Today's featured DFS site is DraftDay. Click HERE for an exclusive first time deposit bonus (use code "fantistics")!
Before we get into today's recommendations, it is important to remind everyone to understand your scoring format and the pricing of the individual players on the site you're playing. These vary from site to site and all daily sites price their players differently, which could make someone a must start on one site but not another. It is also important to double check starting lineups as news often breaks after this column is written. In the space below I will break down the best plays by position and make notes as to which type of formats to utilize players. If you are new to the daily fantasy baseball scene, there are daily fantasy websites which offer one day contests. These contests are mostly salary cap games where you can take any players you want as long as you stay under the cap and meet the positional requirements and all are points-based (not roto). Please feel free to e-mail me at mleone@fantistics.com if you have any further questions regarding daily fantasy baseball.
Weather: A few games have shaky forecasts early on. The worst of the bunch is STL-SF which I'm avoiding altogether. TB-CLE and SEA-MIN warrant watching, while CIN-PIT is improving but should also be monitored.
Danger Zone (60+% chance): SF-STL (Strong Storms), TB-CLE (Scattered T-Storms)
Watch (30+% chance): CIN-PIT (Isolated), SEA-MIN (Scattered T-Storms)
Catchers:
Top Plays:
There aren't any ideal "Top Plays" today at the catcher position because many of the top catchers face the best pitchers going. Wilin Rosario has been so incredible at home against LHP (.491 wOBA in those situations) that he warrants a mention but he's up against Clayton Kershaw who limits RHB's to a .257 wOBA over the last three years. Joe Mauer would be next in line against a RHP (career .400 wOBA against RHP) but weather is a concern and Hisashi Iwakuma has held LHB's to a .275 wOBA over the last three years. As a result you're probably best focusing on value plays.
Strong Values:
Yasmani Grandal (SD) - Grandal is modestly cheap on DraftDay ($6,650) and gets the benefit of facing Chad Jenkins who has yielded a .354 wOBA, 1.31 HR/9, and a 28% LD Rate to LHB's in his brief major league experience. Jenkins is arguably the worst SP throwing on Friday night and Grandal is hitting in the middle of the Padres order. He's off to a bit of a slot start (1-7) but the small sample peripherals look good as he's only chasing 16% of pitches outside the strike zone and he's posting a 57% FB Rate. Grandal has a career .367 wOBA against RHP with a 1.04 EYE. He's priced below his talent level on most sites and has a favorable matchup tonight, making him a nice value.
Chris Iannetta (LAA) - Angels RHB will be a common theme in the Fix today as they get to take on Dallas Keuchel of the Astros who has allowed a .370 wOBA and 1.7 HR/9 to RHB's in his career. Keuchel strikes out less than 12% of RHB's and walks over 11% of them, making normal RHB's have the plate discipline of Albert Pujols against him. You'd be surprised to find out that Iannetta has actually been the Angels best hitter against LHP since 2011 as he's posted a .383 wOBA that includes a .243/.399/.479 line. He has a 20.5% BB% against LHP and a .237 ISO. Priced at just $6,300 on DraftDay he's another tremendous bargain.
John Jaso (OAK) - Jaso is one of our favorites against RHP on OBP friendly scoring sites. DraftDay qualifies and their $5,300 price-tag on Jaso seems really out-of-whack when compared to some of the other catcher options. Jaso has posted a .266/.363/.421 line against RHP since 2011 and will get to face Dylan Axelrod who has some reverse splits (.342 wOBA to RHB's, .316 wOBA to LHB's), but does yield a 8.9% BB% to LHB's along with 1.38 HR/9. Jaso typically hits 2nd in the A's lineup against RHP which should afford him some run-scoring opportunities. Talent wise he's a bit below the two matchups above, but the price offers a nice discount below them as well.
