As we prepare for our 2nd Sunday of the season, it's important to remind everyone how often managers use Sunday as a "rest" day for players (catchers especially). As a result, you'll need to be fervent in lineup checking on Sunday in order to ensure the best results and when in doubt pick a player that you've already seen a lineup posted for. Usually we'll get all the day game lineups before the 1:00 games lock, but sometimes those 4:00 games trickle in right before lineups lock. I would say Sundays more than any other day require the daily player to be around the computer prior to games locking. I stress this because the majority of the editions of the Sunday Fix this year will be written the night before, without the knowledge of lineups.
In addition, please make sure to sign up at the bottom of the page to be added to our email list. Shortly, we'll be adding email alerts for lineup and weather and to make sure you're getting those you'll need to be on the email list. Hopefully this service helps take some of the "waiting around for lineups" out of your hands and onto ours. With that out of the way, let's take a look at the Sunday slate.
Weather: There's a lot of wind out there today which could make things interesting for the long-ball. The totals in games haven't changed too much, so I'm not making any firm decisions based on it, but the wind appears to be blowing out greater than 20 mph in St. Louis, Chicago, and Kansas City. The only game that appears to be a concern for postponement is in Minnesota where there is a high chance of freezing rain and snow.
Before we get into today's recommendations, it is important to remind everyone to understand your scoring format and the pricing of the individual players on the site you're playing. These vary from site to site and all daily sites price their players differently, which could make someone a must start on one site but not another. In the space below I will break down the best and worst plays by position and make notes as to which type of formats to utilize players. If you are new to the daily fantasy baseball scene, there are daily fantasy websites which offer one day contests. These contests are mostly salary cap games where you can take any players you want as long as you stay under the cap and meet the positional requirements and all are points-based (not roto). Please feel free to e-mail me at ddinkmeyer@fantistics.com if you have any further questions regarding daily fantasy baseball.
Catchers:
Best Values:
Ryan Doumit (MIN) - Doumit is off to a tough start, hitting .184/.262/.263 going into play on Saturday, and as a result his price has come way down on sites. He's typically in the lineup every-day either via the C or DH slot which gives me some comfort that he'll be in there on Sunday. Doumit is a switch-hitter who for his career has been significantly more effective against RHP than LHP. He's hit .276/.335/.464 in his career against RHP and his opponent on Sunday has been particularly susceptible to LHB's. I picked on Dillon Gee's first start earlier this week noted the LH-heavy Phillies lineup was a nightmare matchup and unfortunately for Gee he gets a similar matchup on Sunday against the Twins who have 3 of their 4 best hitters hit from the left side. Gee has allowed LHB's to hit .243/.337/.408 against him in his career and in his peripherals, in particular, have shown weakness. He's walked nearly 11% of the batters and allowed 1.22 HR/9 to the lefties over the last three years. With the Twins offense lefty-heavy in the middle Doumit figures to get some opportunities with men on base and he figures to have a fine matchup himself to do some damage. Take the discounted price as an opportunity to employ Doumit in a favorable matchup.
Miguel Montero (ARZ) - Montero is going to be a bit of a risky play since he partakes in a late-game, but with the Dodgers starting a lefty on Saturday night I expect Montero to get his typical day off on Saturday instead of Sunday. This should allow Montero to face Josh Beckett a RHP that is dealing with identity issues after losing velocity the last few years. Beckett has surrendered 1.27 HR/9 to LHB's in the last 3 years and posted a 4.30 FIP. In his first two starts against SD and SF in strong pitching environments Beckett has allowed LHB's to hit .308/.333/.615. Last year those numbers were .273/.338/.463, suggesting the three year trends continue to get worse. Montero has crushed RHP in his career to the tune of .281/.360/.463 and Chase Field in Arizona is a strong hitting environment, approximately 12% above league average. Add it all up and you've got a strong matchup for Montero and the LHB's in the Diamondbacks lineup.
