Preseason Fantistics Analysis - Monday, March 5, 2012
New York Yankees
Declining Production from Big Stars
The Yankees saw one of the "Core Four" retire this off-season with Jorge Posada calling it quits There are already rumors that this may be the last hurrah for Mariano Rivera. While there are few questions about Rivera's ability to be one of the best fantasy closers in the game, the biggest "age" question on the team is probably Alex Rodriguez. We have witnessed a plethora of injuries over the last few seasons, yielding 138 games or less for the last three years. Last year was no exception, with a hip injury keeping A-Rod to just 428 PA and 99 games played. For the last four years, we have seen a steady decline in his production. Using OPS as a decent measure and starting in 2008, his OPS rates have been.965, .933, .847, and .823. He'll turn 37 this year and his health will be the biggest factor determining his ability to bounceback. Let's not forget that last spring, A-Rod looked very healthy by posting a .388 average with 6 HR and 15 RBI in 18 games. Take his spring numbers with a "grain of salt" and consider him a top-10 third baseman with ADP in the 5-6th round area in mixed leagues. If he can stay healthy, we have him banging out 25 HR and flirting with the 100 RBI mark. Next week's aging star analysis will focus on Derek Jeter.
The Rotation
The first four spots in the Yankee rotation are cemented with CC Sabathia, Michael Pineda, Ivan Nova, and Hiroki Kuroda all locked-in. The 5th spot will likely go to Phil Hughes, but not if Freddy Garcia has something to say about it. Garcia got knocked around in his first start on Sunday, but he was throwing strikes and we can discount his first few spring training starts by looking at his overall career. While he posted a very respectable 3.61 ERA in 2011, his strand rate of .76 was above average and his actual ERA was probably more in the 4.00+ range. His power pitching days are long over as his K/9 is sub-6.0 now and his WHIP averages out around 1.35+. If he is able to earn the spot (or the Yankees go to a 6-man rotation despite their claims), expect a downward trend from last year's results. For Hughes, I believe he is the favorite to win the spot. Some back injuries led to a shortened campaign in 2011, but we're just a year away from his 18 win performance in 2009. Yankee support and a little luck certainly added to the win total as he posted a 4.19 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and a HR/FB of 10.1%. Don't go crazy on Hughes on draft day. Because of the pinstripes, he should be able to earn mid-teen win totals, but the K-rate will be 7.0 at best and injury potential should diminish his value.
Detroit Tigers
Spots Up-for-Grabs in a Powerful Lineup
After Victor Martinez went down and the Tigers pounced on Prince Fielder, only two spots remain as "undecided" in a stellar lineup - DH and 3B. Of course, fantasy first rounder Miguel Cabrera will likely be the everyday third baseman having come into camp shedding some lbs. Manager Jim Leyland will probably occasionally bounce him around from 3B, DH, and 1B (when Prince gets a "day off" to DH), but that still leaves one spot open at any given time. The names in question are Don Kelly, Delmon Young, and Brandon Inge.
Kelly will likely hold down the full-time role in LF and Austin Jackson and Brennan Boesch have CF and RF locked-down. Young is probably the best bet to get a majority of the DH ABs, but it will be a fluid situation. Young's full season numbers don't tell the full story as he had a much better split with the Tigers than he did with the Twins (.266/.305/.357 with the Twins vs. .274/.298/.458 with Tigers). He isn't thrilled with the role as DH, but his defense is below average so this is probably the best fit for him. We have him returning to a 20+ HR and 80+ RBI, so look to grab him as a late round 20 HR potential guy in mixed leagues.
Cincinnati Reds
The Rotation
Its hard to believe that Homer Bailey is just 25, but he has already had a full career's worth of injuries and drama that make his tenure seem like a lifetime. He posted a 9-7 record last year and has steadily increased his workload up to 132 IP in 2011. That IP total should continue to increase and we have him forecasted over 150 for 2012. Another year of maturity and an additional 15 pounds of muscle could help him improve his .69% strand rate from last year. He's worth a late-round flier and should hold down a permanent spot in the rotation as long as he can stay healthy. All upside here as Bailey has posted a sub-7.0 K/9 for his career and the best WHIP he has posted is 1.28. Stay conservative with Bailey, but I like him as a last round pick just to see what happens.
While the other four pitchers on the Reds staff (Johnny Cueto, Mat Latos, Bronson Arroyo, and Mike Leake) are all relatively safe, Cuban lefty Aroldis Chapman will work all spring trying to break into the rotation. One bump in the road for any of the 5 names above (or an injury) will have Chapman seeing the ball every five days. He'll be working on his changeup more in the spring as he won't be able to throw 100mph fastballs as much as his one-inning of work in 2011. Keep him on your draft radar over the next month as he may be a valuable starter in all mixed leagues if he earns a spot in the rotation.
1. Corey Hart (OF - Brewers) - No, this isn't an old post from 2011. Once again, Corey Hart is injured in spring training and the start of his season is at risk. He'll undergo arthroscopic surgery on his right knee and he'll be out at least 4 weeks. Starting the season on the DL is a real risk, so his draft-day value should drop as gun-shy owners stay away. But Hart's injury shouldn't affect his value too much if he only misses a week or two of the season. His speed potential is long gone (he hasn't stolen more than a dozen bases since 2008) and his 2nd half surge put him back on the fantasy map with a .909 OPS after All-Star with a 11% XBH% and 16 HR. We'll see how the next few weeks go, but we'll likely have more info about the injury and its potential to affect the beginning of the season the week prior to Opening Day. If he does start the season on the DL, look for Carlos Gomez and Norichika Aoki to get more ABs.