Ramon Hernandez (LAD) - Many like to "punt" the catcher position in daily fantasy and it's hard to find better punt options than a guy playing in Coors Field. Hernandez is priced at $5,200 on DraftDay and he's been neutral in his career against RHP (.325 wOBA) and LHP (.334 wOBA). Jon Garland has been average against RHB's (.313 wOBA) but Hernandez figures to see base-runners on with a couple LHB's in front of him (Garland allows a .344 wOBA to LHB's) and for near the minimum Hernandez is worth the risk. With AJ Ellis battling a possible oblique strain, I'm expecting Hernandez to draw the start.
First Base:
First Base looks like a fun place to spend money on Friday. We have a number of top plays to go through.
Top Plays:
Albert Pujols (LAA) - On Wednesday I noted Pujols declining wOBA's against LHP the last few years and the exaggerated decline this year based on some bad luck on balls in play. So here we are on Friday night with Pujols getting one of the most favorable matchups against a LHP you could ask for in Dallas Keuchel. As a reminder Keuchel has allowed a .370 wOBA and 1.7 HR/9 to RHB's as a big leaguer. Pujols has a 1.00 EYE, 26.2% LD Rate and .188 ISO against LHP this year. Granted the ISO is down from what we'd expect but those indicators don't suggest a .188/.278/.375 line is warranted, which is exactly what Pujols has produced year-to-date against LHP. Of the elite 1B options on DraftDay Pujols appears to be the least expensive ($9,700), making him perhaps the best value of the "Top Play" options.
Adrian Gonzalez (LAD) - Gonzalez gets his first taste of Coors Field this year and it comes against a RHP Jon Garland who is susceptible to left-handed hitters (.344 wOBA allowed over last three years), specifically left-handed line-drive hitters (21% LD Rate allowed). Gonzalez fits the bill as he's hit .315/.381/.534 against RHP since 2011 with a strong 21.7% LD Rate. We know Coors Field inflates overall hitting and we know Garland inflates LHB's so Gonzalez (priced at $9,400) appears to be one of the top plays at the 1B position on Friday night.
Prince Fielder (DET) - Fielder gets to face Miguel Gonzalez who as we've noted before has his share of reverse splits (.328 wOBA to RHB's, .289 wOBA to LHB's). Typically the .289 mark would be a warning sign as that's really strong production, but I'll keep plugging along with Prince against RHP. Fielder has posted a .416 wOBA against RHP since 2011 and in a favorable hitting environment for LH power like Camden Yards, I think Fielder deserves recognition as a top play even against Gonzalez who has been tough on LHB's.
Edwin Encarnacion (TOR) - Encarnacion doesn't get the splits advantage on Friday night but he does get Jason Marquis. Marquis is one of the friendliest daily fantasy starters to attack as he yields a .329 wOBA to RHB's and a .386 wOBA to LHB's. Encarnacion has crushed RHP the last few years posting a .381 wOBA last year in his breakout season and following it up with a .374 wOBA against RHP so far this year. PETCO Park is tough on power but it's a bit more amenable to RH power than LH power. Also for those of you who enjoy the PvB data, Edwin has hammered Marquis in his 18 AB's against him (9-18 3 XBHs, 2 HR's, 2:2 BB:K Ratio). The 8.5 total in San Diego is telling for a typically pitching-friendly environment and Encarnacion is a strong play tonight.
Best Values:
Lance Berkman (TEX) - Berkman has shown some signs of age-related decline the last few years but they've practically all come against LHP (.348 wOBA) as he remains elite against RHP (.403 wOBA since 2011). On Friday night he'll face Wade Davis who has given up a .451 wOBA against LHB's this year as a starter. They've hit .355/.440/.620 against Davis and while his 3-year numbers (.338 wOBA allowed) are a bit more reasonable, much of that performance came out of the pen. The Rangers-Royals also have the highest total on the board currently (9.5) and Berkman hits better at home this year (.375 wOBA at home). At $7,850 on DraftDay he looks like the top value 1B.
Adam LaRoche (WSH) - LaRoche has been scorching hot in May (.340/.422/.628) which follows a pattern that LaRoche has held much of his career. He's a slow starter in April and heats up as the weather warms up. He'll take on Julio Teheran on Friday who really struggles against LH power. Teheran has allowed a .387 wOBA and 1.71 HR/9 in his brief career against LHB's. Much of LaRoche's game is built on power against RHP (.221 ISO) and his $8,450 price-tag is very friendly on DraftDay.