The Studs:
Wilin Rosario (COL) - Rosario has really hit LHP early in his career (.341/.380/.744) and his opponent on Sunday, Clayton Richard, has given up 1.24 HR/9 and posted a 4.75 FIP against RHB's. Rosario has also had some success in limited AB's against Rosario as he's gone 4-6 with a 2B and a HR. The only way this matchup could be better for Rosario is if it came in Coors Field. PETCO isn't what we'd call a hitters environment but Rosario's incredible numbers against LHP and tremendous raw power will play in any park in baseball. You'll have to confirm he's in the lineup for the late game but I'm anticipating Rosario's presence against LHP's will secure his spot in the lineup on Sunday.
Joe Mauer (MIN) - Everything I wrote about Ryan Doumit applies to Joe Mauer, only he's a much better LHB than Ryan Doumit. Mauer has hit .338/.425/.512 against RHP's in his career and his rest days typically come in the DH spot. If he's priced moderately on sites because of the Twins offensive struggles early on I'd be prepared to take advantage.
First Base:
Best Value Play:
Brandon Belt (SF) - Our love for Brandon Belt hasn't been rewarded in the early going. He's hit just .167/.189/.250 on the young season and his peripherals don't look inspiring at first glance. He's struck out in 24% of his PA's and walked in just 2%, but a look at his batted ball data does reveal some bad fortune. Belt's posted a 37% LD Rate so far but earned just a .222 BABIP. The extremely strong LD Rate early on suggests he's hitting the ball with authority but just into a bit of bad luck. On Sunday he'll get a matchup against Edwin Jackson who has allowed a .335 wOBA over the last three years to LHB's and the matchup will take place in Wrigley Field where left-handed power is elevated above the league average. Early weather predictions have the wind blowing out on Sunday so Belt may have the chance at some wind-aided fantasy production as well. For near the minimum on many sites Belt has immense upside.
Adam Dunn/Paul Konerko (CHW) - Both are priced fair to just below fair and both get to take on the human batting practice machine Brett Myers. Myers has allowed 7 HR's in his first 10 1/3 innings as an Indian and for his career he's allowed 1.30 HR/9 as a starter. The wind has been blowing out through much of the early part of the season in Cleveland which coupled with Myers propensity for the long-ball makes it a high probability that one of Dunn or Konerko will leave the yard on Sunday. Of the two Dunn's left-handedness and his cheaper price on most sites is a bit more appealing. Myers has surrendered a .329 wOBA to LHB's over the last three years and that number dips to .311 wOBA against RHB's.
Ike Davis (NYM) - Davis' price seems to vary wildly across sites so make sure you're shopping around here. If you can get him at an average price the matchup with Kevin Correia is a strong one. Correia has allowed a 4.75 FIP, .322 wOBA to LHB's over the last three years and he's given up 1.13 HR/9. Davis has done so much of his work against RHP in his career as he's hit .262/.355/.490 against RHP. The park in Minnesota does a lot to suppress LH power so it's not the ideal setting for Davis' talents but the matchup is a strong one if you can find him at an affordable price.
Ryan Howard (PHI) - The opposing pitcher for Sunday's tilt with the Marlins is an ideal matchup for Ryan Howard. Kevin Slowey is a fly-ball oriented pitcher who really struggles to miss bats against lefties. He's only been able to strike out 17% of the LHB's he's faced over the last three years while allowing a 49% FB Rate and a 20% LD Rate. In total the .340 wOBA allowed to LHB"s is the 2nd worst of all starters going today (who have thrown more than 50 innings) and the Phillies lefty-heavy offense should be able to put some runs up against the Marlins hurler.
Cheap Play:
Greg Dobbs (MIA) - I've had the pleasure of watching a lot of Roy Halladay's starts the last few years as he's often been the core to my elite SP strategy in season-long leagues and one of the hitters who has given Halladay the most problems in the last few years oddly enough is Greg Dobbs. Dobbs has gone 8-18 off Halladay with 2 2B's and a HR and having seen almost all of these AB's, Dobbs just looks exceptionally comfortable with Halladay's repertoire. Halladay has been struggling with velocity issues and his performance against LHB's early in the season has been particularly alarming as he's allowed them to hit .375/.474/.438 with a ridiculous 41.7% LD Rate. This obviously a very small sample we're dealing with but Dobbs familiarity and Halladay's recent struggles against LHB's makes me think Dobbs is more than a throw-away. He doesn't have a ton of upside at the 1B position but I do think he has a strong chance to rack up multiple hits.
