Leonys Martin- TEX- Hot- Martin had missed two games due to neck stiffness. He was healthy yesterday but didn't start because the Tigers put a lefty on the mound. Martin was pressed into service when Daniel Robertson was hurt in an outfield collision. Martin showed he was ready to come back by going 2-for-4. He is now hitting .288 on the year but expect some negative regression to the mean since he has enjoyed a .381 BABIP so far.
Jered Weaver- LAA- Stats- Normally, I'd look at a pitcher with a 2.85 ERA and 4.07 FIP and figure that he is due for some negative regression to the mean. However, Weaver has consistently posted ERAs lower than his FIPs. The last time that didn't happen was back in 2008. Weaver's 6.78 K/9 is right in line with what he has posted the past two seasons. His BB/9 of 2.58 is slightly higher than the marks he has had in the previous 4 seasons which varied from 2.14 to 2.17. Weaver's first 4 starts, when he walked 10 in 24.2 IP are the culprits for that stat and it has been dropping. Weaver is a pitcher who makes a habit of outperforming his peripherals and there isn't any reason to think he won't keep doing that.
Mike Moustakas- KC- Drop Value- Moustakas was sent to AAA Omaha to try and cure what has given him a .152 average in 40 games this year. There really isn't anything that some positive regression to the mean wouldn't fix. His BABIP is at .155. Moustakas has actually had his Batting EYE improve from .39 to .46. His ISO has gone up from .131 in 2013 to .168 this year. The odds are that Moustakas will enjoy better luck at AAA and make his way back to the Royals.
Aaron Hicks- MIN- Hot- Some regression to the mean seems to be in progress for Hicks. As of May 11th his average was at .160 and his BABIP at .222 in 99 PAs. Since then he has gone 7-for-21 with a BABIP of .412. There is still more room for regression as his BABIP is only at .268. Hicks also now has a Batting EYE of .68. He has definite sleeper potential.
Jon Lester- BOS- Cold- Lester had overperformed early this season and it may be catching up with him. He had a K/9 of 10.83 heading into yesterday's start that didn't seem sustainable, given his history. He only struck out 3 in 6.1 IP, while walking 2. Lester allowed 7 runs on 10 hits. It bumped his ERA to 3.36 from 2.67 and his FIP went from 2.09 to 2,57. Lester is throwing far fewer changeups and more cutters than he has in the past. His velocity has dropped a little across the board and while he is throwing fewer pitches in the zone, his swinging strike percentage is up. It all seems to add up to a statistical anomaly that should sort itself out. After yesterday Lester can't probably be sold as high as he was but there is a good chance he has peaked.
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