After Mike Leone got us off to a strong start on Opening Day, the pressure sure is on me to keep the chains moving! For those who don't know Mike was the winner of Draftstreet's Fantasy Baseball Championship last year, so it's no surprise he knows what he's doing. Do yourself a favor and give him a follow on twitter (https://twitter.com/leonem4444) so he can help you through the daily season. Now let's see if I can keep the momentum going on a shorter Tuesday slate.
Before we get into today's recommendations, it is important to remind everyone to understand your scoring format and the pricing of the individual players on the site you're playing. These vary from site to site and all daily sites price their players differently, which could make someone a must start on one site but not another. In the space below I will break down the best and worst plays by position and make notes as to which type of formats to utilize players. If you are new to the daily fantasy baseball scene, there are daily fantasy websites which offer one day contests. These contests are mostly salary cap games where you can take any players you want as long as you stay under the cap and meet the positional requirements and all are points-based (not roto). Please feel free to e-mail me at ddinkmeyer@fantistics.com if you have any further questions regarding daily fantasy baseball.
Catchers:
Best Values:
Jonathan Lucroy (MIL) - You'll have to check Lucroy's price on differing sites, he's actually quite expensive on Draftstreet for example, but he's one of the few catchers with an elite split advantage tomorrow. In Lucroy's career he's hit .325/.359/.571 against LHP and the opposing starting pitcher Jorge de la Rosa has allowed a .268/.359/.455 career line to RHB's including a 1.19 HR/9 and whopping 36% FB Rate. Jorge de la Rosa typically does a good job keeping the ball on the ground, but most of those ground balls come against LHB's (53%). With Lucroy's power and splits advantage in a home park that inflates right-handed power, Lucroy looks like one of the stronger catcher plays today. The key will be finding him at the right price.
Boom or Bust Play (best used in large tournaments):
Wilin Rosario (COL) - There is a good chance that all of Rosario's AB's against Marco Estrada end in either a strikeout or a home run. Estrada is exceptional against RHB's posting a very strong 3.23 FIP and 3.12 xFIP buoyed by an outrageous 25% K% and a miniscule 3% BB%. However, the one area that Estrada is susceptible against RHB's is that he serves up the long ball. He allows 1.22 HR/9 to RHB's and an alarming 44% Fly Ball Rate. Rosario does almost all of his damage against LHP (.341/.381/.754), but he does put 37% of his balls in play in the air against RHP and nearly 20% of those fly balls leave the yard. So what are we left with? A high risk/high reward option that could either leave the yard or swing and miss an awful lot.
Avoid:
JP Arencibia (TOR) - Arencibia is typically a boom-or-bust pick in his own right, but the power hitting catcher has an extremely unfavorable matchup on Tuesday against Justin Masterson. Over the last 3 years Masterson has posted a 2.98 FIP against RHB's and struck out 23% of the right-handed batters he faced. Arencibia strikes out in 28% of his AB's against RHP's and has posted a career .216/.273/.415 line against right-handed pitchers. Don't get sucked into one of the higher totals of the day (8.5 runs) and deploy a right-handed free swinger like JP Arencibia against Justin Masterson.
First Base:
Best Value Play:
Adam Lind (TOR) - Justin Masterson is awfully tough on RHB's but his low-angle release allows left-handed batters a long look. In his career Masterson has been touched up to the tune of .286/.367/.432 to LHB's as he's walked nearly 10% of the LHB's faced and allowed nearly a 1 HR per 9 innings. Masterson still gets plenty of ground-balls against LHB's (53%) but he allows a 19% LD Rate and strikes out well under the league average (14.1% K%). Adam Lind has largely been a disappointment for fantasy owners since a breakout 2009 season but he remains an above average bat against RHP. In his career he's posted an .836 OPS vs. RHP and over the last 3 years those numbers have been .795 OPS, .771 OPS, and .829 OPS. While Lind's overall value has been on the decline, his effectiveness vs. RHP has remained steady. His drop-off in production is the largely the result of becoming increasingly incompetent against LHP. Add in the strong offensive environment in Toronto and Lind makes for a nice value play on Tuesday.
If you can afford:
Paul Goldschmidt (ARZ) - Sites that take into account splits will have Goldschmidt priced pretty efficiently vs. LHP, but those that don't you'll find an opportunity for some value on Goldschmidt tonight. For his career Goldschmidt has been a league average hitter against RHP (.263/.333/.435) but against LHP, he turns into Albert Pujols (.311/.400/.598). Jaime Garcia is a pretty tough lefty, especially for power hitters (allows just a .381 slugging % to RHB) but he is a lefty and for Goldschmidt that's all that really matters. In a plus offensive environment against a left-handed pitcher, Goldschmidt makes for a strong play on Tuesday.