Billy Butler (KC) - Butler is always great against LHP (career .399 wOBA, .317/.398/.543 with a 0.98 EYE) and in Texas you can't ask for a much better hitting environment. Derek Holland is a good SP but he is susceptible to RH power. He's allowed a .329 wOBA to RHB's but a 41% FB Rate has led to him yielding 1.37 HR/9 to RHB's over the last three years and in his career the numbers are a bit exaggerated when at home. He's surrendered 1.69 HR/9 to RHB's for his career in Arlington making Butler a nice play on the road.
Additional Strong Value Plays: Mitch Moreland (TEX), Yonder Alonso (SD), Adam Lind (TOR)
Second Base:
Top Play:
Similar to the catcher position are usual two top plays Dustin Pedroia and Robinson Cano both have difficult matchups. Cano faces a good LH starter in Jon Lester and Cano has been very susceptible to LHP the last few years (.322 wOBA since 2011). Pedroia thus wins the top play designation by default because he's posted a .409 wOBA against LHP since 2011 but his performance against CC Sabathia has been a bit concerning. He's struck out 13 times in 40 AB's and hit just .275/.356/.300 against him. I don't place a ton of emphasis on PvB but in-division large samples I'm willing to pay some attention to. Sabathia has struggled modestly this year so perhaps Pedroia can take advantage of this velocity-starved version of Sabathia. I'll probably opt for value plays at 2B though.
Best Values:
Howie Kendrick (LAA) - Kendrick has posted a .366 wOBA against LHP (.307/.356/.491) since 2011 and he gets to face Dallas Keuchel who we've touched on repeatedly. Kendrick is just $7,500 on DraftDay and seems to be one of the better value plays there.
Jurickson Profar (TEX) - Profar is a very affordable $6,950 on DraftDay and has been impressive against RHP so far hitting .333/.400/.444 in his first 10 PA's. It's a really small sample but Profar was hitting .283/.356/.453 in AAA against RHP. We've highlighted some of Wade Davis' struggles as a starter against lefty bats. The only drawback to Profar is he tends to hit towards the bottom of the order against RHP which limits the upside a bit.
Jedd Gyorko (SD) - I'd prefer Gyorko against LHP (.351 wOBA) than RHP (.331 wOBA) but Chad Jenkins has me looking to any SD bats. Jenkins has allowed a .344 wOBA to RHB's and 1.27 HR/9. If Jenkins gets knocked around early the Jays also have a number of LH long-relief guys that figure to give Gyorko an AB or two against LHP. Gyorko has been just average against righties but in the plus matchup and for just $6,750 on DraftDay I think he's a nice bargain.
Skip Schumaker (LAD) - With Matt Kemp on the DL I'm expecting Skip Schumaker to get a start in the OF against RHP. Schumaker is an under-the-radar 2B option as he's hit .302/.358/.399 with a 0.73 EYE in his career against RHP (.335 wOBA). Lineup positioning will ultimately dictate how much value he has but for a mere $4,250 on DraftDay, Schumaker could be one of the better bargains at the 2B position.
Shortstop:
With Troy Tulowitzki facing Clayton Kershaw I don't think there's a worthwhile top play option at SS today.
Best Values:
Maicer Izturis (TOR) - Izturis qualifies for our "not a very good hitter, but team should score runs" sweepstakes here at the SS position. Izturis has hit .270/.333/.385 in his career against RHP which is good for a .317 wOBA. Jason Marquis has allowed a .386 wOBA to LHB's over the last three years and Izturis hit SIXTH in the Blue Jays lineup last night. He's just $4,250 on DraftDay and with a lack of great options at the position, he may just be the best value on the board.
Erick Aybar (LAA) - Aybar hits leadoff for the Angels and has pretty neutral splits in his career. He's not a particularly adept hitter so you want to make sure you're price-shopping and if you're playing on a site that limits the amount of players from one team you can use Aybar wouldn't seem to be the best play. His .309 wOBA against LHP is below average but he's a good bet to score runs against Dallas Keuchel and a horrific Astros pitching staff as long as he's in the leadoff spot.
