Make sure in addition to reading the Fix each day you are following me (https://twitter.com/leonem4444) and Drew (https://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer) on Twitter. We often provide updates and advice as it gets closer to roster lock time each day and make adjustments based on weather/lineup information. For example, Drew tweeted out to replace Edwin Jackson with Clay Buchholz yesterday, which was obviously very beneficial for those who were able to do so.
Before we get into today's recommendations, it is important to remind everyone to understand your scoring format and the pricing of the individual players on the site you're playing. These vary from site to site and all daily sites price their players differently, which could make someone a must start on one site but not another. It is also important to double check starting lineups as news often breaks after this column is written. In the space below I will break down the best plays by position and make notes as to which type of formats to utilize players. If you are new to the daily fantasy baseball scene, there are daily fantasy websites which offer one day contests. These contests are mostly salary cap games where you can take any players you want as long as you stay under the cap and meet the positional requirements and all are points-based (not roto). Please feel free to e-mail me at mleone@fantistics.com if you have any further questions regarding daily fantasy baseball.
WEATHER UPDATE: Unfortunately, the Rockies-Mets game is looking iffy. If that game is still too risky to use players from come game time, load up on the Phillies I have suggested and work in some more Nationals and Angels. I will try to be active on Twitter to keep you updated on the weather situation and possible replacements for Rockies-Mets players.
Catchers
Top Play
Joe Mauer (MIN) - Mauer is the top catcher today as he faces off against Joe Blanton. Over the past two seasons Mauer has hit .329/.412/.472 against RHP so he's a good bet to reach base multiple times today as Joe Blanton has allowed a .348 wOBA to LHB the last several season.
You also can't go wrong with Wilin Rosario, but he was too pricey for my taste on most sites.
Value Plays
AJ Ellis (LAD) - Ellis might not have a ton of upside due to his lack of power (career .123 ISO), but he has a good matchup today and is pretty cheap on most sites. He goes up against Eric Stults who really struggles against RHB (4.90 xFIP, 24.8 LD%). Conversely, Ellis is actually pretty good against LHP with a career .354 wOBA. There's a good chance he hits his value today given the matchup and his low price.
Ryan Doumit (MIN) - Doumit might actually be a better play than his teammate Joe Mauer value wise. He's likely cheaper than Mauer on most sites, and his skill set might be better lined up against Joe Blanton. Doumit hits for more power against RHP than Mauer does (ISO 40 points higher), and that's obviously a good thing but especially when facing a pitcher who yields 1.37 HR/9 to LHB. If price isn't a consideration, I still prefer Mauer's overall better skill set, but if there's a big gap in price, Doumit is a smarter play.
First Base
Top Play
Ike Davis (NYM) - I really like Ike Davis today. He's pretty cheap due to a slow start, and has a really good matchup. Davis takes his power (32 HR in 584 PA's last year) to Coors Field, which is by far the best hitting environment in MLB. The batter-pitcher matchup is also favorable to Davis. He has a .378 wOBA and .892 OPS against RHP since 2011 and faces off against Juan Nicasio who has allowed a .367 wOBA and whopping 1.64 HR/9 to LHB since 2010.
Value Plays
Edwin Encaranacion (TOR) - Gavin Floyd is actually pretty solid against RHB so I may choose to go with one of the other value plays today, but I have to point out Encarnacion when he's priced as low as he is on some sites. He had a pretty insane .312 ISO at home last year so even though the splits don't lineup as well as we would like with the pitcher, there's a lot of upside at his tag on most sites.
Ryan Howard (PHI) - Howard is an extremely strong play in regular leagues but especially in big field tournaments as he has a ton of HR upside today. Howard takes his .522 SLG against RHP from the last couple of years into one of the best hitting parks in MLB (Cincinnati). On top of that he faces Bronson Arroyo who has yielded 1.84 HR/9 to LHB the last three years - by far the worst HR split of any SP on the day. I think in general all the LHB in the Phillies lineup will give Arroyo headaches - leaving Howard with plenty of RBI/RS opportunities and one of the better probabilities of hitting a HR on the day.
Adam LaRoche (WAS) - I've noticed LaRoche way undervalued on some sites today. It's tough for me to not play Howard or Davis ahead of LaRoche, but on some sites LaRoche is cheaper so I could see it if you need the cap room. Yes, it is a L/L matchup, but as I pointed out last time Wade Leblanc faced the Nationals - he has some pretty extreme reverse splits. In fact, Leblanc's .382 wOBA allowed to LHB is the worst wOBA of any pitcher allowed to any batter handedness today.