Expensive Options to Target: Joey Votto (CIN), Albert Pujols (LAA)
Second Base:
Best Values:
Jason Kipnis (CLE) - Kipnis was scratched on Saturday with a sore left elbow so you'll have to check the lineups on Sunday morning to make sure he's good to go. His slow start to the season has him severely under-valued compared to other potential top 5 2B. Perhaps the elbow is the reason for the slow start and there's some health issues going on here but Kipnis priced as a below average 2B is worth a shot against RHP, even good RHP like Jake Peavy. Kipnis has hit .273/.342/.446 in his career against RHP and Jake Peavy while very good has surrendered 1 HR/9 to LHB's along with a 19% LD Rate and 43% FB Rate. That is an awful lot of balls in the air and with the wind blowing out at Progressive Field Kipnis has a chance to rack up an XBH. In his brief career against Peavy, Kipnis has been a bit all or nothing. He's homered twice but also struck out three times in 8 AB's. This is more a play on price than on matchup.
Rickie Weeks (MIL) - Weeks and the rest of the Brewers offense is generally better against LHP than RHP and on Sunday they'll get to face Jaime Garcia after being shut down by Shelby Miller and Adam Wainwright over the weekend. Weeks has hit .267/.397/.446 in his career against LHP and the 15.3% BB Rate against LHP's should especially come into play against Jaime Garcia. Garcia has walked 7.5% of the LHB's he's faced and Weeks has walked 5 times against him in 27 career PA's while posting a .227/.370/.409 line against Garcia. This is another one where Garcia is a pretty good pitcher and he's particularly strong at home but Weeks price seems to have hit rock bottom due to his slow start.
Aaron Hill (ARZ) - Shop around on Hill as his price varies on most sites. If he's a significant step down from the top tier and you're spending at 2B he's a fine option. Beckett has really struggled this year pitching in good environments and on Sunday he'll have to throw in Chase Field, a park that plays 12% above the league average for runs scored. Hill hits LHP a tiny bit better than RHP but his career numbers against righties are nothing to sneeze at: .274/.324/.430 and his career against Josh Beckett has been impressive. He's gone 15-37 with 7 2B's and a HR, while hitting .405/.450/.676 against the RHP. Hill was also out of the lineup yesterday with a hand injury and with the late start he remains a risk as well, but if you see him in the lineup he's a nice play.
Expensive Options to Target: Chase Utley (PHI), Ian Kinsler (TEX)
Shortstop:
Best Values:
Starlin Castro (CHC) - On a few sites Castro's price is way down and against a struggling Tim Lincecum I think Castro is an acceptable play on the sites where his price is depressed. Lincecum's big issue has been an elevated LD Rate the last year and a half and Castro and his career 20% LD Rate are a nice match. In a limited sample, Castro has hit 4-13 with 2 2B's against Lincecum and only struck out once. If he's priced as an average SS he's a strong play.
Ian Desmond (WAS) - In Desmond's breakout year last season he hit .303/.331/.571 against LHP and for his career he's posted a .771 OPS against LHP. On Sunday Paul Maholm will take the mound and while Maholm has been effective this season, he has been slightly worse against RHB's as opposed to LHB's. He's served up a .331 wOBA and only struck out 13.3% of RHB's. Desmond's biggest weakness is contact so when we remove those struggles for Desmond you've got a really nice matchup. The Nationals game doesn't figure to be a high run-scoring environment so I probably won't be deploying Desmond, but he's a fine play.
