Preseason Prep-February 18, 2015

Will the real Padres please stand up? Every year at least one team goes out and spends big and is deemed the winner of the off-season and a pre-season favorite to win their division. I wouldn't go as far as to say the Padres are the favorite to win their division, because Los Angeles clearly is the favorite, but the Padres have made a number of significant moves this off-season.

Kemp's Redemption Matt Kemp's unhappiness with being moved out of centerfield, was well published last season. Although Kemp struggled out of the gate offensively and defensively, he put together a very nice bounce back season in 2014. He finished with a .287/25/89 slash line and even added in 8 SB for good measure.

The move to San Diego is not a positive one for Kemp, but it may not be as bad as some people are going to make it out to be. If Kemp can stay healthy, he should see an increase in plate appearances, because he will no longer be part of a four-man OF rotation. Kemp is also going to get his HR's, as evidenced by his batted ball distance of 405 ft. last year. The lineup around Kemp is not bad, and the Padres should be able to score runs this year. Once again, Kemp's value is dependent upon his health. If he can stay healthy he is going to be a productive fantasy player. Just don't pay for the .309/17/54 second half that many will be doing on draft day.

Third Year a Charm for Wil Myers? Wil Myers broke out in his first taste of the major leagues in 2013 and many expected big things out of Myers in 2014, but two things happened to him that prevented a big breakout. First, Myers was slowed by a wrist injury, which can completely sap a hitter's power and overall effectiveness. Second, Myers was slow to adjust to the league like many second year players are. In his initial call-up, Myers was challenged in with fastballs and he made them pay. The league adjusted by feeding him more off-speed pitches and staying on the outer half. If Myers has a flaw, it is that he strides towards third and opens his hips early. This made Myers a dead pull hitter in 2014, as opposed to staying closed and driving the ball to all fields like he did in 2013. Keep an eye on Myers in the pre-season to make sure the wrist is healthy and if he is staying through the ball. He has the talent to breakout, but a lot of things have to go right for Myers to have a big year in 2015.

Justin Upton's Contract Year One of the over looked fantasy strategy's is to identify the players who are on a contract year. Players are human, believe it or not. The financial side of baseball ways heavy on guys in contract years, they are naturally going to be in better shape, take extra swings, and to be focused more often on the goal ahead, which is to have a great year and get paid. Upton enjoyed a very fine 2014 season in which he slashed .270/27/92. The move to San Diego is going to hurt his HR totals, because PETCO Park limits RH power, but if anyone can neutralize that, it would be Upton and his 410ft average on homeruns (7th overall). Upton should also see an increase in runs scored being in the middle of a much-improved Padres lineup. Upton is only 27 years old and entering the prime years for hitters (27-29), so a monster year is not out of the question for Upton, even with the move to San Diego. There is a decent chance that Upton runs more now that he is out of Atlanta and wanting to prove his overall value for a monster contract. Upton can be maddening to own during the season because of his extreme ups and downs, but he is fairly consistent with his yearly floor of .270/25/80

Padres Pitching -Andrew Cashner, Tyson Ross, James Shields, and Ian Kennedy The Padres loaded up on RH hitters and vastly improved their offense, but the real question is going to be what type of pitching will they have? Quietly the Padres have put together a very solid pitching staff. It is not getting the same type of publicity that their revamped offense is getting. They have four quality major league pitchers in Andrew Cashner, Tyson Ross, James Shields, and Ian Kennedy.

Andrew Cashner Andrew Cashner is the ace, but has yet to fully develop into the ace that we would all like to see. Cashner has great stuff; mid-nineties fastball, hard slider, average curve, and an above average change-up. Cashner also has good control and limits base-runners, but hasn't truly learned how to finish hitters via the strikeout. His career strikeout rate of 7.27/9 leaves much to be desired, especially with his raw stuff. Cashner is a smart pitcher that knows how to make adjustments and has the potential to put together an ace-like season. Cashner's pre-season ADP has been 13th round, which makes him a perfect high-upside player that could be a steal if he stays healthy and improves upon his strikeout rates.

Tyson Ross There was a lot to like about Ross in 2014. He threw 195.2 innings, 2.81 ERA, 8.97 K/9, and a 57% GB rate. All of those numbers were excellent and contributed to his breakout 2014 season. Ross continues to get overlooked on draft day (11th Round ADP) despite his stellar numbers. Ross primarily uses two pitches, his two-seamer to get ground balls and his slider, which has a 23% swinging strike rate (excellent). We should be concerned with his slider usage, which was over 40% last year. This is a warning sign for an injury waiting to happen. In deeper leagues take this into consideration, but in shallow leagues feel free to ride him until his shoulder gives out.

James Shields James Shields recently signed a 4 YR/$75M deal with the San Diego Padres. PETCO Park is a pitching haven and should benefit an aging Shields. Shields has thrown a ton of pitches and innings over the past eight years. He has topped over 200 innings for eight straight years, but with all the wear and tear, Shields average FB velocity has remained constant at 92mph. However, Shields strikeout rate has declined over the past three years (7.14 K/9 career low in 2014). The good news is that even though his strikeouts have declined, so has his walks per nine to a career low 1.7 in 2014. You can peg Shields for 195 innings, 3.50 ERA, and 175 strikeouts with the shift to the National League.

