Perspective is not in demand these days. In fact, it's mostly looked down upon. Life doesn't make room for the slow developing nature that is a hallmark of perspective. Why write something that has the audacity to present, investigate, and conclude with a well-thought opinion? Yes, you win. It's not found on Twitter ... and, I thank the heavens for that!
Perspective and the level-headed assessment that goes with it, is critical to fantasy success over the long haul. Any random season offers the outlier ... the year where history didn't matter, the season where the unrepeatable happened, and the campaign where the unthinkable kept occurring. There's a moonshot player every year, but the exceptions don't disprove the rule.
Perspective, and an understanding of probability, gives you an edge on many of the 'here today's, gone tomorrow's' out there. For one, the emotion surrounding a player is tossed aside. It also allows you to pull back and contemplate what we're really looking at with each and every player in fantasy baseball. Any thorough delving, provides the truism that very, very few players develop in a truly linear pattern. There are up and down's, back and forth's, and false starts, throughout.
With each passing fantasy season, perspective seems to slowly fade into the dark alley. Believe me, I host a fantasy sports radio show! Over a half-decade of taking calls from fantasy diehards, I know how recency bias (i.e., What did you do last year???) permeates so many pre-season assumptions.
Heck, some are set to call a 22-year old a bust (Bryce Harper). Others think that someone who has K'd 220 times in 196 minor league games is pre-ordained for immediate greatness (Kris Bryant). Oh, and don't forget to recall the ever-silly game of 'I know he just came back from major arm surgery, but he's going to be exactly the same pitcher we saw before he got hurt' ... I'm looking at you, Matt Harvey.
So, who's getting the Perspective Treatment today? Jason Heyward. If he doesn't come through this season, a lot of fantasy owners won't give him another shot. He'll go the way of a baseball dodo ... aka, Desmond Jennings.
Let's take a look ...
Heyward smoked a home run in his first-ever big league at-bat on Opening Day 2010 and it was the start of a charmed season. That first go-around (at the age of 20) ended up with Heyward making the All-Star game, garnering MVP votes, and finishing 2nd in ROY-voting. At that point, you couldn't talk a fantasy player out of drafting Heyward in the first three rounds of 2011 drafts.
2011 was a bust with injuries, plus massive ineffectiveness even when he played. All you need to know is that his OPS barely cleared .700 and he ended up tied with Jamey Carroll (!) in that category.
2012 was his strongest season. Heyward hit a career-best 27 homers with a career-best 82 RBIs, alongside a career-best 92 runs scored. Back on-board!
But, since then, he's just been ... well ... OK. The last two years have seen just 253 games of action (appendectomy and broken jaw). And, when on the field, Heyward has been jerked all around the lineup (124 games at the top of the order, 62 games batting #2, and 54 games at the 5-spot). Each location brings its' own requirements and Heyward has tried to conform to expectations at each stop. That's led to some awful slugging numbers (a cumulative .401). It's led to one season with two stolen bases and then one season with 20 steals. And, Heyward has admitted that when he was located at the top of the lineup, he tried to take pitches, draw walks, and just put the ball in play. Believe me, he's not a guy who should 'just try to put the ball in play.'
Amazingly, he still ranked among the top 35 outfielders in all of fantasy baseball last season. Think about it ... a mostly terrible effort and because of the fact that he does a little-bit-of-everything, Heyward crossed the finish line as an OF3. Just a little bit of gain in all five categories and he's into the top 20. A jump in HRs and RBIs lifts him near the top 10 at the position. And, let's be honest, even the most anti-Heyward minds out there would cave to the idea that he can leap near 20 homers with 80 RBIs and double-digit stolen bases.
Talent-wise, it's absolutely there. To further his case, he's escaped the jerk-around in Atlanta and he's landed in a spot where baseball players go to thrive.
Heading into his walk-year, the Braves made a pre-emptive strike and sent Heyward (along with a guy I consider to be a fantasy must-have, Jordan Walden) to St. Louis for young pitching that they would have under control.
Now, understand, that entering camp Heyward still doesn't have a set spot in the lineup. The 'Birds have said he won't hit lead-off and that's great news. But, is he at two, three, or five? I'm banking on three.
The team has been more than open about what they want Heyward to do. He's not there to take pitches, set the table, get the runner over, or any of those other death nails to fantasy glory. Instead, the team brass has been more than assertive in their belief that Heyward will be a run producer, a guy they're counting on for doubles, and a guy that they see as their 2nd-best run producer after Matt Holliday. That's what they want. And, with this franchise, history has usually shown they get what they want from guys like Heyward.
St. Louis has always been able to find talented hitters via trades and squeeze the best juice out of them. Over the course of more than a decade, they have brought in plenty of soon-to-be free agents. Not only have these players succeeded in their walk year, but they've also stuck around for a new contract. Here's the run-down ... Jim Edmonds, Scott Rolen, Mark McGwire, Matt Holliday. And, don't forget that they have quite a run of grabbing good players coming off of down seasons ... Troy Glaus, Lance Berkman, Carlos Beltran ... and receiving a huge return on a low investment. In other words, they know how to find hitters that fit a certain profile. Heyward is their latest 'scout grab' and I'm not betting against their baseball minds here.
Heyward's approach over the course of his first five seasons has remained consistent. He's started to make more contact (over 80% the past two seasons). His batted ball rates have all stayed consistent over the years (high teens on line drives, mid-40s on grounders, and mid-30s on fly balls). Even a slight return to his usual HR/FB rates, would get him knocking on the door of 20 this season. 2014 was the first time he'd been under 13% in that category and he was well under it, at 6.5%. I expect him to swing more often and to swing harder with his new team. His walk rate will dip from last season and his K-rate will go up. He's going to be more aggressive with a spot in the heart of the Cardinal lineup. It's totally different from what Atlanta was hoping he'd do last year.
Heyward is a classic case of projecting a career of stats based off of one season. His progress has gone hot and cold, just like, well, many players in their early 20s. Many fantasy players would call Heyward a disappointing asset to this point, but it's worth noting that he isn't even 26, yet. And, as he arrives on the edge of free agency, Heyward has a chance to cash in on a contract that could pay him $20-million per year. Granted, there is a disconnect between fantasy value and real life value (we don't give a rip about Heyward's Gold Glove defense, for one), but I think that this will be the year we follow the thoughts of real life GMs ... Heyward is on the cusp of becoming a big-time asset.
2015 Prediction - .264/.340/.475, 19 HRs, 84 RBI, 90 R, 10 SB
You can hear Kyle each weeknight on 'The SiriusXM Fantasy Drive' from 7-10 ET, Sirius 210, XM 87.
Draft Advisor: bring our winning strategy (Serpentine / Auction) to your draft. Our player rankings adjust as players are selected, adhering to the changing dynamics of your draft. After a player is selected/drafted, the software will display/suggest the best players remaining. Purchase Today!
