since having knee surgery after the Cardinals world series victory. Craig was expected to have a nice role with Albert Pujols' departure but the Cardinals signing of Carlos Beltran has left Craig back in a reserve role once again. Craig demonstrated great power (.240 ISO) along with solid LD skills (19.1%) in his first full season. While his BB:K Rate, what we often refer to as EYE, left a lot to be desired; Craig showed solid discipline with a chase rate of just 29% (league average 30.6%). The strong major league performance matched a tremendous track record at the minor league level where Craig slugged over .500 in three different full seasons. Once healthy Craig will resume his utility type role, getting worked into the lineup three times a week while resting Beltran, Berkman, and Holliday; but the upside comes in the injury risk with those aging veterans. If one were to suffer an injury Craig would be an immediate add in all formats. Deep leaguers should consider taking the flier in draft season and those in traditional leagues should keep him on short watch list. The bat is very real and the indicators back it up.
Brian Wilson (RP - SF): The Giants have been providing seemingly daily updates with respect to Brian Wilson's progress this spring. Wilson dealt with elbow stiffness last year, resulting in a trip to the DL late in the season and an eventual shutdown. The fact that the injury is still a concern coming into spring training is enough of a red flag for me to hesitate with respect to Wilson's draft status this year. The reports have suggested things have improved each day, but the warning signs (both physical and statistical) are there. Wilson's command evaporated prior to the elbow concerns and his velocity was down over 1 mph. I've talked before about precursor signs to injury in the statistical profile and these are the two red flags I worry most about with pitchers. We'll continue to monitor Wilson's progress through spring, but I'm preaching caution here.
Russell Martin (C - NYY): Martin was a gem for fantasy owners last season, bucking a declining ISO trend, and knocking out 18 HR's. As our software points out a pretty fortunate 15.9% HR/FB Rate that included 6 "just enough" HR's inflated that power total for Martin. While that was the source for much of his value in 2011, I think the chances of Martin repeating as a solid back-end #1 fantasy catcher are solid - even with an expected drop in the HR output. Martin's HR totals will almost assuredly come down in a significant manner, but his .237 average that was supported by a .252 BABIP despite a 19% LD Rate deserved far better. As a rule of thumb expected BABIP's are typically 12% higher than LD Rates, suggesting Martin's batting average should've been closer to .280+. If Martin's BABIP even regresses to career levels (.295), we're talking about a .275+ average to go with the strong Run and RBI production. Mix in a chance for double digit steals and HR's and you've quietly got a back-end #1 catcher. While I'm expecting a decline in his HR rate this year, I think a rebound in Martin's batting average will help recoup some of that value and I'm drafting him as such.
Franklin Gutierrez (OF - SEA): I mentioned taking chances on statistical bounce-backs from players in their prime years, with respect to Stephen Drew, and I think an even deeper example of this for 2011 might be Franklin Gutierrez. Gutierrez entered 2011 having averaged 15 HR's and 20 SB's over the previous 2 years with adequate production in Runs, RBI's, and AVG over that span as well. 2011 was a nightmare though for Gutierrez as he and the Mariners had trouble diagnosing stomach issues that sapped Gutierrez of his power and robbed him of considerable weight. Gutierrez's ISO collapsed (below .100) and his approach at the plate deteriorated as well; Gutierrez's swing rate and chase rate both increased. Typically those indicators are big warning signs for a slowing bat, but at age 29 I'm of the belief the slowed bat may have been the result of strength loss rather than age related decline. Gutierrez has come into camp having put on much of the weight he lost last year and has the potential to work his way back into the middle of a depleted Mariners lineup. A player that will go undrafted in many leagues, he merits watching this spring for rotisserie players where his 15-20 potential carries some extra value.
Johan Santana (SP - NYM): There has been an awful lot of optimism coming from Mets camp regarding Johan Santana in his recovery from shoulder surgery. Before fantasy owners start to take notice of the constant flow of optimism, I want to stress some reason to take these statements with a grain of salt. The Mets as an organization have been known for a few things of late within the mainstream media and baseball circles: 1) ownership that has made questionable financial decisions both on and off the field and 2) a medical staff that simply has not been able to properly diagnose or treat injuries in recent years. Given all the negative publicity surrounding the team it's not surprising to see a team try to shine a light on some positive news by speaking optimistically about Santana's recovery period. Is it possible all the reports are 100% accurate and Santana is very ahead of schedule? Sure. But the track record with the Mets medical staff, shoulder surgeries in general (Mark Prior, Chris Young, etc), and the situations surrounding the Mets organization makes me very skeptical. Even if Santana is able to return to pre-shoulder surgery form we're talking about more of a mid-rotation fantasy starter than an ace. Be careful getting caught up in the hype this spring until we see Johan on the mound in a live game.
Tim Hudson (SP - ATL): It's flown a bit under the radar, but Tim Hudson underwent offseason back surgery that will delay his start to the season. The Braves are hoping to see Hudson return in late April or early May which will cut the innings expectation down into the high 100's and limit some of the effects of his great ratio contributions. At 36 Hudson has shown little deterioration in his peripheral skills and as long as he remains healthy should be a fine work-horse #2 fantasy starter that leaves owners a bit shy in K's.
Justin Morneau (1B - MIN): Morneau noted on Thursday that he hasn't had any concussion symptoms since January, but also indicated that he plans on taking things "slowly" at the beginning of spring training. The uncertainty surrounding Morneau's health long-term and what impacts the concussions, and the medications he's taking, have had on his performance remain; making him one of the toughest players in all of baseball to project going forward. When looking at the statistical profile of Morneau last year, it's a completely different player than what we're used to seeing from the former MVP. Morneau's BB rate was cut in half and his ISO (career .217), dipped to just .106. His approach at the plate was a mess as his chase rate rose 4 percentage points to nearly 35% and he made contact on pitches outside the strike zone at a rate over 70%. The poor approach is certainly part of the reason for Morneau's drop in power and BB Rate, but it's not the only reason. The concussion medications Morneau took limited his workouts and many noted he looked noticeably smaller during the course of the season last year. While it's nice to hear Morneau hasn't had any symptoms since January, the cautious approach to working out early in spring is all too reminiscent of last year for me. Morneau's draft stock has fallen accordingly to the point that the risk in taking him has diminished significantly, but the 31 year old is now past peak years and dealing with an injury that is far from predictable. Until I see Morneau playing full back-to-back games in spring and taking the approach at the plate we've seen in the past, I'm treating him as a broken commodity.
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