Clay Buchholz (SP - BOS): Buchholz put the exclamation point on a remarkable start to the season with 8 more shutout innings against the Rays. Buchholz allowed just 2 hits, did walk 4, and struck out 11 batters lowering his ERA to 0.41 on the season and improving his record to 3-0. Buchholz strong start to the season has been a bit bewildering. Prior to the Sunday start his swinging strike rate and chase rate were both down. He was walking more batters and his K Rate was rising thanks to him working deeper into counts. He also was getting fewer ground balls (44.4% vs. career 49.4%), yet having far more success. Sunday was a bit of a different animal though as he induced 14 swinging strikes on his 109 pitches. The strong performance now puts his swinging strike rate back in-line with his career average (9.1%). At this rate Buchholz strikeout rate is likely to settle in closer to the 18% K% he's posted in the past and means the strikeouts should settle around 7 K/9. Throw in a weaker GB Rate and you've actually got a set of peripherals that looks weaker than what we've seen in the past from Buchholz. If you believe the strikeout rate can far out-pace his career averages with similar swinging strike rates, then Buchholz is a potential breakout player. But if like me, you believe the strikeout rate is likely to regress Buchholz makes for a fine sell-high candidate. With a nice back-story on John Ferrell's return to Boston and Buchholz early season success off of a great spring training, I think it's likely there are enough believers in Buchholz turning a corner that you can get a strong return.
Brandon Morrow (SP - TOR): I'm a bit perplexed by Brandon Morrow's start to the 2013 season. Morrow was effective on Sunday allowing just 2 ER's over 6 innings of work. He allowed 6 hits and 1 walk, while striking out 3. He continues to generate a below average GB Rate, just 33.3% on Sunday and 34.5% on the season, and his swinging strike rate is in steep decline. For his career Morrow has been a dominating strikeout artist (24.8% K%, 10.8% swinging strike rate), but those numbers took a step back last season (21.4%, 9%) and they're coming down even further to start 2013 (15.5%, 6.6%). With fewer ground-balls and fewer strikeouts, Morrow is a vastly different pitcher as a fantasy asset. To his credit Morrow has pounded the strike zone more consistently with this approach and his walks are way down, but he's now dependent on a good fortune on batted balls and a high LOB% for his success. The current 4.66 xFIP matches his early season 4.60 ERA and suggests Morrow is barely fantasy worthy. The even more confusing part of this whole thing is the fact that Morrow actually experienced a velocity bump in his first two starts. Now his velocity was back to 92.8 mph yesterday which is in-line with last year's performance, but it's unusual to see the peripherals to continue to take steps back in the first two starts with increased velocity. I don't own Morrow anywhere this year, but if you're a Morrow owner I'd suggest taking the next strong start as an opportunity to float him around.
Brett Gardner (OF - NYY): Gardner launched his 2nd HR of the year in a 3-0 win over the Orioles on Sunday night baseball. Gardner's start to the season has been an interesting one from a skills perspective. He's taken a much more aggressive approach at the plate swinging at 43.5% of pitches compared to a career average of 34% and as a result he's been a bit of a different player. Gardner's BB Rates and K Rates are way down because he's making contact earlier in the count. This gives his batting average a better shot at being additive (current .244 impacted by a .250 BABIP), but also puts his on-base percentage at more risk because it's more BABIP dependent than BB dependent (as it was previously). When Gardner has made contact early on it hasn't been particularly solid. His 11.1% LD Rate is below his 12.5% infield-fly-ball rate and in general a 44% overall fly-ball rate isn't a great thing for a player whose game is built on speed. Despite all the weak contact early on he's still managed to contribute 8 runs and 6 RBI's along with the 2 HR's. It's easy to say it's too early to judge whether this change in approach is here to stay for Gardner but swing % is one of the metrics that tends to show predictive power the earliest (around the 50 PA mark). If Gardner maintains this change in approach the scenarios for his production widens and he becomes a bit more volatile player. While he's been able to make up for some poor batted ball distribution early by a strong run-scoring environment, Gardner's value could take a meaningful hit without the security of a high BB Rate.
Paul Konerko (1B - CHW): Konerko connected on his 2nd HR of the season in the White Sox 3-1 win over the Indians on Sunday. Konerko's had a slow start to the season hitting just .220/.283/.415 but the peripherals early in the season are encouraging. Konerko's 25.7% chase rate is right in-line with the last few years performance and his 5.8% swinging strike rate is actually down almost 2 percentage points from last year. Konerko's walks are down a bit early, but his strikeout rate is right in line and he's posted a 27.3% LD Rate (career 21.2%) but earned just a .206 BABIP (career .288 BABIP). When he hasn't been hitting line drives, he's been getting the ball up in the air (48.5% FB Rate); however, a sub-10% HR/FB Rate has suppressed some of his fantasy value. With similar plate discipline skills as years past and stronger batted ball data, Konerko's slow start to the season is largely the result of bad luck. He's a solid buy-low candidate as a veteran that is out of favor in the fantasy community.
CJ Wilson (SP - LAA): I wasn't particularly high on CJ Wilson coming into the season and the early returns haven't done much to change my opinion. Last year Wilson saw his BB Rate regress back to career numbers and his K Rate came down as hitters chased fewer pitches outside the strike zone. Through his first two starts this year, Wilson's BB Rate continues to climb (13.75% BB%) and his K Rate continues to tumble (17.5% K%). He's been able to keep the ERA down thanks to a favorable LOB% and his current 5.45 xFIP suggests he may be a below average fantasy asset going forward. Wilson pitches in a favorable environment and can still get GB's at an above average rate (50%) so there's a chance he keeps the ERA down, but I expect the WHIP to be around or worse than the 1.34 mark he posted last year, which is likely going to do more damage than good to your ratio categories. What you're left with is a pitcher who is slightly above average in W's and K's and below average in WHIP and average in ERA. I don't think that's the profile of a Top 30 starter anymore and would consider shopping him if you can get that value in return.
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