Cincinnati Reds
What to expect from Joey Votto in 2015?
Joey Votto had an injury plagued 2014 season. His quad injury never seemed to heal up and forced him to the DL. Votto only played in 62 games, but is expected to be completely healthy during spring camp. The injury was to his back leg, which is extremely important for hitters, especially for someone who hits to all fields like Votto. He has drawn a ton of criticism from Reds fans for his approach at the plate. Votto does not go out of the zone regardless of whether there are men on base or not and from a $200 million player, the fans expect more. Votto has stated that he is not going to change his approach and this has implications for fantasy owners. You can expect a high .OBP and BA, but his run production is going to suffer. He will score runs by being on base a ton and will hit in the neighborhood of 20-25 homeruns and drive in 80-85 runs. This will put him as a top 10 first baseman.
Can Todd Frazier repeat his 2014 success?
Todd Frazier became only the third, third baseman in Reds history to have a 20/20 season. The steals were a surprise for many, as he had stolen a combined nine bases the previous two seasons. However, Frazier is very athletic and can run a little, but a return to twenty stolen bases is unlikely and 10-15 is more realistic. The power on the other hand is legit and he should top 20+ HR's once again. Frazier is a candidate to go 20/10 with a batting average that won't kill you and he offers 1B/3B eligibility, which is really important for deep rotisserie leagues. Frazier has the potential to once again be undervalued at the position, even after his breakout 2014 season.
Fact or Fiction: Devin Mesoraco
Devin Mesoraco's removal of the double toe tap in his swing mechanics allowed him to be quicker to ball and start his swing later, which helps identify major league pitches. All of this led to a breakout 2014 season that saw Mesoraco slash .273/25/80. The question that is on everybody's mind is whether he can repeat in 2015? His peripheral stats do not shed a positive light for a repeat. His 21% HR/FB rate is unsustainable based upon his batted ball speed and his previous career numbers were in the 10% range. He also makes below average contact (72%) and hits a large number of FB (43%), which is predictive of a lower batting average. Expect a drop in HR's and BA. With all that being said, he should still be a fantasy asset, just don't overpay, banking on a repeat of his 2014 season.
Seattle Mariners How big of an impact will Safeco Field have on Nelson Cruz's power?
Nelson Cruz stayed healthy and put up a monster 2014 season in which he hit .271 with 40 HR and 108 RBI. The power of a contract year can be amazing. He did most of his damage in the first half (.287/28/74) and was less then stellar in the second half (.249/12/34).
When Cruz signed his 4yr/$57 million deal over the off-season, many questioned how his bat would translate to Safeco Field. Safeco Field decreases both average and homeruns to right-handed batters, where Camden Yards boosts homeruns for right-handed power. Cruz's power is legit and will play anywhere, but one can expect him to return to the high 20's for homeruns based upon two factors: health and his home park. Cruz has a 5th Round ADP and this seems high for someone who has had trouble staying on the field.
Which young Mariner pitcher will breakout in 2015?
The Mariners are set at the top of their rotation with Felix Hernandez and Hisashi Iwakuma. For them to contend in 2015, they are going to need one of, if not two of their young pitching prospects to step up. The list includes James Paxton, Erasmo Ramirez, and Taijuan Walker. All three got a taste of big league action in 2014. Currently it appears that Paxton and Walker have the inside track to a rotation spot.
James Paxton has a mid-90's fastball and a healthy 54% GB rate, all from the left side. These are both good indicators of future success. He also has a career 25% strikeout rate in the minors. The key question with Paxton is health. He already has missed part of camp because of dual forearm injuries, but remains on schedule to be ready for opening day. He remains a high-upside pitcher that could be had late in drafts.
Taijuan Walker is armed with a mid to upper 90's fastball and a career minor league strikeout rate above 25%. The bad is that he has struggled with his command at times, evidenced by his 11.3% BB rate, in albeit a small sample size in 2014. If Walker can limit his walks, he has the most upside of any Mariner starter not named Felix Hernandez. He is going very late in drafts and represents the type of gamble that can win you a league.
Erasmo Ramirez was receiving sleeper hype coming into 2014, but fell flat on his face. He posted a brutal 5.26 ERA over 75.1 innings and a 4.06 BB/9. Ramirez did post a 10.8 whiff rate, which shows that he still has good stuff. He did lose velocity on his FB (1.1 mph) and is out of options. He needs to have a good spring to make the opening day rotation or he could looking at fresh start somewhere else.
