AL Daily Notes - July 21st, 2012

Michael Brantley (OF - CLE): I got into a mini-twitter battle with Joe Hettler the other night about Michael Brantley so I figured I'd use this space to explain my thoughts on Brantley, a player I've always liked. The two skills that I noted on twitter Brantley has always had were plate discipline and LD Rates. For his career Brantley's 0.56 EYE doesn't suggest a player with elite plate discipline but his minor league was an astonishing 1.34 (in nearly 2500 PA's) and his zone command indicators at the major league level (career 22.6% chase rate, 91.4% contact rate) suggested there was room for growth. Throw in a LD Rate that has been above 20% (career 21.3%) in every major league season and you have the skills to be a legitimate .300 hitter (career .303 minor league hitter). Brantley's never had much pop (.377 minor league slugging %) and as a result his middling defense in CF have left baseball people wondering if he's a poor defensive CF or a weak-hitting corner OF, and thus some have given him the 4th OF tag (which Joe alluded to on twitter). I've always thought if the defense could be passable in CF his bat, buoyed by strong LD skills and a good EYE would be enough for Brantley to function as a solid leadoff/top-of-the-order hitter (as evidenced by his .388 OBP in the minors). This year Brantley's K Rate has naturally come down (his low chase rates and swinging strike rates, made it a very likely regression) and at 25 he's shown modest growth in his pop; posting a career best .136 ISO. His .789 ISO isn't much different than his minor league career (.765) but some fluky major league performances in his first few seasons drove expectations so low that people are acting shocked by Brantley's "breakout". When I look at his 2012 statistically I see normal regression in his K's and slight, but what should be expected, growth in his power. The Indians choosing to bat Brantley in the middle of the order has helped the pace in his counting numbers, but his 7-10 HR, 20 SB pace with a .290+ average shouldn't surprise anyone given his minor league track record. He's a fine 4th OF option for fantasy owners in traditional leagues going forward as long as he continues to hit near the middle of the order. I see nothing unusual in his statistical profile.

Adam Lind (DH - TOR): Back on May 7th I wrote a lengthy blurb indicating how Adam Lind's start to the season was particularly unusual. Lind was struggling mightily to generate results, but his skills were actually showing some pretty solid improvement, especially in his approach. Since being recalled from AAA Lind has held onto some of the gains in his approach and the results have started to follow as Lind has hit .323/.382/.613 in his return. On the season Lind has maintained his solid ISO (.188) while keeping his K Rate right around 19% while doubling his BB Rate to 10%. A substantial improvement in Lind's contact rates (84.4%, career 80.7%) suggests there may be additional room for improvement in his K Rate as well. The picture is a pretty one for those who have reclaimed Lind after the demotion as his skill-set is starting to resemble his 2009 breakout season, certainly far more than his 2010-2011 version. I'm a believer in Lind's skills and think he can be owned in all formats.

Jered Weaver (SP - LAA): It's taken sabermatricians a bit longer to understand the ability for high FB Rate pitchers to out-perform their peripherals and as a result guys like Jered Weaver and Matt Cain, for a period of time, were very difficult to understand how they were getting elite results with what seemed like merely good indicators. As batted ball data has become better and we've been able to understand the effects of infield fly ball rates, it's become a bit easier to understand their success. Even so I remain utterly befuddled by Jered Weaver's 2012 season. Weaver has seen his swinging strike rate drop from a career 9.4% to just 7.4% this year and as a result his K% has dropped to his lowest levels since his rookie season. In addition his long-standing ability to generate high infield fly-ball rates (career 13.3%) has come down to just 10.1%. Despite these rather severe drop-offs in skills, Weaver's performance has somehow gotten better! With 7 strong innings against the Rangers last night Weaver's ERA dipped to a career best 2.20. With career worsts in a number of key indicators, I remain skeptical that Weaver can maintain a sub-3.00 ERA the rest of the way, but this is a guy who has repeatedly proven me wrong throughout his career. Even if regression sets in Weaver will still be very good (just likely not elite). If I owned him I'd consider moving for another elite arm that is missing more bats, but I wouldn't feel particularly pressured to do so given Weaver's history of out-performing his skills.

Travis Snider (OF - TOR): When it comes to prospects that I seem to chase every time they get called up, Travis Snider's name might be near the top of the list. Snider has assaulted the minor leagues to the tune of .308/.383/.528, but has struggled with contact (73.8%) at the major league level and as a result the batting average and OBP have slumped (.248/.307/.423) when he's been given opportunities. Still, the power has been real in Snider's major league stints (9.5% XBH Rate) and given the high LD skills in the minors and subsequent strong batting averages, it always feels like Snider is one small adjustment away from breaking out. On Friday night the Jays activated Snider and the front office indicated Snider would play full-time alongside Anthony Gose creating a competition for long-term playing time while Jose Bautista is out. With another opportunity, I've found myself examining the back-end of my roster and trying to make room for Snider in leagues of all sizes. His power potential is immense and he plays in a good environment for hitters in a deep Toronto lineup. While his major league experience to date has been plagued with inconsistency and contact issues I'll continue to take chances on his high-end talent. Snider's promotion also means an immediate drop in value for Rajai Davis who will return to a bench role.

Will Middlebrooks (3B - BOS): Back at the end of June I noted that owners in redraft formats should strongly consider cashing in on Will Middlebrooks hot start. While Middlebrooks was making some improvements in his plate discipline in June, his poor minor league BB Rates suggested Middlebrooks impatient approach may get figured out. This appears to be the case as Middlebrooks BB Rate has dipped back down to 3% in July and he's hit just .194./219/.323 during the month. Middlebrooks has good raw power and will still benefit from hitting in Fenway and in the Red Sox lineup, but as the league has adjusted to him Middlebrooks numbers have come back down to earth. I think a .260-25-75 pace is a more reasonable expectation for the young 3B and I think we're seeing his performance regress towards those levels. He'll eventually get things going again, but owners may have missed the ideal opportunity to sell high.

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