Mitchell Boggs- STL- FYI- In leagues that count holds, Boggs has been golden, picking up 34 of them after last night. Boggs has had good fortune this year, with his 2,21 ERA well below his FIP of 3.43. However, that's still not a bad number and almost identical to the 3.44 FIP he posted in 2011. His 7.12 K/9 is precisely what Boggs had last season so he has been exceedingly consistent for two years in a row. If Jason Motte struggles next season, Boggs could be an option to take over the closer role.
Clayton Richard- SD- Cold- Richard was hit by regression to the mean in his last 3 starts as he allowed 13 ER in 16.2 IP. He gave up 3 homers yesterday, which makes 21 allowed on the road and only 10 at home. Richard continues to be helped by playing his home games at Petco Park. He finished with a FIP of 3.96 at home, well below the 5.14 he posted on the road. After these final 3 starts his underlying value is more prominently displayed and it still says to avoid him on the road in 2013.
Chris Johnson- ARI- FYI- Johnson was back in the lineup yesterday for the first time since suffering a deep bruise on his hand September 23rd. He had been very hot before the injury, hitting .364 in the month of September. This was the product of luck, as his BABIP was .486 in that time frame. It's not an indication that Johnson has made some super breakthrough that will carry into 2013.
Bronson Arroyo- CIN- Stats- Arroyo did give up a long ball in his last regular season start, but it was only his 3rd in his last 6 starts. He allowed 26 homers this season, his lowest number since 2006 and far fewer than the 46 gopher balls he served up last year. Arroyo's HR/9 was much lower at home so perhaps he has learned to corral the Great American Ballpark. He pitched 30 more innings on the road than at home, so with a more even spread his homer numbers may have been even better. Arroyo, with his durability, looks to be a solid fantasy choice for 2013.
Jeurys Familia- NYM- Cold- Control, or lack thereof, will determine what role, if any, Familia will have with the Mets. He is still thought of to have potential as a dominant starter, but if he keeps doing things like yesterday, when he walked 6 batters in 4 IP, that won't happen. Only 33 of Familia's 75 pitches yesterday were strikes. That kind of performance won't get him even a bullpen role. Familia's upside is big, but there is a lot of risk involved. There is a lot of Daniel Cabrera to him right now.
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