Mark Trumbo (3B/OF - LAA): After spending much of the season kicking myself (and simultaneously praising Anthony Perri) for discounting Mark Trumbo's 2012 value, I'm beginning to wonder who was right on this one? Obviously Trumbo's been a tremendous value for fantasy owners this season and Anthony, as usual, was a genius for projecting him 3-4 rounds ahead of everyone else, but was the 1st half an anomaly? Is the 2nd half the new standard for Trumbo? What can we expect going forward? The 1st and 2nd half splits are so drastic (.965 OPS, 20.7% K% - 1st half, .611 OPS, 33.4% K% - 2nd half) that the easy answer is somewhere in between. For the season Trumbo's 2012 season looks a lot like his 2011 year. His plate discipline has been a tad better (37% chase rate, 41% last season), but his contact rates have deteriorated (77% last yr, 70% this year) and as a result his K Rate has risen from 21% to 26%. His ISO has remained steady (.231 vs. .223 last year) but a 5 percentage point increase in his HR/FB Rate (22.4% this year) leaves you wondering if the ISO is due for a bit of a fall-off as well. Trumbo has seen his BABIP neutralize a bit thanks to a vastly reduced IFFB Rate (another reason perhaps the HR/FB Rate has improved) and suggests Trumbo can hold the average over a full season close to the current .260-.270 threshold. After a 2nd year in which Trumbo's peripherals have deteriorated slightly I'm inclined to believe in my initial concerns over his long-term viability. The massive raw power is there, but players who chase 40% of pitches outside the strike zone have a small margin for error. As a result I'll probably be light on Trumbo again next year. For owners dealing with Trumbo now, it's hard to find a reason to have confidence an deploy him. His K Rate has risen to absurd levels the last two months (36% K Rate in August, 48% K Rate in September) and with that little contact it's impossible to sustain value. I don't see any reason he should be in fantasy owners' lineups at this point and given the peripherals are deteriorating I'd be comfortable cutting bait with just a few weeks left. The smaller the sample sizes we're dealing with (only 2-3 weeks left) the more reasoning there is for rash decision-making. I don't own Trumbo anywhere, but if I did, I'd be ok cutting him for a hotter bat (in traditional mixed leagues).
Johnny Giavotella (2B - KC): Something continues to get lost in translation between AAA and the big leagues for Johnny Giavotella and it's a bit frustrating for fantasy analysts. Giavotella has posted a sweet .89 EYE at AAA the last two seasons, but his EYE has sunk to just .24 upon promotion to the big leagues. The swing data doesn't suggest Giavotella is being wildly impatient at the major league level as he's chasing 30.5% of pitches outside the strike zone (about league average) and swinging through 7.4% of pitches (better than league average). However, an 18.8% K Rate and just 5.6% BB Rate suggest he's been over-matched. When Giavotella has made contact it's been pretty solid as his 25.7% LD Rate would indicate, but so foar that solid contact hasn't translated into a whole lot of extra base hits (.066 ISO). Giavotella's career .135 ISO at the minor league level along with his very solid (.94) EYE suggest at some point the 24-year-old will start to figure things out, but early indications this season aren't encouraging. As Schuyler mentioned a few weeks back, Giavotella's consistently solid production at the high minors makes me believe the performance will eventually breakthrough at some point and makes him a cheap draft day target next year for those in deep leagues. For this year, there's a small bit of hope that Giavotella can finish strong against expanded rosters filled with AAA competition that he's performed well against in the past. His .370/.452/.556 line in his first 27 AB's in September is a good sign. He's a viable MI option in 12 team mixed leagues and deeper.
Jason Kipnis (2B - CLE): Kipnis' 2nd half struggles continued on Wednesday night as he struck out twice in four hitless AB's and dropped his 2012 line to .255/.328/.376. Kipnis entered Wednesday night with a miserable .222/.303/.308 line that includes a paltry 5.6% XBH Rate and an alarming 53% success rate on SB attempts. Examining Kipnis' month-by-month splits, it's a bit of a mystery why his performance has fallen off so drastically. He posted LD Rates of 25%, 15%, and 26% in July, August, and September and his .55 EYE is almost identical to his .58 1st half EYE. The 18% K Rate in the 2nd half is a bit elevated over the 15.5% 1st half rate, but the big driver in the struggles is simply a lack of power. Kipnis' ISO in the 2nd half has been consistently below .100 after posting a .142 ISO in the 1st half. Given power was never an issue for Kipnis in his minor league career (.486 slugging %), I'm inclined to believe Kipnis' 2nd half struggles this year are an anomaly. Whether it's fatigue after a strong 1st half or the league making some adjustments, I think Kipnis 1st half is a better indication of his performance heading into next season. The one caveat is the SB where I think the pace drops way back down into the high teens as teams pay more attention to Kipnis on the base-paths next year.
Max Scherzer (SP - DET): Scherzer is a perfect example of why we stress focusing on the indicators as opposed to the performance when evaluating players. Scherzer struggled through a 1st half in which he posted a 4.72 ERA and 1.39 WHIP, but the indicators (specifically the K Rate) were pretty stellar. We preached patience on Scherzer all season long noting that at some point the awful luck on balls in play would turn around. In the 2nd half those rates have normalized (.320 BABIP allowed) and Scherzer's performance has followed. He entered Wednesday night with a 2.70 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and strong 11.29 K/9 and built on those numbers with 6 strong innings against the White Sox. Scherzer allowed just 4 hits and 1 ER while striking out 7 and not walking a batter. It was the 7th straight quality start for Scherzer and lowered his ERA to 3.77, his WHIP to 1.26 and earned his 16th win of the season. He'll finish the season as a Top 25 SP and one of the biggest contributors to those who made 2nd half pushes in their fantasy leagues. While his ERA may never meet his gaudy peripherals (as Mike Leone covered in his last blurb), Scherzer's still pretty damn valuable as a #2 fantasy SP.
AJ Griffin (SP - OAK): I've been pretty vocal on twitter and on our SiriusXM show this season in my support for AJ Griffin and he continues to deliver as he turned in another strong start against the Angels on Wednesday night. Griffin hasn't allowed more than 3 ER's in a start all season and has allowed more than 2 ER's in just 2 of his 11 starts. He doesn't blow hitters away (89.8 mph FB), but his 34% chase rate and 8.8% swinging strike rate are both at or slightly better than league average. He does a great job of keeping hitters off-balanced and inducing weaker contact as evidenced by his 14% infield-fly-ball rate. While I do have plenty of love for Griffin his performance this season has been significantly aided by good fortune. Griffin's ERA is a run and a half lower than his xFIP and while the Coliseum will help limit his high fly-ball tendencies the .234 BABIP he entered play with on Wednesday night simply doesn't match up with a guy allowing a 21% LD Rate. It's hard to recommend sitting a guy that has been this consistently good with a 2-start week in the playoffs for many fantasy owners, but the matchups against some power-laden offenses (@DET, @NYY) next week do make a bit uncomfortable for a pitcher who has out-performed his peripherals so strongly. I'll ultimately still roll Griffin and hope his magic can last one more important week, but fantasy owners should understand he's much closer to a 3.50 ERA, 1.25 WHIP type starter than his current sub-2.00 ERA.
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