The Stud:
Troy Tulowitzki (COL) - With a lack of viable SS options I'm almost definitely playing Tulowitzki on Sunday. Tulo has obliterated LHP in his career to the tune of .306/.387/.538 and his opponent on the mound on Sunday, Clayton Richard, he's especially had success against. Tulowitzki has hit .533/.632/1.133 in his 15 AB's against Richard which includes 3 HR's, 4 BB's, and 0 K's. Richard has allowed a .340 wOBA to RHB's over the last three years and surrendered 1.24 HR/9. This matchup has great splits advantages on both sides and elite pitcher-vs.-batter data as the cherry on top. I'll likely own Tulowitzki across all the sites on Sunday.
Third Base:
Best Value Play:
Conor Gillaspie (CHW) - Gillaspie is likely priced near the minimum on most sites as he's just recently been called up and doesn't have much prior major league success. He's shown good plate discipline and performance in the minors hitting .287/.358/.420 across 5 minor league seasons. He's gotten off to a hot start with the White Sox and they get to face Brett Myers who is not only homer-prone but struggles against LHB's. If you can find Gillaspie as a minimum priced option on your site, he's worth a shot as most of the 3B options don't have a ton of value on Sunday.
Kevin Youkilis (NYY) - Some sites that are aggressive on splits and eary-season performance won't have Youkilis as much of a value, but those that are slow to adapt you can look to take advantage of Youkilis' price on Sunday. Youkilis has been an elite hitter against LHP in his career posting a .297/.417/.511 line against lefties and on Sunday he'll face Wei-Yen Chen a LHP for the Orioles. Chen serves up almost 1.4 HR/9 to RHB's and in Yankee Stadium we'd envision that number playing up a bit. With Youk hitting clean-up in a high run-scoring environment against a pitcher who struggles against RHB, Youkilis is a plus play if you can find him for anything below an elite player's price.
Under-priced Studs:
You can get a discount on a few of the higher end players on Sunday, including Adrian Beltre and Ryan Zimmerman. Zimmerman gets a plus splits advantage against Paul Maholm and Beltre gets the youngster Brandon Maurer who has looked anything but big-league ready in his first two outings. I like both but prefer Beltre over Zimmerman if you're looking for value on elite players.
The Stud to pay for:
David Wright (3B) - Kevin Correia allows a .342 wOBA to RHB's and has served up 1.24 HR/9 in the last 3 years to them. MIN's park plays tough on power but is more susceptible to RHP than LHP and while David Wright has done most of his damage in his career against LHP, he's been pretty good against RHP too (.289/.364/.483). In the head-to-head matchup against Correia he's had rather remarkable success hitting .765/.765/1.471 in 17 AB's. That's a 13-17 with 3 2B's, 3 HR's and 2 K's. Correia is "due" for a bit of regression in his ERA after a couple shaky but effective starts to begin the season and with a shaky bullpen behind him the Mets could continue to pile on runs for the third straight game. Wright is the top option at 3B to pay for on Sunday.
Outfield:
Best Value Plays:
David Murphy (TEX) - We like to take our chances on David Murphy when Texas is facing weak RHP. In Brandon Maurer's first two starts he's allowed a rather ridiculous .504 wOBA to LHB's as he's allowed 12 ER's in just 6 2/3 innings. Murphy typically hits 5th against RHP right behind Berkman and Beltre. For his career Murphy has hit .289/.356/.480 against RHP and with Maurer's early struggles this seems like a good matchup to utilize Murphy.
Carlos Beltran (STL) - Beltran's been a staple of the value section for the last few days as the Cardinals have faced a number of HR-prone RHP's. They get another one on Sunday as Marco Estrada takes the bump for the Brewers. Beltran's still priced as an average OF and Estrada allows 1.16 HR/9 to LHB's along with a near 10% BB Rate. Beltran's been slightly better from the right side of the plate in his career (.382 wOBA) but his .368 wOBA vs. RHP isn't too bad either. Beltran is one of those players who could get a Sunday off as he's been battling a toe injury, so make sure to confirm with the Cardinals lineup. If he's in the middle of it and still priced like an average OF option, there's an opportunity to exploit some value.
