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Before we get into today's recommendations, it is important to remind everyone to understand your scoring format and the pricing of the individual players on the site you're playing. These vary from site to site and all daily sites price their players differently, which could make someone a must start on one site but not another. It is also important to double check starting lineups as news often breaks after this column is written. In the space below I will break down the best plays by position and make notes as to which type of formats to utilize players. If you are new to the daily fantasy baseball scene, there are daily fantasy websites which offer one day contests. These contests are mostly salary cap games where you can take any players you want as long as you stay under the cap and meet the positional requirements and all are points-based (not roto). Please feel free to e-mail me at mleone@fantistics.com if you have any further questions regarding daily fantasy baseball.
Weather Note:
Keep an Eye On - Pirates at Mets (30% chance of rain during game time and pretty much all day, isolated thunderstorms), Royals at Orioles (30% chance of rain during game time and pretty much all day, isolated thunderstorms),Twins at Red Sox (30-50% chance of rain before, during and after game; calling for a few showers)
Twitter: If you can, it is a good idea to follow both me (https://twitter.com/leonem4444) and Drew (https://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer) on Twitter. We often post updated thoughts as lineup and weather information becomes known.
As I usually do on Thursdays, I am not writing up the day games because there are only 3 of them (all at different times), and I think it's a bad idea to commit money to games when rosters will lock before lineup information is known.
Catchers
Top Play
Joe Mauer (MIN) - Mauer has gotten hot during this series at Fenway Park, and there's a good chance he stays that way today with a favorable matchup against John Lackey. Mauer hits RHP extremely well, posting a 1.10 EYE and hitting .326 against it since 2011. Meanwhile, Lackey has really struggled since 2010 allowing a whopping .370 wOBA to LHB which has led to a 5.27 ERA against them.
Best Value Play
Ryan Doumit (MIN) - Doumit has the same favorable matchup as Mauer does. His skills are clearly not as favorable as Mauer's (.338 wOBA, .180 ISO against RHP since 2011; trending downward), but he is a bit cheaper than Mauer on most sites.
Value Plays
Carlos Ruiz (PHI) - Ruiz is hitting in a very favorable hitting environment (Chase Field) and faces off against LHP Patrick Corbin. Ruiz has a .354 wOBA against LHP since 2011 thanks in part to an impressive 1.09 EYE, and last year his wOBA against southpaws was .381. His opponent, Patrick Corbin, has allowed a .320 wOBA to RHB and a high 21.9% LD rate.
Jarrod Saltalamacchia (BOS) - For his career, Salty's best split by far is at home against RHP as he is today. In that circumstance he has an .810 OPS and 26 HR in 586 at bats. He faces Kevin Correia today who has allowed 1.15 HR/9 to LHB since 2010, sporting a 4.78 FIP.
First Base
Top Plays
David Ortiz/Mike Napoli (BOS) - Both of the Boston 1B are lined up for potentially big games today at home against Kevin Correia. Ortiz has continued to rake the last couple of years posting a whopping .423 wOBA against RHP with a 1.010 OPS. Napoli since 2011 has a .401 wOBA with a .937 OPS. Opposing pitcher Kevin Correia has been bad against both lefties (.323 wOBA allowed) and righties (.338 wOBA allowed). Correia has also allowed more HR/9 to RHB, making Ortiz and Napoli pretty much dead even today, so just go with pricing as the tiebreaker.
Other top plays include Paul Goldschmidt at home against a LHP and Chris Davis at home against Jeremy Guthrie who is HR prone to LHB (1.39 HR/9 allowed since 2010). I think Davis is one of the most likely candidates to homer today.
Best Value Plays
Justin Morneau (MIN) - Yes, I continue to beat up on John Lackey, but I'm not alone in thinking this will be a high scoring game. Currently, the Twins-Red Sox game has an over/under of 9 runs which is tied for the highest on the day and the money odds indicate it could move even higher. As I mentioned before, Lackey has struggled against LHB (.370 wOBA allowed), and Morneau, despite his struggles after coming back from a concussion, has decent numbers against RHP since 2011 (.821 OPS, .190 ISO).
Brandon Belt (SF) - Belt's heavily pitcher friendly home park, is the only reason he is not listed alone as the top value play. Opposing pitcher Julio Teheran continues to be awful against LHB (.448 wOBA, 2.13 HR/9 allowed in 25.1 IP). That makes Belt, who I expect to have a breakout year, a really solid value play. He continues to rip line drives (23.7% LD rate) and has increased his loft for the second straight season (should lead to more power).
Second Base
Best Plays
Jose Altuve (HOU) - Altuve has a .384 wOBA against LHP and hits for surprisingly decent pop considering his size (.144 ISO). On sites where you are penalized extra for strikeouts, Altuve is even more valuable as he has struck out just 10.6% of the time against LHP. Vargas might not be the ideal opponent for Altuve to matchup against due to his high FB rate, but considering Altuve's prowess against southpaws and Vargas' mediocre ability to get RHB out (.315 wOBA allowed), I still think it's a good play.
