One strategy tip I think we've all learned so far this season: take everyone Drew mentions in the Fix the day AFTER he recommends them. Last night Domonic Brown was one of many guys in the past week to hit a homer the day after being mentioned in the Fix by Drew. In all seriousness, that's just a bit of bad luck and means we are zoning in on the right guys - more and more will start hitting the day of.
Please note that unless there are a lot of day games, I only recommend playing the evening slate of games in order to have more lineup/weather information available. As a result, I am ignoring the two day games today and concentrating solely on the evening games. There's enough uncertainty in daily fantasy before we put ourselves in a position where rosters lock before we have adequate lineup/weather information.
Before we get into today's recommendations, it is important to remind everyone to understand your scoring format and the pricing of the individual players on the site you're playing. These vary from site to site and all daily sites price their players differently, which could make someone a must start on one site but not another. It is also important to double check starting lineups as news often breaks after this column is written. In the space below I will break down the best plays by position and make notes as to which type of formats to utilize players. If you are new to the daily fantasy baseball scene, there are daily fantasy websites which offer one day contests. These contests are mostly salary cap games where you can take any players you want as long as you stay under the cap and meet the positional requirements and all are points-based (not roto). Please feel free to e-mail me at mleone@fantistics.com if you have any further questions regarding daily fantasy baseball.
UPDATE 2: With the Cleveland-New York game looking doubtful to be played due to rain and Boston throwing Alfredo Aceves instead of Felix Doubront, some of my plays below are not nearly as good. Here are some ideas to deal with this news.
C-I am pretty locked into Saltalamacchia now with the same cheap plays listed before as my backup options.
1B-Not a lot changes here but obviously remove Hafner and Pearce as potential value plays.
2B-A cheap replacement here is Dustin Ackley. He has really struggled so far this year, keeping his price down. However, I still expect a strong bounce back year for Ackley and this is a good position to save on with Cano/Kipnis possibly not playing. I'll probably take a chance on either Ackley against a RHP making his third ever start or Mark Ellis, who isn't that great against RHP, but I like his chances of being involved in some run scoring plays due to his lineup spot and the left handed bats around him.
SS-You can stick with hardy due to his depressed salary and him still likely being in a high scoring game. He still hits for okay power against RHP (.182 ISO), but be aware that his overall effectiveness is way less (.304 wOBA) . Stephen Drew is likely cheap on most sites and an acceptable cheap play.
3B-I still like Middlebrooks, Machado and Seager here. I will likely end up with Seager the most due to his price.
OF-Be careful using Reimold now against a RHP unless the price is very attractive. In the cheap play section below, bump up Denard Span over Nick Swisher and Brett Gardner as their game is in jeopardy of not being played. Also, bump Nick Markakis up.
UPDATE: Boston changed their rotation to start Aceves today and Doubront tomorrow. Aceves has pretty even splits for his career but really struggled against LHB last season (.349 wOBA allowed to them). Obviously all of the right handed bats I suggest to play on Baltimore are no longer as strong of plays, and their LHB like Nick Markakis become stronger plays. Sorry for the confusion as the switch was made after the FIX was written, I will try to tweet out more plays tonight (https://twitter.com/leonem4444) around 6 o'clock or so to make up for some of the Baltimore value plays listed below that are no longer as valuable as a result of the SP switch.
Catchers
Top Play
Matt Wieters (BAL) - Wieters has an absurd .440 wOBA the past 2 seasons as a RHB, and he will get the chance to hit in the right side a few times today facing off against LHP Felix Doubront. While Doubront has a nice K rate, he struggles with the rest of his skills and specifically has allowed a .348 wOBA to RHB the past three seasons with 1.33 HR/9 and a large 22.4 LD rate. The hitting environment in Boston is also favorable, so lock Wieters in at C wherever his price is reasonable.
Solid Value Plays
Jarrod Saltalamacchia (BOS) - Salty should be a lot cheaper than Wieters on most sites making him a more reasonable value play if you are strapped for cash. Like Wieters, Boston's switch hitting catcher has a preferred side, and we will see him hit from it today. Salty's wOBA from the left side of the plate (.333) is 68 points higher than from the right side as he generates a lot more power (.238 ISO), and he is home in Fenway Park today going up against Chris Tillman who has allowed a .333 wOBA to LHB.
I am really going to try to play one of those 2 catchers today but other cheap options include Francisco Cervelli and Wilson Ramos who have okay matchups, and Tyler Flowers makes for a good boom or bust GPP play today, facing the HR prone Dan Haren.
First Base
Top Plays
Adrian Gonzalez (LAD) - While Gonzalez is seeing the ball well early on (.435 wOBA, 1.33 EYE), he hasn't hit for much power yet so hopefully his salary is depressed on which ever site you play at. He's my top 1B play of the day. Gonzalez has a .388 wOBA against RHP the past two seasons and faces off against the very hittable Jason Marquis. LHB have a pretty ridiculous batting line of .302/.385/.520 off of Marquis since 2010 with a whopping 1.74 HR/9. It's not a favorable scoring environment (Petco Park), but hopefully that just serves to scare off other people from taking him as it's not like Gonzo hasn't had success in this park before.
