AL Quick Pitch: Brandon League is a perfect 4-for-4 in save opportunities to begin 2012. If he can normalize his road/away splits from last year (SLG% of .254 at Safeco, .407 everywhere else), he'll be considered near the top of the 2nd-tier of closers. Edwin Encarnacion is on fire at the plate, belting his 3rd HR on Sunday and bringing his season OPS to .957. Could this finally be the year he puts it all together? He is certainly on pace to do so and deserves consideration with 1B/3B multiple position eligibility. Rick Porcello looked good in his 2nd outing and earned his first W of the season. The low K/9 of sub-5.0 over 500 career innings has led to some serious blow-ups including 9 starts of 5+ ER allowed in 2011. But for now, he seems to be recording a few more K's and is locked-in. His next start will be a good test against the Rangers this week. After a couple of rough games to start the season, Alfredo Aceves is now proving why Bobby Valentine had the confidence to make him the interim closer. He converted his 2nd save on Sunday and has now pitched in three straight scoreless/hitless innings. Kendrys Morales was out of the lineup on Sunday as he struggles to break-out of a 1-for-23 slump. It shouldn't come as a surprise that Morales has a few cobwebs in the swing having not seen big league action since May of 2010. Give him some time and be patient as there is still lots of upside potential. Andy Pettitte continues his journey back to the big leagues and he has looked pretty good in minor league starts. He's still on pace for an early May return, but don't expect him to put up huge numbers for your team. I think 8-10 Wins and a K/9 of around 6.0 is a decent projection as his workload will almost certainly be limited to save him for October. Fellow Yankee rotation teammate Ivan Nova allowed 4 ER last night, but had plenty of run support and recorded 8 K's to earn the W. Repeating a 16-win season will not be easy and his CT% could lead to some bad luck over the course of the year, but last night was a good example of the Yankee-bats preserving the win. Delmon Young is swinging a hot bat of .310/.382/.448 but only has 2 XBH to start the season. I expect that to change in short order and 20+ HR should be in his future. Matt Moore struggled with his control again and now has 9 BB in 13.0 IP, but his career 12.0+ K/9 in the minors should still yield plenty of K's moving forward. He's just 22 so some growing pains have to be expected, but I still think he'll be the AL ROY when all is said and done. Kyle Drabek has surprisingly been decent, but his track record and terrible 2011 makes me nervous so I'm leaving him on the wires for now. Brian Matusz continues his struggles and has now allowed 9 ER in 9.2 IP. He had a decent spring that gave some false expectations, but its look more like the same 2011 Matusz. Nothing good happening here so steer clear. Justin Smoak hit his 2nd HR of the season, but his average is still well below the Mendoza line. I think we can live with a high K, low average Justin Smoak if he puts up Mark Reynolds type numbers, but he still has 40-50 points to climb in the average department to get to that level. Mark Trumbo is swinging a hot bat in his 16 AB. 3B is proving to be a bit of a struggle on the defensive side of the ball, but if he keeps hitting for average and power, his bat will find its way into the lineup.
1. Brandon League (RP - Mariners) - League is now a perfect 4-for-4 in save opportunities and still has a 0.00 ERA through 6.0 IP of work. League probably doesn't get enough credit for his 37 saves, 2.79 ERA, and 1.08 WHIP from 2011. His GB/FB for the last two years has been about 1.50, but he definitely benefits from a favorable pitcher-friendly Safeco. Last year, he had a noticeable home/away split difference with a SLG% of .254 at home versus .407 on the road. While he's a 2nd tier closer, he is certainly near the top as he has been one of the more consistent closers to begin 2012.
2. Delmon Young (OF - Tigers) - Delmon Young continued his hot hitting on Sunday going 2-for-4 with a double to bring his line to .310/.382/.448 through the first 8 games of the season. Young has just 2 XBH and has 7 K's with just 1 BB. I expect the SLG and XBH% to increase over the next few weeks as he begins to show signs of his 2010 season. He had 21 HR and 112 RBI that season and while it will be difficult to eclipse the RBI totals, I wouldn't be surprised to see him surpass 21 HR and his 27.1 AB/HR rate. When he was traded to the Tigers last year, he posted a AB/HR of 21.0 versus a 76.3 while with the Twins. Getting his XBH% in the double-digits should be a good target for Young and fantasy owners to get good value out of him throughout the year.
3. Matt Moore (SP - Rays) - Command was an issue for Moore against the Red Sox as he allowed 6 runs, 8 hits, 2 HR and 4 BB in 6.1 IP. He earned the loss as his ERA inflated to 5.54 and WHIP to 1.62. Control was an issue for Moore in his first outing, although he wasn't burned by it as much as he pitched a QS. He walked 5 in his first outing of the year against the Tigers but didn't factor into the decision. That's now 9 BB and 9 K's in just 13.0 IP. Its early enough that Moore may just be getting his feel and at just 22 there could be some growing pains, but for fantasy purposes, the K's will certainly be there (K/9 of 12.2 in 2011 and 12.5 over the last 5 years in the minors) and he should be one of the favorites to be a ROY contender at the end of the year.
4. Kyle Drabek (SP - Blue Jays) - The name has been floating around fantasy circles for quite some time, but Kyle Drabek looks to be trying to make a name for himself in the early-going of 2012. He's 2-0 and has allowed 3 ER in 12.2 IP with 10 K's, 4 BB, and a GO/AO of 1.67. Its a good sign, but if 2011 is any indication, he'll have to do more to prove to fantasy owners that he's worthy of a claim in mixed leagues. His low K/9 of 5.8 combined with his astronomical BB/9 of 6.3 in 2011 was a recipe for disaster that led to a 1.81 WHIP and a 6.06 ERA in 78.2 IP. His GB/FB was just 0.79 last year, which will have to improve along with his BB's if he is going to continue the decent start beyond the first 2 games.
5. Brian Matusz (SP - Orioles) - Matusz had a decent spring with 22 K's in 24.2 IP with a 1.30 WHIP and 3.65 ERA. That quickly fell apart once the season began. Another brutal start makes him 0-2 with 9 ER in 9.2 IP with 5 K's and 8 BB against the Yankees and the Blue Jays. Add those two starts to his horrendous 2011 and you have an ultra high-risk fantasy pitcher. I'm not sure what happened between 2010 and today, but it is definitely going in the wrong direction. There is nothing positive going on right now for fantasy owners in any league format to be taking the risk on this one.
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