Alcides Escobar (KC) -I'm not enthused with the SS position as a whole so I'm leaning on players batting in favorable positions in projected high-scoring tilts. Escobar fits the bill as he typically hits 2nd against LHP and the Royals-Rangers has a 9.5 total. Escobar, like Aybar, isn't a great hitter (career .296 wOBA vs. LHP) but he does hit in front of a few great hitters (Gordon, Butler) which could help his run-scoring potential. At $6,500 on DraftDay he's a fine alternative to Aybar if you're stacking Angels in other spots.
Everth Cabrera (SD) - If funds are available I think Cabrera is probably the best SS option to spend on. My biggest challenge is he's way overpriced because he's been running like a mad-man in May (12-14 in SB attempts) and its unnecessarily inflating his fantasy production. He's hitting just .252/.328/.383 in May and is a career .244/.326/.338 hitter. He's not better than any of the other guys above him as a hitter but any time he gets on base he's turning it into the equivalent of a triple. Chad Jenkins should allow opportunities to get on-base even with Cabrera's questionable OBP skills and Arencibia has caught just 5 of 26 base-stealers running on him. Cabrera is over-priced throughout the industry but with SS being a tough position today I understand if you have funds targeting him.
Ed Lucas (MIA) - He's not available in any player pools I've scanned so far and yes he hits LHP better than RHP, but damn't he's one of my closest friends. While you can't take him in DFS tonight, root him on as he makes his 1st professional start after 10 years in the minors.
Third Base:
Top Play:
Miguel Cabrera (DET) - We talked about Miguel Gonzalez's reverse splits which actually set up quite well for Cabrera. Cabrera is the Tigers best hitter against RHP over the last three years with a .438 wOBA and Gonzalez allows 1.7 HR/9 to RHB's. As always the question with Cabrera is price and on our featured site DraftDay his $14,050 price makes him pretty difficult to fit in. If you can afford him he's a very nice play but I'd prefer to spend on some other elite hitters with similarly great matchups that are 1-2k cheaper.
Additional Top Plays to consider: Adrian Beltre (TEX)
Best Values:
Alberto Callaspo (LAA) - Callaspo is a switch-hitter who has been better against LHP than RHP in his career. Since 2011 he's hit .298/.350/.419 against lefties which is good for a .339 wOBA. We know Dallas Keuchel struggles against righties (.370 wOBA allowed) and Callaspo is priced at just $6,100 on DraftDay.
Chase Headley (SD) - Headley has quietly been a righty masher over the last few years, posting a .283/.385/.452 line against RHP since 2011. His .366 wOBA should be able to exploit Chad Jenkins struggles against LHB's (.354 wOBA allowed, 28% LD rate, 1.31 HR/9). On many sites he's my favorite value play of the day but DraftDay has him priced appropriately at $8,550. It's still a fine value, but other sites offer a bit more of a discount.
Kyle Seager (SEA) - Seager hits 3rd in the Mariners lineup and gets to face Mike Pelfrey who has allowed lefties to hit .343/.385/.578 against him this year. Seager has been solid in his career against RHP especially when he escapes his tough home park. On the road against RHP he's hit .307/.350/.525 in his career which is good for a .375 wOBA. He's one of the sneakier value plays at the 3B position on Friday night.
Outfield:
Top Plays:
Mike Trout (LAA) - By now I'm sure you've guessed that Trout qualifies as a top play. I've noted over the last week how Trout's discrepancy between his performance against RHP (.401) and LHP (.360) in his career is almost entirely BABIP driven (.377 vs. RHP, .287 vs. LHP). As a result I feel pretty confident Trout's .400+ wOBA skills are still in-tact when he faces LHP. Dallas Keuchel is terrible and Trout will take advantage. He's the hitter I want most in my lineups on Friday night.