Dustin Pedroia (BOS) - Although Pedey hits LHP much better than RHP, he is at home against Kevin Correia whose .338 wOBA allowed to RHB is the worst wOBA allowed to RHB of any SP in action today. And Pedroia is still pretty solid against RHP, posting a .343 wOBA since 2011.
Potential Value Play
Daniel Murphy (NYM) - I don't love Murphy who bats from the left side and does not hit same handed pitching well (.314 wOBA). However, on sites that price for splits he may be undervalued just because opposing pitcher Jeff Locke (southpaw) has been so bad at getting same handed batters out (.355 wOBA in 20 IP).
Shortstop
Top Play
Erick Aybar (LAA) - Aybar will likely be leading off for the Angels tonight against Lucas Harrell. Harrell is a decent pitcher because he keeps the ball in the yard, but those strengths of Harrell (51.2% GB rate against LHB) might actually work in the speedy Aybar's favor as he is not looking to hit for power anyways. Overall since 2010 Harrell has allowed a .346 wOBA to LHB, and Aybar has a .292 BA against RHP since 2011.
Value Plays
Ruben Tejada (NYM) - Facing a LHP, Tejada should be leading off tonight for the Mets. With a .299 BA and a .371 OBP (thanks to a double digit walk rate) against LHP, Tejada should find his way on base at least once against Jeff Locke who has walked 10.8% of the RHB he has faced leading to a .337 OBP allowed to RHB (high of the day). This also gives Tejada a good chance of scoring a run as Locke has a career 5.16 FIP.
Jimmy Rollins (PHI) - I don't love Rollins because he is way worse from the right side of the plate (just a .616 OPS in his last 413 PA's). However, he is really underpriced and is hitting in a very favorable offensive park in Arizona.
Third Base
Top Plays
Pablo Sandoval (SF) - Opposing pitcher Julio Teheran simply has not been able to get LHB out. It's a small sample size (25.1 IP) but even if you account for some regression, Teheran's true skill splits against LHB are likely some of the worst of any starting pitcher in action today. He has allowed a .448 wOBA and 2.13 HR/9, and the peripherals back up that Teheran has been bad. He has walked (9.6 BB%) almost as many lefties as he has struck out (10.4 K%) with a very low GB rate of 39.2%. Sandoval, who hits better from the left side of the plate, should be able to take advantage of this tonight as he has a .376 wOBA against RHP with a .222 ISO.
David Wright (NYM) - I prefer Sandoval to Wright today mostly due to price, but Wright is also a very strong option. He has hit southpaws very well the last few seasons (.376 wOBA) and opposing pitcher Jeff Locke has allowed a high LD rate (23.2%) and 1.23 HR/9 to RHB over 64.2 IP, which bodes well for Wright.
Value Plays
Michael Young (PHI) - Young is a good cheaper option today likely hitting third for the Phillies against LHP Patrick Corbin in Chase Field, a very favorable offensive environment. Since 2011, Young has been the Phillies best hitter against LHP with a really solid .341 BA which provides him with more daily fantasy value (particularly on sites that weigh singles greater than walks, although it's a minor difference) than it might real life value. Corbin has allowed a 21.9 LD% to RHB so Young has a good shot at a multi-hit game.
Mike Moustakas (KC) - Moustakas has not been that great the last few years (.310 wOBA against RHP), but ZIPS has him projected for an overall rest of season wOBA of .314, so after taking into account Moustakas' platoon splits, that's closer to .325 or so against RHP. That should be enough to make him a smart value play against Freddy Garcia who struggles in both hitter friendly environments (in Camden Yards today) and against LHB (.347 wOBA, 1.39 HR/9 allowed since 2010).
GPP Play
Pedro Alvarez (PIT) - Alvarez is always a bit of a boom or bust play with so much of his value tied into his HR totals. However, today he has a better chance to go boom than on most days as he faces Dillon Gee who has allowed 1.27 HR/9 against LHB the last few seasons. I probably won't be using Alvarez today, but I could see taking his cheap salary and hoping for a HR.
Outfield
Top Plays
Alex Gordon (KC) - As I just mentioned in Moustakas' blurb, Garcia should struggle today in Camden Yards and against the Royals' LHB in particular. Leading off, Gordon should see a few at bats against Garcia, and he hopefully can make the most of them. Since 2011 Gordon has a .382 wOBA against RHP with a .193 ISO that I think is deflated due to Kauffman Stadium being a killer for LH power and Gordon having a bit of an unlucky HR/FB rate. That shouldn't be an issue today in Camden Yards.