Avoid:
Adrian Gonzalez (LAD) - The Dodgers left-handed slugger doesn't particularly struggle vs. left-handed pitching, in fact last year he was better against lefties than righties (.846 OPS vs. .783 OPS), but Madison Bumgarner is pretty much death on left-handed batters. He's allowed a career .223/.268/.334 line to LHB's and strikes out 25% of the LHB's he faces while walking less than 5%. In addition while Gonzalez was better against LHP than RHP last year, for his career he's actually meaningfully worse (.793 OPS vs. .919 OPS). One of the reasons Gonzalez had success last year against LHP was his ability to go the other way and bat balls off the Green Monster in Fenway. Unfortunately this tact, which Gonzalez is very good at (staying back against LHP and driving the opposite way), isn't as effective in the spacious confines of Dodger Stadium. Those opposite field line-drives and fly-balls end up as outs instead of doubles. Stay away from the pricey LH on Tuesday.
Second Base:
Best Value Play:
Rickie Weeks (MIL) - Weeks delivered on Mike's recommendation yesterday by going 2-4 with a SB and 2 Runs in the Brewers come from behind win. As Mike alluded to yesterday Weeks price is depressed on some sites because of poor surface stats that were more the result of poor luck than skill deterioration. In addition, Weeks gets to face a LHP whom he's had some good success against (albeit in a very limited sample). Weeks has gone 4-7 with 3 2B's and 2 BB's (also 2 K's) in 9 career plate appearances against Jorge de la Rosa. The pitcher vs. batter data, in this case, is nice but the real reason I like Weeks tomorrow is his more extended sample of success against LHP. In his career he's hit .267/.396/.448 against LHP with a sparkling 15% BB Rate. This bodes well for the matchup with de la Rosa who walks nearly 10% of the right-handed batters he's faced over the last three years. Add in the fact that the Brewers lineup as a whole almost top to bottom hits left-handed pitching significantly better than they hit right-handed pitching and you've got the chance for an explosion from Milwaukee on Tuesday night.
Other Strong Plays Include: Aaron Hill (mashes LHP and gets Jaime Garcia in ARZ)
Cheap Play:
Matt Carpenter (STL) - Sadly this section is beginning to look identical to yesterday. Carpenter will be under-priced on many sites for a while because he's a new starter with a limited major league track record for the sites to evaluate pricing off of. He hit .299/.408/.450 in the minor leagues and gets sinker-ball specialist Trevor Cahill who at times struggles with his command. In a stacked Cardinals lineup playing in a great offensive environment in Chase Field, Carpenter remains a strong play as long as his price remains suppressed.
Avoid:
Ian Kinsler (TEX) - Avoid might be too strong here, but Kinsler hasn't seen Lucas Harrell especially well in a handful of AB's (6 AB's, 2 K's) and Harrell is a GB pitcher who gets 60% of the balls in play vs. RHB's on the ground. The extreme split will limit some of Kinsler's power and with other favorable options at 2B, it's probably in your best interest to not "pay up" for Kinsler on Tuesday.
Shortstop:
Cheap Play:
Jean Segura (MIL) - We're going to stick with our Brewers' themed blurbs today as Segura appears to be the best "affordable" SS option on Tuesday's slate. Segura hit .313/.367/.439 across 6 minor league seasons and flashed an adequate BB Rate in his big league debut last season (8%). Jorge de la Rosa's command issues plus the benefits of the other favorable RHB's in the Brewers lineup makes Segura a likely candidate to slip into a Run or an RBI, which at his price will be nearly enough to pay off his value. De la Rosa has also struggled in his career at holding runners on which caters to Segura's speed. Before de la Rosa needed Tommy John Surgery in 2011 he had allowed 10 SB's in just 59 innings of work.
Other Value Options: Alex Gonzalez (MIL), Jed Lowrie (OAK)
There's no one to avoid at the SS position and in-fact Jose Reyes, likely the most expensive option on many sites, actually is a strong play against Justin Masterson. There's another expensive hitter I'm saving my "must-play" status for but Reyes was in consideration if you have room to spend.
Third Base:
Third Base is an interesting position today so pay particular attention to pricing. If Adrian Beltre (5-7 with 2 2B's off Harrell) or Aramis Ramirez (another RH Brewer lefty-masher) are priced close to the pack it might be worth spending. On the other end of the spectrum on sites with position flexibility using Matt Carpenter at 3B and picking from one of the other 2B recommendations would be a strong move. Those would be my preferred options, if not well...
Cheap Play:
Luis Cruz (LAD) - Cruz hit .302/.326/.465 against LHP last year in a limited sample last season and Madison Bumgarner is at least human against RHB's. It's a low run-scoring environment and Cruz isn't an ideal play but he's unlikely to hurt you with strikeouts as he struck out in less than 6% of his plate appearances vs. LHP last year. This is a desperation play if you get stuck on salary.
Outfield:
Must-Play
Ryan Braun (MIL) - You're going to have to spend a pretty penny to get Braun in your lineups on Tuesday but in most cases I think it's going to be the right decision. Braun has hit a ridiculous .344/.416/.657 in his career against LHP and his limited sample against Jorge de la Rosa is even more absurd. Braun is 7-9 with 3 2B's, a HR, 3 BB's and 0 K's against de la Rosa in his career. I'm not sure I can replicate Mike Leone's 2 HR day from Bryce Harper yesterday but if there's a hitter I most want to try to make room for on Tuesday its Ryan Braun.