2. Ike Davis (1B - Mets) - You know baseball is back when you have to go to WebMD to do fantasy research. Davis has been diagnosed with "Valley Fever" which can be something as simple as a fever or a cold or it can completely zap your energy like it did with Conor Jackson a few years ago and he ultimately played just 30 games of the year. Davis doesn't seem to be suffering quite as bad as Jackson did, but definitely keep an eye on him this spring and be careful on draft day. If he's healthy, this could be the breakout season that should have happened last year had it not been for the ankle injury. We have him forecasted for 25 HR, .280 avg, and 85 RBI. The shorter fences at Citi Field should help and I have him as a mid-teen ADP in your average mixed league drafts.
3. Stephen Strasburg (SP - Nationals) - It would be easy to look at Strasburg's boxscore from yesterday and assume the worst. Afterall, how can you look at 2.2 IP, 3 hits, and 2 ER against the Astros and feel good? Well, while Strasburg is still battling back from Tommy John surgery over 18 months ago, we were able to see 24 IP in September that gave us a K/I of 1.0, a .179 BAA, a 0.71 WHIP, a 1.05 GO/AO and an average velocity of 96mph on his fastball. He feels stronger now than he did in September after an offseason of resting and rehab The real question is if he can stay healthy and strong for his first full season of action. He'll undoubtedly go very high on draft day as he could still be the next big fantasy ace, but I would be shocked to see him post more than 160-170 total IP by the end of the year.
4. Ubaldo Jimenez (SP - Indians) - A rough first outing in spring training has added fuel to the fire for those fantasy owners using 2011 as the only measure for his 2012 fantasy value. He allowed 5 rusn (but just one earned) in an inning against Cincinnati on Sunday. Ubaldo ended 2011 with a 4.84 ERA and 1.41 WHIP, quite the decline from the previous year's 2.84 ERA and 1.15. He lost a few ticks on fastball, yet he still managed to post a K/9 of 8.6, in line with his career average of 8.2. His xERA of about 4.0 definitely shows that he was better than his numbers may indicate (to go along with a bad 65% strand rate % from 76% and a .311 BHIP). His HR/FB almost doubled as well, going from 5.1% to 9.3%. I expect Ubaldo to bounce back and post sub-4.00 ERA, maintain a high K rate, and post a dozen+ wins.
5. Carlos Marmol (RP - Cubs) - Marmol looked sharp on Sunday and is one of my favorite closers to have his career year in 2012. He took a bit of a step back in 2011 from 2010 with a decline in K/9 from 16.0 to 12.0 (still awesome) and an inflated FB/HR of 7.5%. His LOB% declined from a 3-year average of 78% to 75% which led to a big jump in ERA to 4.01 from 2.55 the previous year. At 29, I think he is positioned well to recover from his 10 blown saves and be better than just a top-10 closer. I think he'll be a good value on draft day as gun-shy owners stay away from the 4.00 ERA / 10 BS closer of '11.
6. Mike Napoli (C - Rangers) - Napoli is still recovering from his post season ankle sprain, but he was able to catch a little yesterday and is on pace to be healthy for the beginning of the season. Catcher, as usual, is one of the weakest positions in fantasy baseball and Napoli is considered in the top-tier for his power and production. With 30 HR and 75 RBI last year, Napoli's K rates went down significantly from a 3-year average of 25.5% to 19.7% last year. His BB% jumped as well (so therefore his overall EYE skyrocketed) from 9.6% to 13.4%. He should flirt with 30 HR and 80+ RBI without a problem.
7. Norichika Aoki (OF - Brewers) - With Hart probably landing on the disabled list with knee surgery, Norichika Aoki should bget some fill-in ABs until Hart can return. The 30-year old was signed for his versatility in the outfield, but he's not worth a pick on draft day as he will likely just be a fill-in player unless Carlos Gomez, Ryan Braun, or Nyjer Morgan also go down with an injury. Gomez is still the guy who, I think, will get the majority of the ABs so I would lean toward him over the next few weeks in NL-only leagues and stay away frmo Aoki for now.
8. Carl Crawford (OF - Red Sox) - Crawford is going to be examined today after a "little setback" from surgery on his injured wrist. We should know more today how the start of the regular season will be affected with Crawford's injury, but it definitely has him dropping in mixed league drafts. Gun-shy owners who are already scared of his EYE drop from 0.44 to 0.22 in 2011 and .255 average could make Crawford a steal if he starts slipping into the 5th round and beyond in average mixed leagues. If the wrist checks out ok and he isn't a threat to miss too much time, I'm giving him an up arrow as a bounceback is expected.
9. Brandon Allen (1B - A's) - Every year, one player puts up huge spring training numbers and the fantasy chatter erupts. Allen may have a head start with his 2-for-5, HR, 7 RBI performance on Sunday. Allen has huge power, but hasn't been able to translate it to the big league level. In the minors, he hit 142 HR for an AB/HR of about 20.0 and he has about 11 HR at 29.5 AB/HR. His problem is that he can't touch lefties with an average of just .134 in his career. If he can figure that out, he'll battle for a spot at 1B/DH for the A's, but for now he's not worth the fantasy roster spot.
10. Rodrigo Lopez (SP - Cubs) - Lopez is fighting for a spot in the Cubs rotation and he made a decent case on Sunday in limited action against the Oakland A's. He hurled two perfect innings and recorded 2 K's. The 36-year old Lopez will have a tough shot at landing the 5th role, as the backend of the rotation will likely be filled with Paul Maholm, Randy Wells and Chris Volstad. Even if he does make it, consider him a last resort NL-only guy anyway. He's a soft tosser with K/9 potential around 5.0, high WHIP in the 1.45 range, and a serious risk to put up some crooked ERA numbers at Wrigley Field.
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