Second Base
Top Play
Chase Utley (PHI) - You can pretty much just reread Howard's blurb as to why I like Utley today, but I will also point out that Utley has a 1.13 EYE against RHP since 2010 to go along with a triple slash of .289/.374/.482.
Value Plays
Daniel Murphy (NYM) - Murphy has been on a bit of a hot streak so he may be priced more than I'm willing to pay for on some sites, but he's still a good value on those that are a little slower to adjust salaries. He takes on Juan Nicasio, whose struggles against LHP we've already documented today, in Coors Field. Murphy for his career is a .299 hitter against RHP, and he will likely be hitting second today in a game that Vegas has pegged with a 10.5 total, which might be the highest I've seen so far this year.
Daniel Espinosa (WAS) - If you can't afford Utley or Murphy, Espinosa makes for a good play as he should be cheaper on most sites, and I expect the Nats lineup to do some damage today. Despite Leblanc's reverse splits, he's not very good against RHB, just not as bad. He has allowed RHB to post a .325 wOBA and hit more than one HR/9. Espinosa has a solid .802 OPS against LHP the last couple of years. UPDATE: Espinosa left yesterday's game with a wrist injury so make sure to double check he is in the lineup before using him. He would be replaced by Steve Lombardozzi, who may be an extremely cheap play on some sites.
Mark Ellis hitting second for the Dodgers against Eric Stults, who struggles versus RHB, is also deserving of consideration if he is priced cheaper than the above listed guys.
Shortstop
Top Plays
Troy Tulowitzki (COL) - As I mentioned before, this game has a total of 10.5 so it's no surprise that the best player at a weak position hitting cleanup is the top play. Unfortunately, he may be too expensive on some sites, but if you can fit Tulowitzki in (career .923 OPS at home) I don't think you will be disappointed.
Jimmy Rollins (PHI) - Rollins is a good top play as well who might be more suitable depending on your salary constraints. As I said previously, Arroyo really struggles against LHB, and he faces a Phillies lineup that will likely deploy 5-6 of them, Rollins included. Hitting in the 2-hole, Rollins is one of the better bets across MLB to score a run today.
I strongly suggest paying up for either Rollins or Tulowitzki today, but if you really can't afford it here are three cheaper guys with decent matchups: Alexei Ramirez (Buehrle in Toronto), Ian Desmond (Wade Leblanc) and Ruben Tejada (high run scoring game).
Third Base
Top Play
David Wright (NYM) - Wright is easily the top 3B play of the day. He is hitting cleanup in Coors in a game with a 10.5 run total. Nicasio has been better against RHP than LHP but still doesn't qualify as good (.320 wOBA allowed), and Wright has .283/.357/.466 line against RHP since 2011.
Value Plays
Ryan Zimmerman (WAS) - I won't get into numbers on this one as the rationale is pretty simple: Zimmerman is underpriced facing a bad pitcher (Leblanc) playing for one of the teams I expect to score a handful of runs today.
Chris Nelson (COL) - Nelson isn't an ideal play, likely hitting 8th for the Rockies. However, he's cheap on most sites, and frankly anyone participating in this game is worthy of consideration. Nelson is a .278/.329/.422 hitter against RHP.
Outfield
Top Plays
Carlos Gonzalez (COL) - Carlos Gonzalez has a .317/.392/.565 line against RHP, and he has a career 1.002 OPS at home. He is going up against Dillon Gee who allows 1.22 HR/9 to LHB and has a 5.02 FIP against them. The matchup and environment combine to make CarGo today's top outfield play.
Matt Kemp (LAD) - Matt Kemp might be the best value of the three top OF plays I have listed as a slow start has his price dropping on most daily sites. He absolutely crushes LHP - posting a whopping .448 wOBA and 1.089 OPS against LHP since 2011. Today, he faces Eric Stults who has allowed a triple slash of .271/.334/.417 to RHB.
Dexter Fowler (COL) - Fowler has a .371 wOBA against RHP and hits for a good amount of power against it as well (.199 ISO). Those numbers are since 2011. Hitting leadoff in the highest expected scoring game of the day with those splits earns Fowler a mention amongst the top OF plays of the day.