Mike Napoli (BOS) - Don't let the fact that this is a R/R matchup scare you away in the least bit. Napoli has a superb .948 OPS and .285 ISO against RHP. His .406 wOBA against them is outstanding, and he faces Chris Tillman who isn't particularly hard on same handed batters (.329 wOBA, 1.51 HR/9, 1.45 K/BB ratio).
Solid Value Plays
Travis Hafner (NYY) - Hafner hasn't gotten a ton of playing time the past two years and hasn't produced much overall, and his salary still reflects that on some sites. You should take advantage of that because the DH is hitting cleanup for the Yankees and can still handle RHP (.371 wOBA since 2011). I like opposing pitcher Zach McAllister as a sleeper in deep leagues, but he will have his hands full with this makeshift Yankees offense that is getting it done. He's got a good K rate but pretty risky as evidenced by his low 39 GB rate allowed to LHB.
Paul Konerko (CWS) - Konerko is still priced too low on a lot of sites and has a solid upside matchup today going against the HR prone Dan Haren. Konerko has no problem hitting same handed pitching as he has a .378 wOBA against RHP since 2010 with a .207 ISO. Meanwhile opposing pitcher Dan Haren actually has some reverse splits as RHB actually have a higher BA, OBP and SLG than LHB do against him.
Salary Cap Relief
Steve Pearce (BAL) - Last time the Orioles faced a left handed starter, Pearce was in the starting lineup hitting fifth. Eligible at 1B and/or OF depending on the site, I will look to use Pearce where he is priced at or near the minimum salary. That is the case on some but not all sites. On a short night he is one of the better salary cap relief plays if he is starting and hitting in the middle of the lineup in what is supposed to be a high scoring game. For his career, Pearce is actually a decent hitter against LHP with a .261/.341/.456 line.
Chris Davis is also a solid play today despite the L/L matchup, but on most sites he is too expensive due to his massively hot start. Depending on Adam LaRoche's price he could be just as good of a value play as Konerko or Hafner. Mark Reynolds is your boom or bust GPP play going up against Phil Hughes who allows 1.64 HR/9 to RHB.
Second Base
Top Play
Robinson Cano (NYY) - I know this isn't exactly going out on a limb, and you are probably priced out of the red hot Cano on most sites, but his .419 wOBA against RHP since 2011 and the risk I talked about with McAllister in Hafner's blurb make him far and away the best 2B play of the day.
Value Play
Jason Kipnis (CLE) - Kipnis is underpriced in general, and this is a good matchup for him. Hughes is actually better against LHB than he is RHB, but he still allows them to hit 1.19 HR/9 with only a league average K rate. Meanwhile, Kipnis (hitting in the 3-hole most likely) has done the majority of his offensive damage throughout his young career against RHP (.788 OPS compared to .607 OPS against LHP).
I really do not like too many 2B options so I will likely end up with Kipnis on most sites due to Cano's expense and my distaste for the rest of the options. If you have some space but not enough for Cano, you can't go wrong with Dustin Pedroia as I expect the Red Sox to get to Chris Tillman rather easily today. If the Yankees-Indians game is rained out and you can't afford Pedroia, I will likely search for a real cheap option here, possibly Mark Ellis who is surrounded by a few LHB that should do some damage.
Shortstop
Top Play/Value Play
JJ Hardy (BAL) - Pricing aside I have Hardy as my top SS play today, but the fact that he is pretty cheap on most sites has me excited to utilize him. Hardy hits for solid power against LHP (.195 ISO), is hitting in a favorable environment (Fenway Park) and faces Felix Doubront who I mentioned earlier allows LHB to make hard contact (22.4 LD rate, 14.7 HR/FB rate). Hardy is always a bit of a boom or bust play, but I'm thinking he's more likely to go boom than bust today.
Given his price, I'm having a tough time not playing Hardy today as I like his chances of success better than a lot of the other SS's out there. Some other guys that I like if the price is right are Ian Desmond, Stephen Drew, Jed Lowrie and Asdrubal Cabrera. I probably lean towards Lowrie followed by Cabrera atop that list as they hit in a much better spot in the order than either Desmond or Drew. Lowrie is facing off against Jason Vargas who much to my dismay has been pretty effective the last few years. Still, Vargas is a FB pitcher and Lowrie has shown solid power against LHP (.197 ISO, 14 HR in 376 AB's). Asdrubal Cabrera is likely hitting 2nd against Phil Hughes who I have already labeled as risky.
Third Base
Top Play
Will Middlebrooks (BOS) - It's unfortunate for us DFS players that Middlebrooks' 3 HR game is now calculated into his price as he may be the top priced or near top priced 3B option on a lot of sites. However, I do like him the most today at 3B, salary aside. I am picking a lot of BOS/BAL guys as my recommendation but the early line in Vegas is an over/under of 9.5 that is currently 1.5 runs higher than anything else on the board. Expect this to be a high scoring game, and Middlebrooks' .254 ISO against RHP on his young career should definitely play well against Tillman's 1.51 HR/9 allowed to RHB.