Other high priced OFs to consider: Carlos Gonzalez (COL)
Best Value Play:
Jon Jay (STL) - Jay, batting leadoff for the Cardinals, will continue to make this list against RHP in favorable run-scoring environments. Against a ground-ball specialist that strikes out a league average 16% of right-handed batters, Jay has little downside and plenty of upside if the Cardinals offense rebounds from a poor opening night. On most sites he's still priced as a 4th OF, a role he held last year and as a result is a nice bargain when putting together a lineup. Getting a cheap leadoff option from a game with the highest total on the board (9), is a strong start to building your OF.
David Murphy (TEX) - Murphy has always hit RHP extremely well in his career (.292/.359/.483) and Lucas Harrell is susceptible to LHB's as he's allowed a career .271/.370/.397 line against. Harrell's strong GB Rates help limit some of the power, but according to Baseball-reference's splits page Murphy's best numbers come against pitchers classified as "Ground-ballers" (.340/.397/.520 career rate vs GB pitchers). Hitting in the middle of a strong Texas lineup, Murphy would appear to be a strong value play on Tuesday.
Melky Cabrera (TOR) - We'll take all the left-handed bats we can get against Justin Masterson and Melky Cabrera's career 11-21 with 3 XBH, 3 BB's, and 0 K's certainly doesn't hurt things. As noted in the blurb on Adam Lind, Masterson really struggles vs. LHB's and Cabrera (a switch-hitter) hitting 2nd in the order should have a strong chance to score runs in front of Jose Bautista (good pitcher-vs.-batter history vs. Masterson) and then Adam Lind (another dreaded LH) hitting 5th. I think Cabrera's a great bet to get a hit and cross home plate on Tuesday, making him a nice value play on most sites.
Other Potential Values: AJ Pollock (ARZ - if hitting leadoff)
Starting Pitching:
Best Value Plays:
Jarrod Parker (OAK) - I'm a bit confused by how cheaply Parker is priced on sites today. He posted a 3.47 ERA last year with an acceptable 18.6% K% and his stuff showed room for additional growth. Parker's swinging strike rate of 9.9% was actually well above the league average and hinted at a chance for more growth in the strikeouts. In addition Parker is matched up against a Mariners offense that posted a .288 wOBA against RHP last year, worst in the majors. In fact the next worse, the Cubs were at .303 wOBA which means the difference between the Mariners offense against RHP and the 2nd worst offense was the equivalent to the difference between the 2nd worst offense and a league average offense. The Mariners have made some upgrades to their lineup including Kendrys Morales and Mike Morse, but the lineup likely remains below average against RHP and the game will take place in a low run-scoring environment in Oakland.
Hyun-Jin Ryu (LAD) - Ryu is a transport from the Japanese league and as a result most sites aren't really sure how to price him right now. On Draftstreet he's priced like an ace, but on DraftKings he's priced like a replacement level starter. On the right site, he's an exceptional value today. Those of you who subscribed to our draft software in the preseason will know we view Ryu as a Top 40 SP in his transition to the states and think he was undervalued in season long leagues by most. In a home start against a Giants offense that hasn't seen him yet, Ryu looks like a nice value play. Vegas has set the Dodgers-Giants run total at 6.5, the lowest of the day.
Hisashi Iwakuma (SEA) - Iwakuma had an unusual trend in his splits last year where he was actually far better as a starting pitcher than as a reliever. As a starter he posted a 2.65 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 95 IP while allowing opposing hitters to hit just .247/.304/.386. As a reliever Iwakuma was shelled to the tune of .252/.346/.459 and posted a 4.75 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. Typically it's the other way around for pitchers as they benefit from not having to conserve energy or pitches to get through a lineup multiple times. One of our other analysts Schuyler Dombroske speculated on our show this spring that Iwakuma had a difficult adjustment living up to expectations after being signed to a large contract and then almost immediately being thrown in the pen. Whatever the issue Iwakuma was a different pitcher once he was handed a rotation spot. He didn't allow more than 4 ER's in a single start all year and in 10 of his 16 starts he held the opposing team to 2 ER's or less. For a pitcher that on many sites is being priced like a replacement level starter, Iwakuma looks like a tremendous value play.
The Stud:
Yu Darvish (TEX) - Most daily scoring sites heavily reward strikeouts and that's a good thing for Yu Darvish because only one SP in the majors last year struck out more batters per 9 innings than Yu Darvish (Max Scherzer). In addition the Astros projected lineup for today has 7 batters with a K% over 20% over the last 3 years and 4 batters with a K% over 27%. Those numbers are absurd. Darvish's skills match-up perfectly with this group of Astros free swingers and last year in the lone matchup with Houston Darvish fanned 11 in 8 innings of 2 ER ball. Darvish is priced like an elite starter on most sites, as he should (2nd half 2.80 FIP) and will be tough to fit in most lineups, but like Braun he has a high probability of earning his value.
If You Are Stuck...
If you are having trouble putting a lineup together, try to focus on the Brewers, Blue Jays, and Rangers as I expect those teams to be the highest scoring today. Also, try to find some value plays from the Cardinals-Diamondbacks game which has the highest over/under today at 9.
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