Value Plays
Dayan Viciedo (CHW) - I always knew Viciedo was really good against LHP, but I didn't realize he was this good. Since 2011, Viciedo has an elite .434 wOBA against LHP with an enormous .618 slugging percentage. He's facing Mark Buehrle today (.326 wOBA allowed to RHB) in the Rogers Centre, a ballpark that certainly enhances right handed power (just ask Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion). He's one of the few non Mets, Rockies, Phillies guys that I am strongly trying to fit into my lineup today.
Lucas Duda (NYM) - Duda has a .193 ISO against RHP the last couple of years and is a good upside play today in Coors against a pitcher (Nicasio) who has allowed 1.64 HR/9 to LHB.
Mike Baxter (NYM) - Okay, by now you know I am willing to take pretty much just about anyone in this Colorado-New York game. Baxter often plays against RHP for the Mets, and although it is a somewhat limited sample size (244 PA's), I was surprised to see he actually hits RHP pretty well (.362 wOBA). Knowing that split, the opposing pitcher's splits (Nicasio) and the environment (Coors), you could make a good case for playing Baxter where he is really cheap, allowing you to get in more expensive guys - like one of the top SS.
Domonic Brown (PHI) - You know the drill. I'll take my LHB against Arroyo in Cinci any day of the week.
I should also mention that if you can work them in, Mike Trout and Josh Hamilton are good plays against a horrific Mike Pelfrey. They've started to turn it around the past couple of days, but their prices haven't fully reflected that yet. There are just so many good matchups taking place in better ballparks, that I'm not sure I'll be able to work either one of these guys in much to my dismay. Another guy who could be really cheap and a solid play if he starts is Laynce Nix. The Phillies sometimes start him against RHP, and obviously this is a good matchup to do that in. Nix has a .198 ISO against RHP since 2011.
Starting Pitcher
Safest Play
Jordan Zimmermann (WAS) - Zimmermann is the safest play of the day. He is pitching in a pitcher's park in Miami against one of the worst offenses in the league. The only thing keeping Zim from being a must start is a lack of K upside in this game. Despite how bad Miami is, they have a bunch of guys who make weak contact but do not strike out. Off of the top of my head, Polanco, Pierre, Brantly, Solano, Coghlan all have pretty low K rates against RHP, so I might actually drop off of Zim (likely the most expensive SP on the day) and play some of the cheaper value guys listed before so I can pay up for more hitting.
Value Plays
Lance Lynn (STL) - Lynn might actually be the best SP play of the day, priced a tad below Zim on most sites. He's a bit riskier but definitely has much higher K upside. He is facing a Pirates team that had the highest K rate in MLB against RHP last year. Lynn has been a monster in his first 2 starts this year (2.89 FIP, 2.86 xFIP, 29.6 K%) and even last year despite trailing off considerably over the second half, he ended up with a strong 24.2 K%.
Tommy Milone (OAK) - Milone was awesome at home last year (2.74 ERA, .271 wOBA allowed), and today he is home against an Astros team that is just plain terrible. As of writing this, the Athletics are Vegas' biggest favorites on the day so Milone is obviously one of the best bets to get a win today as well.
Erik Bedard (HOU) - On sites where Bedard is really cheap or the value of a win isn't as important, Bedard makes a decent value play. He's obviously risky, but pitching in Oakland's big park should mitigate some of that. Also, if Oakland is without Coco Crisp and Yoenis Cespedes, they are going to have to start 1 or 2 more LHB than they normally like to do against LHP. Of the pitchers starting today, Bedard has the third highest K/9 since 2010 (Lynn, Lee).
I didn't write up Chad Billingsley as he did not look super sharp in his last start, but he's probably pretty safe today as well at home against the Padres with the Dodgers being a heavy favorite. I'm avoiding Cliff Lee because he is in a hitter's park against a good team making me unwilling to pay his high salary on most sites.
Cheap Gamble
Joe Blanton (LAA) - Blanton's biggest weakness is his proneness to giving up the long ball (giving up around 1.3 HR/9 the last four years), but hopefully Minnesota's big ballpark and the colder weather there will help Blanton keep the ball in the park tonight. He might be a risk worth taking as with so many juicy hitting matchups the salary relief will be welcome. Going up against a Twins team that doesn't exactly intimidate and with the Angels being a favorite, I'll probably roll the dice on Blanton on sites where you need to start multiple pitchers.
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