Ryan Braun (MIL) - Braun is just so good against LHP that I almost don't care who the LHP is. Cole Hamels has been strong against RHB's over the last few years (.290 wOBA) but he has been homer-prone, yielding 1.07 HR/9. Braun has hit .347/.418/.660 in his career against lefties and Citizens Bank Ballpark is a favorable environment for power. If you can find Braun at a discounted price because of the tough opposing starter, I think he remains a strong top play.
Bryce Harper (WSH) - Harper is expected to return to the lineup on Friday night and it will be a much needed boost for the Nationals. There are concerns about Harper's health and his timing but that makes him all the more appealing as a contrarian tournament play. He'll face Julio Teheran who allows 1.52 HR/9 on his way to a .387 wOBA against lefties. Bryce is herculean against RHP, posting a career .297/.378/.551 line against RHP (.396 wOBA). If he's back in the lineup tonight he's a good guy to get back in yours.
Jose Bautista (TOR) - All the same things I said about Edwin Encarnacion apply to Jose Bautista, only he's even better. Bautista has posted .400+ wOBA's against RHP in every calendar year since 2010.
Additional Top Plays to Spend on: Mark Trumbo (LAA), Yoenis Cespedes (OAK), Coco Crisp (OAK)
Best Values:
Carl Crawford/Andre Ethier (LAD) - Both players are priced reasonably ($8,000 - Crawford, $6,900 - Ethier) on DraftDay and it appears across the industry. Ethier is the better pure hitter against RHP (.381 wOBA since 2011, Crawford - .328) but Crawford's legs and his superior positioning in the lineup help him make up much of that difference in fantasy production. Where they are priced the same I prefer Crawford, but on most sites Ethier comes at a slightly larger discount and thus would be my preferred value.
David Murphy (TEX) - Below average RHP in Texas = David Murphy value play. I'm still working on the macro to just write the blurb itself but Murphy is a wonderful play against weak RHP in Texas. Against any and all RHP in Texas he's hit .298/.362/.524 in his career. He's been hitting in the #2 spot with Ian Kinsler out which boosts his fantasy value considerably and at DraftDay he's just $6,700. STEAL.
Colby Rasmus (TOR) - Just to review Jason Marquis allows a .386 wOBA to LHB's. He also strikes out just under 12% of the LHB's he's faced over the last three years. Colby Rasmus is an ordinary LHB against RHP (.333 wOBA) but his big problem is contact. He strikes out in 23.6% of his PA's against RHP. Eliminate the contact issues and let the .198 ISO shine through and you have a nice value play.
Carlos Quentin (SD) - I always think of Quentin as a lefty-masher but he's posted an impressive .354 wOBA against RHP since 2011, which is boosted by a gaudy .241 ISO. We've discussed Chad Jenkins struggles against all types of hitting and I expect if Quentin's in the lineup he'll be a strong value play on a site like DraftDay where he's priced at $7,400.
Other Potential Value Plays: Jonny Gomes (BOS), Denard Span (WSH), Roger Bernadina (WSH), Michael Saunders (SEA), Matt Joyce (TB), Lorenzo Cain (KC), Jeff Francoeur (KC), Melky Cabrera (TOR), Alejandro de Aza (CHW)
Under-priced Star OF's to Target: Nelson Cruz (TEX), Josh Hamilton (LAA), Andrew McCutchen (PIT)
Starting Pitchers:
Best Values:
Shaun Marcum (NYM) - Marcum paid off in a big way for the Fix in his last outing as we called him a nice boom or bust play and he rewarded us with a 12 strikeout performance against the Braves. Tonight he'll take on a Marlins offense that ranks 30th in wOBA against RHP with a .264 mark and really lacks power. Marcum's biggest problem is HR's as he's allowed 1.20 HR/9 for his career. When you remove that threat from the Marlins, Marcum becomes a much safer play. He's one of the premier values across the industry tonight and at just $9,650 on DraftDay I think he's the best value SP play of the day.
