There are a pair of things that we can all agree on as we arrive on the doorstep of 2015 ... 1. Mike Trout is the unquestioned number-1 overall pick and, 2. There's a ton of pitching to be found throughout a fantasy draft.
Both statements hit the target, but there is a caveat on fact number-2. A month of covering experts' drafts, taking calls, and doing my own mock drafts, have taught me that there's plenty of pitching in a Mixed League; there's a load of it in an NL-only set-up; but, if you find yourself landing in an American League-only set-up, be prepared to be completely underwhelmed by the pitching options.
The position has undergone total reconstructive surgery since last October. Free agency took away a few of the top-tier names (Max Scherzer, James Shields, and Jon Lester). Furthermore, the inevitable injuries have started early and begun to carve away at the pool (Yu Darvish, Marcus Stroman, Alex Cobb, and, to an extent, Chris Sale and Masahiro Tanaka). Each and every one of those names would have come into the 2015 season opener as a top 20 pitcher in the AL. That's a list of eight guys. Three have gone to the Senior Circuit. Two are finished for the season. Two are currently injured. And, the final man has an arm that is seemingly fighting the odds of staying in one piece with each pitch that it tosses. That's 40% of the best arms in the American League!
Of course, when a crater is created, we have to fill the vacuum with something. And, for anyone who has looked at what that something is, they've likely come away unimpressed. Let's say hello and give a warm welcome to eight hurlers who are being asked to replace our eight 'departed' slingers as top 20 AL hurlers in 2015 (Sale and Tanaka are still well inside the top 20 because their overwhelming talent and upside, outweigh the injury fears). Some do belong here, some could belong here, and others are arriving at the party a bit unprepared to show they belong here ...
Sonny Gray, Oakland
Oakland's up-and-comer, came up a bit short of expectations last year. He sailed right passed the 200 innings threshold (219.0), but his top calling card, the ability to get three strikes, nosedived (a K/9 of 9.5 during a half-season of 2013 lost 2 digits, all the way down to 7.5). That was the most alarming part of his still, very good, first full-season. His ground ball rate is strong (58%) and he's still in possession of a devastating slider that few hitters can spot. The tripling of innings from one season to the next brings up a few minor red flags, but Oakland still has faith in their 25-year old ace. He should warrant the top 20 listing for this year.
Chris Archer, Tampa Bay
Archer should eventually wind up as a top-20 starter in future seasons, but as of now, he doesn't warrant the spot entering this one. His numbers last year do not stand out on paper (10 wins, a 3.33 ERA, a below-average WHIP of 1.28), but if you caught him on the right night, you saw a future number-2. First off, the all-important K-rate saw a lift of nearly a full-batter per nine (7.1 to 8.0). Secondly, he offered some reassurance that you can indeed be an effective major league starter with just two pitches (fastball, slider). Finally, it's always an accomplishment when a then-25 year old, in his second big-league season, takes the ball every five days for a total of 32 starts on the hill. But, then again, how do you make that many starts, yet fail to crack 200 innings of work? Ah, those dastardly pitch counts! Archer went at least seven innings in just 9 of his 32 calls. He had just as many starts where he didn't hit even six innings. Experience tends to iron these things out, so expect to see another move forward soon. Let's call it a 50/50 shot for him to sneak inside the top 20 by seasons' end.
Drew Smyly, Tampa Bay
One of Archer's newest teammates is in a similar spot. Before arriving in Tampa via a deadline deal, this left-hander had shown little to the casual fan. But, he'd shown enough to the always-wily and alert Tampa scouting department. They wanted him in any deal where David Price would be sent out. After donning the Rays' jersey, Smyly made his employers look brilliant. He picked up seven starts with his new team and his first impression was one of admiration. His WHIP was miniscule (0.78), his ERA was just as good (1.70), and he lowered his walks, while upping his punch-outs. But, it's still a bit early to grant him inclusion in the top 20. As so many have noted, the Rays' genius here was just getting Smyly to attack differently. He embraced his strong collection of pitches and stuck to a sequence that kept opposing hitters guessing. They'll figure out a few things about him this year, but not enough to keep him out of the top 25 among AL arms.
