Gregory Polanco- Gregory Polanco is becoming one of the poster boys in 2014 for my "shiny new toy syndrome". In every league, owners overvalue prospects to the determent of older, more proven assets. Polanco was widely thought of as a "can't miss" prospect, and he still has that potential. The problem is that his 2014 season has not produced the major league statistics anticipated by many. There have been two fairly large-scale issues with Polanco. The first is that he has been unable to produce at even a reasonable rate against left handed pitching. He is striking out 31.1% of the time versus lefties while walking only 6.7% of the time. This is double the rate of strikeouts and half the rate of walks as against right handed pitching. Essentially, Polanco can't be trusted to play against left handed starters so he has a big hole for weekly lineup sets. In daily play, if you can find a platoon partner for Polanco, it would help. The second problem is that Polanco is flashing no power to speak of at this point of the season. He has a .077 ISO and a 49.1% Ground Ball Rate. Even against right-handed pitching, Polanco is managing a 48.8% Ground Ball Rate so the lack of power is not specific to match-up. Right now, Polanco isn't offering power or average, and while he has some speed, he does not steal enough bases to be a consistent threat on the base paths. In dynasty and keeper formats, there are fewer young players with more potential, but in re-draft formats, it is getting close to the point of dropping Polanco for a player who contributes more consistently to your weekly score.
Jay Bruce- Jay Bruce's age 27 season has not been kind thus far to the slugging outfielder. Bruce is on pace for his worst season since 2009. The always free-swinging Bruce is striking out a career high 27.1% of the time in 2014 after posting a career high strike out rate in 2013 of 26.5%. If Bruce maintains this strike out rate, it will be third year in a row his K Rate increased. In the past, Bruce has been able to mask issues with his strikeouts by driving the ball out of the park. The past three seasons, Bruce has hit at least 30 home runs, and the two seasons prior in managed 25 and 22 respectively. At this point, we can't be sure that Bruce will eclipse the 20 home run mark. The biggest difference besides the increasing strikeout tendency is that Bruce is putting the ball on the ground more often this year than he has in any of the last 5 seasons. His 44.8% Ground Ball Rate is the highest of that time period while his 33.5% Fly Ball Rate is the lowest of that period. On top of that, his HR/FB Rate of 14.7% is a career low. For whatever reason, Bruce is making less contact and less solid contact this season. We are beginning to get to the point where even wholesale regression to his three-year mean on contact rates might not save Bruce's year end totals. If you can deal with low batting average and greatly reduced power, Bruce can still be kept on rosters. If you can get someone to pay you for his name value on the idea that he might have a miraculous second half, you should probably get that deal done.
Carlos Gonzalez- It has been a frustrating season for CarGo owners. The Colorado outfielder has battled injuries and ineffectiveness all season. Normally a lock 20/20 contributor to a fantasy team, Gonzalez has seen a decrease in both power and speed this season. While CarGo's Ground Ball Rate is high at 48.2%, it is not abnormal for him to carry high rates in this category. He was around the same percentage in 2011 and 2012 (48.4% and 48.9% respectively), and in both seasons, Gonzalez managed 20+ home runs. This season has been concerning less because of a traditionally high percentage of grounders than the infrequency of fly balls leaving the yard. His 15% HR/FB is the lowest since 2008, which is concerning. The hope is that because Gonzalez, due to injury, has only managed 238 plate appearances that this is still a bit of a small sample size issue more than anything. If his HR/FB can regress closer to his 20% average, he should see his power pick back up over the course of the next 8 weeks. His speed, however, is more problematic. He has only attempted 2 steals in all of 2014. He is not running at a rate to accumulate even 10 steals over the course of the season, never mind the traditional 20. Overall, Gonzalez could normalize a bit over the second half, but it is highly unlikely that fantasy owners will get what they paid for on draft day. Once again, you could try to sell Gonzalez on name value, but its unlikely that anyone will pay a premium at this point. I'm advising a hold on CarGo, and hopefully, he regresses enough to help owners win leagues in August and September.
Denard Span- Someone will have to explain to me why Denard Span is only owned in 21% of leagues. With a .309 BABIP, Span's .279 average seems very sustainable, and it is supported by his three year sample. He is on pace to score around 90 runs and to accumulate over 20 steals as he is stealing bases with a 88.9% success rate. You have a player who will contribute positively in batting average, steals and runs, but he is only owned in 1/5 of the leagues? This seems like owners using past bias to make decisions when it comes to Span. There is absolutely no reason for him not to be owned in a significantly higher percentage of standard formats. If you are in need of an outfielder, I would check the wire, and if Span is out there, go ahead and make the move. There are a lot worse things than steady consistent production in three categories.
Rickie Weeks- Rickie Weeks has become a part time player for the Brewers this season, and as expected, his fantasy value has taken a large hit from his days as a 20/10 threat. Weeks is a player that may be discussed at the trade deadline as the Brewers have a natural replacement with Scooter Gennett, but he should probably be left on fantasy waiver wires even if he finds a situation with more playing time. His 61.6% Ground Ball Rate is ridiculously high even for a player who has traditionally lived in the 45-50% range for the last five years. His 12% HR/FB is the lowest since 2008 and marks the 5th consecutive season that this rate has been in decline. Additionally, Weeks is no longer an effective stolen base threat. All said and told, Weeks may find a new home next week, but as stated, his home in most fantasy leagues is well placed amongst free agents.
Today's National League Player Blog is brought to you by Nicholas Rossoletti. You can follow Nicholas on Twitter @NRoss56.
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