Ian Kennedy Ian Kennedy was the beneficiary of moving from a hitter friendly park in Arizona to the pitcher friendly PETCO Park in 2014. Kennedy also benefited from an increase in velocity of 1.5 mph, which at age 29 is impressive. It remains to be seen if he will maintain this increase in velocity into his age 30 season, which is when pitchers velocity typically trends downward. Kennedy posted a 3.63 ERA over 201 innings and managed 207 strikeouts. Don't forget about Kennedy on draft day, but don't pay for his 2014 numbers. Expect numbers in the ballpark of a 10 W, 3.80 ERA, and 170 K's. Anything beyond those numbers would be a bonus.

Around the League Ken Giles (RP-PHI) Jonathan Papelbon is the closer for now in Philadelphia, but it seems that he is likely to be moved at some point this season. In the waiting, is a youngster by the name of Ken Giles. Ken Giles boasts a hard FB (97mph) and hard slider (87mph). Giles managed to strikeout 38.6% of batters that he faced in 2014. Giles peripherals support his monstrous 2014 season (1.18 ERA, 12.61 K/9, and 2.17 BB/9). Papelbon is being drafted 137th and Giles 245th in NFBC drafts. Giles is a must own regardless of being a hand-cuff or not.

Joc Pederson (OF-LAD) Joc Pederson is the ultra-talented prospect for the Dodgers that pushed Matt Kemp out of town. The Dodgers still have the same conundrum they did a year ago, four outlfielders (Crawford, Puig, Either, and Pederson), plus the LHP masher Andy Van Slyke to play three OF spots. At this point it seems like the Dodgers are going to ease their top prospect into action among a four-man rotation. This might limit his value initially, but he is always a Crawford injury away from a full time-gig. Pederson offers the coveted power/speed combo that many fantasy owners love. Pederson posted a 30/30 season at Triple-A, but that was in the very hitter friendly Pacific Coast League. It is not a reach to project Pederson with a 20/20 season, albeit with a low batting average for upcoming 2015 season.

Dalton Pompey (OF-TOR) Dalton Pompey is the favorite to win the final OF spot in Toronto. Pompey may be unknown to some, but his meteoric rise through the Jays farm system last year should make him a very interesting fantasy option in 2015. Pompey went all the way from rookie ball to the big leagues in one year. Pompey has the potential to go 10/20 in first extended look at the major league level. The risk here is high, but the reward could be as equally high. He is one to keep an eye on during Spring Training.

John Jaso (C-TB) John Jaso is going 285th overall in NFBC drafts. I find this to be interesting because Jaso is primarily going to be a DH with C eligibility. Jaso hit .264/9/40 in 344 PA. The Rays are going to use Jaso properly, meaning he is going to hit mostly against RHP, which he crushes to the tune of a .349 wOBA. Catching this year is hideous and you could do worse than Jaso as your second catcher or primary catcher in leagues in which you can utilize his strengths such as crushing RHP and .OBP leagues.

Barry Zito (SP-OAK) The Athletics have signed Barry Zito to a minor league contract with an invitation to Spring Training. Zito is no spring chicken (37 yrs. old) and he posted a 5.74 over 133 innings with the Giants in 2013. The soft tossing left-hander is a nice story for the Athletics, but has zero fantasy value.

Masahiro Tanaka (SP-NYY) Masahiro Tanaka is due to arrive in Spring Training this week and all eyes are going to be on him, as he is recovering from a partially-torn ulnar collateral ligament. He has not had any setbacks during the off-season. Tanaka was electric when on the mound last year (2.77 ERA, 9.31 K/9, 1.70 BB/9). The biggest concern is whether he is truly healthy or not. The UCL is very delicate and he will be one pitch away from Tommy John surgery all year long. At this point Tanaka is a true gamble. He is being drafted in the 13th RD, but has top 5 potential. Take the plunge if you dare choose.

Carlos Martinez (P-STL) The Cardinals are still discussing the workload for Carlos Martinez for 2015. While he is considered the favorite to win the 5th spot in the rotation, he has never thrown over 108 innings in a season. Martinez is a two-pitch pitcher, triple digit FB and average CV. He needs to develop a change-up to combat LHH, which have a career .355 wOBA against him. Martinez can be drafted as a late-round flier with upside, but do not expect much out of Martinez until he figures out how to get LHH out.

Justin Verlander (SP-DET) Verlander has reportedly put on 20lbs of muscle this off-season. He was not able to workout last off-season due to core muscle surgery. Verlander threw a bullpen on Tuesday and reports are that he looked good. There is no way around it, Verlander had a terrible 2014 and is going 242nd overall in 12-team leagues. The outlook on Verlander is not good, because his velocity has declined each year for the past four and so has his strikeouts. Verlander has yet to show that he can pitch without his top-notch velocity.

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