Carlos Carrasco, Cleveland
Here's everyone's Hype Baby for 2015! Carrasco 2015 has assumed the role of his locker-mate, 2014's Danny Santana. You might recall that a year ago, so much was made of Santana's late-'13 emergence in the Indian rotation. To many, it was pre-ordained that Santana was a future top 20 hurler. Instead, he couldn't find the strike zone and ended up in the minors (before return to a measure of success late). Meanwhile, Corey Kluber did everything (and more!) that Santana failed at and Carrasco stepped up as a 2nd-half powerhouse for the Tribe rotation. But, let's not get too carried away with the late-summer push. Carrasco has always failed to live up his 'prospect' tag and MLB hitters were having no issues against him since he got to the bigs way back in 2009. Of course, that was all before a 'life-altering' trip to the bullpen, a suddenly-found slider, and the decision to pitch exclusively from the stretch. I'm wary of mid-career revelations and let's all recall that his fascinating turnaround (1.30 ERA, 0.81 WHIP) occurred over the course of just 69 innings. There's a lot of hype here, a decent amount of talent, but still more full-year questions than I'm willing to handle.
Yordano Ventura, Kansas City
Give credit where credit is due. When Ventura's arm was barking way back in April, my personal assumption is that there was no way the rookie would even make 20 starts. Instead, he skipped a start or two and fought his way to an impressive 183 innings of work over the course of 30 starts. Within that run, he dealt with elbow, back, and shoulder ailments, but it was never enough for the Royals to pull out the kids' gloves. Instead, they fired him up for an additional 30 innings of October work! I have major qualms with the workload from a year ago. Ventura can have truly enlightening moments on the hill (after all, he can touch the high 90s with his fastball), but it's still risky to denote him as a member of the top 20 entering this year. There's still so much bridge to cross.
Hisashi Iwakuma, Seattle
Meanwhile, Iwakuma has crossed so many bridges in his career (Japan and the U.S.) that the Department of Transportation has considered hiring him as their next project supervisor. To most fantasy players, he's a boring addition to any rotation. We usually don't score for control, but on that front, Iwakuma is totally elite (he walked just 21 guys over the course of 179 innings!). But, the reasons that so many folks are down on the Mariner vet are fair - he doesn't post big strikeout numbers (you'll never see him touching 8 per nine), he fumbled away the end of last season (a 7.88 ERA in his last seven starts), he's 33 (and, when you include his work in Japan, he's over 2,000 career innings), and he dealt with injuries all of last year (finger, back, groin). The line is thin and the upside is dim. Iwakuma is not what you would call a 'good bet' for a top 20 finish.
Jose Quintana, Chicago White Sox
Few noticed while Quintana just went about his business last season. But, by the time the leaves started to turn and we all started to review what had gone down in 2015, the (other) Chi-Sox lefty started to get some love. The biggest reason that no one really paid attention is that he picked up a measly nine victories. But, we all know the story when it comes to wins, right? Elsewhere, he doesn't feature any number that screams greatness, but he can rack up solid marks all around. He saw a tiny uptick in velocity last year and that helped to lead a career-best K-rate (8.0). That may be his limit, though. He WILL give up more homers (just 10 allowed last year), his ERA could lift to 3.50, and he has got to lasso at least 12 wins ... but he's still a mid-rotation fantasy asset. Unfortunately, that doesn't make him top 20 in the American League.
Collin McHugh, Houston
Here's one that I can mostly get behind. After starting the season down on the farm, McHugh arrived in Houston and was better than many of his more heralded teammates. In what nearly became a full campaign (25 starts), he was impressive all-around. He secured 11 wins for an under-.500 team and turned heads with a great ERA (2.73), an awesome WHIP (1.02), and more than a strikeout per inning (157 in 154.2 innings). One of the few notable concerns would be his very low BABIP from 2014 (.259). He was closing in on top 20 in the AL before all the hustle and bustle. Now, he's pushed his way into the conversation and has a chance to stay throughout the upcoming six months.
You can hear Kyle each weeknight on 'The SiriusXM Fantasy Drive' from 7-10 ET, Sirius 210, XM 87.
Fantistics is using the
NFBC ADP rankings
in our software this season. NFBC runs some of the best
seasonal prize leagues in the industry. For
more information on the NFBC contact Greg Ambrosius at
gambrosius@sats.com
Draft Advisor:
bring our winning strategy (Serpentine /
Auction) to your draft. Our player
rankings adjust as players are selected, adhering to the changing
dynamics of your draft. After a player is selected/drafted, the
software will display/suggest the best players remaining.
Purchase Today!
href="https://www.insiderbaseball.com/baseballsample.htm"> height=17 src="https://www.insiderbaseball.com/images/MoreInfoWhite.gif" width=93 border=0>