Jacoby Ellsbury (BOS) - I mentioned earlier that the total in the Twins-Red Sox game is very high, and I expect this to be a high scoring game. Look for Jacoby Ellsbury to set the table for the Red Sox with a chance to get on base and score multiple times. He has a .381 wOBA against RHP the last couple of seasons with surprisingly good pop (.202 ISO, although some of this is arguably inflated by 2011's breakout campaign) and of course elite speed (12 steals in 34 games already).
Value Plays
Josh Hamilton (TEX) - Even if you downgrade Hamilton in your rankings due to his awful start to 2013 and terrible plate approach, it's tough not to view him as a value play for this matchup given his price on most sites. Hamilton does have a .257 ISO against RHP since 2011, and Houston is more hitter friendly than Hamilton's home park. Opposing pitcher Lucas Harrell does a good job of keeping the ball on the ground (potentially limiting Hamilton's upside), but he does allow a lot of walks and really hard contact to LHB (23.9 LD%, 12.8 HR/FB%) leading to a .346 wOBA allowed despite his GB skills.
Oswaldo Arcia (MIN) - Twins' rookie Oswaldo Arcia in a very limited sample size has a .330 wOBA with a .196 ISO against RHP. ZIPS has him pegged for a rest of season wOBA of .317 and ISO of .163, which after taking account for splits leaves him with a decent shot to maintain his current numbers against RHP. At a cheap tag, those numbers are enough to have me excited to use him in Fenway Park against John Lackey and his .370 wOBA allowed to LHB.
Nick Markakis (BAL) - Opposing pitcher Jeremy Guthrie has yielded a .347 wOBA to LHB and a very high HR/9 mark of 1.39. Markakis hopefully can take advantage of this today. Last year at home against RHP he posted a .227 ISO and in his career at home versus RHP his ISO is .185, much better than his overall career mark of .157.
John Mayberry (PHI) - Mayberry y is actually quite adept at hitting southpaws, amassing a .362 wOBA and large .248 ISO against them in 328 PA's. Those skills matchup against LHP Patrick Corbin in a positive hitting environment make Mayberry a solid value play.
Garrett Jones (PIT) - Dillon Gee struggles against LHB allowing a .337 wOBA to them the past 3+ seasons. Jones has a really solid batting line against RHP the last couple of years: .277/.339/.510.
Chris Carter (HOU) - The powerful Chris Carter has been absolutely mashing LHP since the start of last year, posting a .254 ISO and .372 wOBA against LHP in that time span. He is matched up today against Jason Vargas who does better in big parks as he allows a lot of fly balls (46.2% to RHB since 2010) which could mean big things for Carter's power game.
Other guys I like depending on price and lineups include Daniel Nava, Aaron Hicks, Chris Parmelee, Angel Pagan and Nate McLouth.
Starting Pitcher
Top Plays
David Price (TB) - Price is the safest SP option today pitching at home where he has a career ERA of 2.77 compared to 3.88 on the road. Price is underpriced on a lot of sites due to his poor start (6.25 ERA), but that is primarily due to poor luck as his xFIP is still solid (3.34).
Cole Hamels (PHI) - At first glance, Hamels in Arizona against a team with some splits specialists seems like a poor play. However, looking at the Arizona lineup, and this is dependent obviously on the lineup they choose, I do see a lot of strikeout potential for Hamels, and I think that outweighs the risk of him potentially giving up a couple homers to guys like Goldschmidt and Ross in the positive hitting environment. Didi Gregorius, Cliff Pennington, Miguel Montero, Paul Goldschmidt, Gerardo Parra, Josh Wilson and Jason Kubel all strike out about 19% or more of the time against LHP. You'll like see Kubel and one of Wilson/Pennington sit, but that would still leave 5 guys and a SP with high K%'s against Hamels who strikes out both lefties and righties about 24% of the time. With all that said, Price is still a little safer due t0 environment and most importantly a lower price tag.
Value Plays
RA Dickey (TOR) - Dickey is off to a bad start, but I like him today at a big discount on most sites pitching in Tampa's pitcher friendly ballpark. The Rays are just mediocre against RHP, and Dickey actually has a strong three year track record, which often gets lost in the shuffle due to his CY Young breakout performance last season.
Ryan Vogelsong (SF) - Vogelsong is almost a must play on multi-SP sites as his price is way too low as a result of his 7.20 ERA, which has to do with a lot of bad luck (18.6 HR/FB%). Pitching at home in an extreme pitcher's park against an Atlanta team without their best LHB (Jason Heyward), Vogelsong looks like a safe bet to provide value.
Dillon Gee (NYM) - I would only consider Gee as a third SP on sites where you need that many. His velocity has been down so far this season, which adds some risk to this play, but he is at home facing a Pirates team that has just a .306 wOBA and a high (second in MLB in the timeframe) 22.9K% against RHP since the beginning of 2012. Also, consider that Neil Walker (.345 wOBA, 19.7 K% against RHP) is out with injury and likely replaced in the lineup by Jordy Mercer (ZIPS projected .285 wOBA and 18.6 K% and that does not take into account splits).
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