Fact or Fiction: Dustin Ackley's Second Half Production
Dustin Ackley posted a .269/10/36 in only 58 second half games. It is important to consider that pitching gets much weaker in August and September when rosters expand and teams fall out of the race. Regardless, it was encouraging to see Ackley have a period of extended success at the big level. The question is going to be can he carry it into 2015? The simple answer is no. The at-bats are going to be limited do to platooning with Justin Ruggiano. Also, Ackely's batted ball speed of 99 is below average and does not support the surge in power. The regression in power and lack of playing time make it hard for Ackley to carry over his second half success into 2015.
Around the League
Yoenis Cespedes-DET-OF
Yoenis Cespedes is going to take a few days off to nurse left quad tightness. Cespedes is entering into his first year with the Tigers and should hold value because he will be hitting in the middle of a potentially potent Tigers lineup. Cespedes made some significant strides in 2014. He upped his contact rate to 80% from 72% in 2013. He also lowered his strikeout rate to by 4%. If Cespedes can stay healthy, he is going to have a big year for the Tigers.
Andrew McCutchen-PIT-OF
Andrew McCutchen is going to be taking it day by day, after exiting Thursday's game with lower body soreness. It should be nothing to worry about and McCutchen remains one of the top all-around players in baseball. The only question holding back McCutchen, is what kind of support is he going to get from the rest of the Pirates lineup? His RBI and runs totals will be dependent upon his teammates and he could push Trout for the top spot if he could get just get the right amount of support.
Masahiro Tanaka-NYY-SP
Masahiro Tanaka isn't going to be for the feint of heart in 2015. He will be constantly one pitch away from season ending elbow surgery. However, reports had him hitting 94 mph with his fastball during his start Thursday, which is a positive sign.
Anthony Rendon-WAS-3B
Anthony Rendon has been diagnosed with a sprained MCL in his left knee. The Nationals seem to think that he is going to be fine with a couple days of rest. This is still a little concerning for fantasy owners. Rendon is a superstar in the making. He has above average contact rates (87%) and his 10% HR/FB rate is legit. He should challenge 20/20 again in 2015 with an above average BA.
Yoan Moncada-BOS-SS
Yoan Moncada, the new prized prospect for the Red Sox is going to play mostly second base in first pro season. Many reports had him pegged as a shortstop, but he felt most comfortable playing second base. Moncada is worth watching in dynasty and keeper leagues, the Red Sox didn't spend all that money for nothing, the kid can play.
Bobby Parnell-NYM-RP
Bobby Parnell is recovering from Tommy John surgery and is currently dealing with a hamstring issue. Parnell figures to move back into the closers role for the Mets at some point this season. Jenrry Mejia has a hold on the job for now, but his 3.94 BB/9 does not have anyone feeling good about it.
Jacob Turner-CHI-SP
Jacob Turner has been shut down (elbow) for a month. Turner was once a top pitching prospect for the Tigers and Marlins, but has yet to find success at the big league level and things are not looking good for 2015. Turner still has good stuff and will need to earn his way into the Cubs rotation, but for now he is not a fantasy option.
Omar Infante-KC-2B
Omar Infante is dealing with a bone spur in his elbow and is considering surgery after the season is over. He is going to try to play through the injury in 2015, but it is to his right arm, which is the arm that needs to straighten out to get extension and it could hamper his swing. Infante is not much of fantasy option because of his light hitting and this makes one stay away completely.
Garrett Richards-LAA-SP
Garrett Richards is getting close to game action in returning from knee surgery. Richards pitched extremely well prior to getting hurt (168 IP, 2.61 ERA, 164 K). Richards is going on average as the 34th pitcher of the board and this is just too low based upon his stuff and his body of work the previous year. He has immense upside at that price.
George Springer-HOU-OF
George Springer hit two homeruns today in spring action. Springer is going towards the end of the 4th round in most drafts and this is based solely on his tantalizing power/speed combination. However, he does come with some major warts. He had a 33% strikeout rate, 61% contact rate, and .231 batting average. Until Springer can cut down on the strikeouts and make more contact, he his going to struggle to hit above the Mendoza line.
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