Yovani Gallardo (MIL) - Gallardo has been amongst the most disappointing fantasy starters of the season and as a result his price has come way down on most sites. He gets a favorable matchup on Friday night against a Phillies offense that ranks 29th in wOBA against RHP. The lineup is missing Chase Utley one of their biggest threats against RHP and without him the offense is allergic to drawing walks which is one of Gallardo's bigger problems. At $10,600 on DraftDay he's one of the SP's I'll consider for my two slots.
Johnny Cueto (CIN) - The Pirates offense is slowly slipping down the ranks against RHP as they've fallen all the way to 19th in wOBA with a .308 mark. Their offense is better than in years past but they strike out 22.2% of the time against righties and their best hitter, Andrew McCutchen, is far more effective against LHP than RHP. Cueto has made 11 starts against the Pirates over the last three years and he has a 1.81 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and has struck out 7.7 batters per nine. He's a bit pricier than the other options but for $12,850 on DraftDay he still feels like a great bargain.
Bartolo Colon (OAK) - Big Fat Zeroes. That's what Bartolo Colon posted in his last start as he shutout the Astros over 7 innings. Colon gets to face a White Sox offense that ranks 27th in wOBA against RHP with a .295 mark. They strike out in almost 22% of their PA's against RHP and Colon gets to face them in the spacious confines of the Coliseum. We've talked about how RH the White Sox lineup is and that's great news for Colon. He's allowed a .355 wOBA to LHB's over the last three years but just a .263 wOBA against righties. This is the perfect team for Colon to throw well against as they have 6 right-handed regulars and most of their best hitters (Rios, Konerko) hit from the right side.
Derek Holland (TEX) - This one is very price dependent. I wrote up a few KC hitters who traditionally mash LHP and they're a pretty solid offense against lefties (14th in wOBA - .313), but if you can find the right price on Holland I think he's a solid play. KC was forced to play deep into the night in a suspended game that ended at 3:14 AM central time. What kind of effect that has on a team that also had to travel from St. Louis to Texas I don't know but Holland is the 2nd biggest favorite of the night (-220) and he's been tremendous at home this year (2.60 ERA). My one big concern with Holland's upside is that the Royals don't strike out a lot against LHP (16.5%) which is why I want to make sure to be price conscious when using him tonight.
Additional SP Notes:
I see some value in Jon Lester given the Yankees rank 23rd in wOBA against LHP, but I'm a bit hesitant to deploy him heavily because of the return of Kevin Youkilis and Mark Teixeira. Even if Youk and Tex aren't themselves they're replacing Lyle Overbay and for much of the season Jayson Nix/Chris Nelson against LHP. The 23rd ranking probably isn't representative of the lineup that's in there tonight. I prefer Cole Hamels to Lester who has a nice price and while he has a tough RH MIL lineup Hamels has held RHB's to a .290 wOBA over the last three years compared to .288 for LHB's. His change-up is a neutralizer against the righties and it's his best pitch.
The Studs:
We have plenty of them going tonight but all of them have some warts to deal with. Shelby Miller and Matt Cain look like they're heading for a rainout in STL. Clayton Kershaw is in Coors Field against a Rockies offense that can really hit LHP. At home I wouldn't be opposed to paying up for Clayton but it's hard to pay a Dodger Stadium price on Kershaw when he's in Coors Field. Max Scherzer takes on an Orioles offense that is tremendous at home and given Scherzer's issues with HR's I don't think he's quite worth the risk outside of big tournament play. Matt Moore gets an Indians offense that ranks #1 in wOBA against LHP with a .354 mark and they've been crushing good pitching all year. He's another high priced starter that is a high risk-high reward play. Hisashi Iwakuma has the best matchup of the bunch and is probably the guy I'd be most inclined to use next after this stud.
Stephen Strasburg (WSH) - Strasburg has a tough history against ATL, well tough for him, as he's gone 3-3 with a 4.17 ERA, 1.33 WHIP over the last three years. He has struck out 44 in 36 2/3 IP though and that Braves offense strikes out in nearly 25% of their PA's against RHP. I know many hitters in the ATL lineup have good PvB on Strasburg and they rank 9th in wOBA, but I think Strasburg really throws well tonight. If I'm inclined to pay up for SP on Friday, Strasburg is my guy.
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