Domonic Brown (PHI) - Brown has started to pick up his production a bit as he's now hit safely in four straight and picked up an extra base hit in two of those four. The matchup with Kevin Slowey on Sunday should be one that allows the Phillies to put base-runners on in front of Brown and afford him some RBI opportunities. Slowey's fly-ball tendencies should also play nicely into Brown's power as almost all of Brown's power in his career has come against RHP (.174 ISO). If you can get Brown well below the average OF price as is the case on a number of sites I think Brown is a solid play tomorrow.
Other Potential Value Plays: Andy Dirks (DET), Nate Schierholtz (CHC), Chris Denorfia (SD), Ben Francisco (NYY), JD Martinez (HOU), Alfonso Soriano (CHC), Cameron Maybin (SD), Seth Smith (OAK), Matt Joyce (TB)
Under-priced Star OF's to Target: Jose Bautista (TOR), Josh Hamilton (LAA), Mike Trout (LAA), Michael Cuddyer (COL), Ryan Braun (MIL)
Starting Pitchers:
Best Value Plays:
Alex Cobb (TB) - Cobb put together a great first start of the season after a really strong spring. Fortunately for fantasy owners he's priced off of his 4.03 ERA last season as a part-time starter. Cobb's 3.54 xFIP last season is probably a more representative expectation of his performance going forward as he combines an elite GB Rate with above average BB and K Rates. On Sunday he'll have a tough matchup against the Red Sox offense that is always tough in Fenway Park, but I think it's one he can handle. Cobb's extreme GB Rates (57% career) should mitigate the biggest issues in Fenway which are cheap XBH's. In addition the Red Sox have typically crushed RHP at home but the current version is a bit of a watered down lineup against RHP with no David Ortiz in the middle. The Red Sox do rank 3rd in baseball in wOBA against RHP but much of that production came in one thrashing of RA Dickey. On a day with a lot of below average starting options priced like average ones, I think Cobb is one of the few above average starters priced as an average one. The environment and the matchup are tough, but I think Cobb can handle it.
Edwin Jackson (CHC) - Weather and the lineups will play a big part in this one. You'll remember earlier in the week we recommended Jackson only to see Ryan Braun make a surprise return and the wind howl out at 20 mph in Wrigley. I'm speculating but Buster Posey has caught three straight days and I wouldn't be surprised to see him get a day off, if that's the case the downgrade from Posey to Hector Sanchez coupled with Angel Pagan being banged up would significantly weaken the Giants lineup against RHP. Jackson has good stuff and above average peripherals, but he does most of his damage against RHB's. The Giants have two threats from the left side (Belt/Sandoval) that could be trouble for Jackson but if the rest of the lineup is watered down RHB's, there could be an opportunity to jump on Jackson after his price fell on a bad start. Keep an eye on weather and opposing lineup as there's a chance an opportunity emerges.
CJ Wilson (LAA) - Wilson is priced as an above average starter and while I'm not entirely certain he still qualifies as an above average starter, I certainly think the matchup on Sunday could provide above average performance. Houston is striking out in 31% of their PA's against LHP and earlier in the week they made Joe Saunders look like Cy Young. The one threat they pose is power against LHP and CJ Wilson does a pretty good job of mitigating that with his 50+% GB Rate. The lineups that challenge Wilson are ones that work counts and exploit Wilson's shaky command. I don't envision a young aggressive, power-hungry Astros lineup as the one to give him problems.
The Stud:
Matt Latos (CIN) - Latos is the pitcher I'm most willing to spend for on Sunday. He gets a road start in Pittsburgh which plays 6% under the league average in runs scored and suppresses HR's by 26%. Home Runs are pretty much the only weakness Latos has in his game (1.07 HR/9 last year, 3.21 xFIP). In the last 3 years he's thrown 19 innings at PNC Park and posted a 1.89 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 11.84 K/9. The Pirates continue to struggle generating offense against RHP and rank 2nd to last in the majors in wOBA vs. RHP with only the Marlins coming in worse. Latos seems like the safest stud starter going on Sunday and will be the one I lock in across multiple sites.
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