Value Plays
Manny Machado (BAL) - I know this is getting repetitive, but it is rather simple. The 2-hole hitter facing a LHP who struggles against RHB in Fenway Park in a game with the highest over/under is a solid value play.
Kyle Seager (SEA) - Make sure to double check on this, but I believe Derek Lowe is filling in for the injured Matt Harrison today, which is good news for Kyle Seager who is relatively cheap on most sites. Seager's .333 wOBA against RHP is okay, but what really makes him a good play is Derek Lowe's .349 wOBA allowed to LHB. There is some risk here as Lowe is a GB machine but that wOBA allowed mark is the second worst to LHB of all starting pitcher's taking the hill today. UPDATE: Justin Grimm, not Derek Lowe, is starting for Texas today. I still like Seager's LHB as a value play against a RHP making his third career MLB start.
Outfield
Top Play
Andre Ethier (LAD) - You can basically copy and paste what I wrote about Adrian Gonzalez and post it here. Ethier has crushed RHP since 2011 with a .389 wOBA against them, and this meshes perfectly with Jason Marquis' .392 wOBA allowed to LHB - far and away the worst split of any starting pitcher today. In fact, no other pitcher has a wOBA allowed to any handedness of batter higher than .349 aside from Marquis' mark. Also, this isn't a case of a small sample size causing an outlier as Marquis has 150.1 innings since 2010 against LHB.
Other top plays include Jacoby Ellsbury and Bryce Harper if you are able to fit them in, and obviously I like Carl Crawford as I do all competent left handed Dodger bats today.
Solid Value Plays
Daniel Nava (BOS) - Nava is priced adequately on a couple of sites, but on the few I've seen where he is priced below your average OF, I'd go as far as to say he is a must play. You know all the reasons I like Boston players in general today by now, but one of the reasons I like Nava in particular (likely hitting 6th) is his .362 wOBA against RHP - much higher than I expected to see.
Nolan Reimold (BAL) - Reimold will likely be hitting towards the bottom of the order, which dampens his value a bit, but in what should be a high scoring game I still expect him to garner 4-5 at bats. Reimold hasn't shown to be all that great in limited playing time against LHP the past couple of years, but he has pop and was once a fantasy darling. There's definitely some risk here, but on a short slate night and with a Doubront blowup possible, I don't mind taking the risk.
Chris Young (OAK) - Young has been hitting high in the order against LHP and rightfully so. Since 2011 he has a .224 ISO and .370 wOBA against LHP. With Jason Vargas posting just a 35.2 GB rate against RHB since 2010, Young is one of the better gambles to hit a homer today even in a fairly bigger ballpark.
Other guys to keep an eye out on: Brett Gardner on a couple of sites is just still improperly priced and is worth taking almost every day unless there's a correction or you really don't need his cap relief. Nick Swisher makes for a strong value play as he's been underpriced, and we've gone over Hughes' riskiness. I also can't argue with Denard Span as a value play setting the table for the Nats against Dylan Axelrod.
Starting Pitcher
Top Play
Zack Greinke (LAD) - This is a pretty obvious choice as Greinke faces a Padres team that isn't very good, may be down one of their best hitters (Carlos Quentin) and the game is in Petco. With not a lot of games tonight, it might be worth it to pay up for Greinke as he is the safest source of points tonight and the only other pitcher who matches him skill wise (Felix Hernandez) has a difficult matchup.
Solid Value Plays
Dan Haren (WAS) - Haren is a little bit homer prone and coming off of a poor year, but on a short night he may be a risk worth taking. For starters, he is facing what is normally a very heavily right handed lineup in the White Sox. However, with Gordon Beckham out, platoon specialist Jeff Keppinger may have to play, and he's awful against RHP. Also, it's possible that with no DH, Adam Dunn (one of the few LHB in the lineup) may not start. Despite his somewhat reversed splits, I think this makes for a good matchup for Haren. An additional note: it looks like the wind is blowing in, which would be good for the FB pitcher.
AJ Griffin (OAK) - Griffin is a risky play because of his FB tendencies (37.1 GB rate), but he does have a career FIP under 4 and hopefully the Angels' ballpark (parkfactors.com has it ranked as the third best pitcher's park) mitigates Griffin's FB risk to some extent.
Weather
Weather wreaked havoc for daily gamers yesterday with some cancellations. It's early so this could change but here are the games that appear to be in jeopardy as of writing this, again focusing only on the evening games:
Danger Zone: The Yankees and Indians got washed out yesterday, and unfortunately it looks like there's a distinct possibility it happens again today. Currently it appears as if it is going to rain all day leaving a wet field for the start of game time. From there it just gets worse, as the expected chance of rain for the hour the game starts is 90% and then increases to 100% in the hours following.
Keep an Eye On: I really hope the Red Sox and Orioles do not get washed out as this will make it very difficult to field competitive lineups today. The bad news is it appears that rain is expected pretty consistently throughout the evening. The good news is there is no hour with a percentage chance of rain greater than 50%, and no hour greater than 40% prior to 9 p.m, so perhaps they'll be able to squeeze this in.
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