Several years ago we introduced Consistency Factor and it's implications in Head to Head and Daily leagues, as well as all Fantasy leagues regardless of their scoring setup. We run and update this piece every season because of it's veracity. Consistency Factor gives us an indication of a batter's quality games or quality weekly output. The premise: established players who do not produce quality output on a consistent basis are a risk to achieve similar production in the future.
Essentially we want players who produce consistently rather than in sporadic episodes. The reasoning is a derivative of the laws of probability, consistency is paramount to lowering our risk...the more observations the better. Below is a list of the worst hitters in terms of weekly consistency in 2014 (based on 350 ABs). The column below, Weekly 2014, is a recording of each player's 2014 quality weeks (out of a max possible 26 weekly observations). Also included is their 3 year average consistency percentage (2-3 Yr %) which is adjusted for playing time factors.
As you can see, many of 2014's inconsistent players have a history of inconsistency (2-3 yr %). This reinforces one of the tenets of the original premise: Inconsistent players usually stay inconsistent on a yearly basis. Thus the players that show a 3YR history below 40% are at risk to post inconsistent yearly results.
We know what to expect from Jason Castro on a year to year basis: lack luster fantasy output. However there are players who have clearly begun to show the effects of age. Players like Ryan Howard, Mark Teixeria, Brian McCann, Michael Bourn, and Jarrod Saltalamacchia are clearly showing the trend line associated with advancing age. You'll still see brilliance on certain days, possibly weeks at a time, but the time between these outbreaks gets longer with age. If you play in a weekly Head to Head league these are the type of players that you will need to avoid in your draft.
On the flip side, players like Allen Craig, Yadier Molina, and Evan Longoria are still young enough that we surmise that we'll see a rebound from them in 2015, as they have a history of more consistent production.
When considering Consistency Factor both injury and playing time risks are an additional factor to consider when evaluating players. As you thumb through the Consistency Factor indicator on the Player Pages within the windows software, you'll get a better feel on which players are a safer play for you on draft day....this is especially relevant if you play in weekly head to head league.
I do want to stress that 1st and 2nd year players should be given leeway, as they are just getting their feet wet and do have the potential to become consistent hitters.
Below is a listing of last season's most consistent players:
DEnard Span had a nice comeback season last season, but his
jump in consistency from 48% to 69% raises a red flag, as it's a
pretty significant jump...especially coming at the age of 31. Most of
that consistency came in the way of a jump in stolen bases from 20 to
31...which will be difficult to replicate. Others
that fall into the risk factor category include Justin Morneau,
Adam LaRoche, Adam Dunn, and Juan Uribe. Again the young players
in this list should be given leeway, but big jumps in consistency are
difficult to maintain. Among this group is Anthony Rizzo, Michael
Brantley, Buster Posey, Lorenzo Cain, Alejandro De Aza, Ben Revere,
and Adam Eaton.
For those who are interested in consistency factor, it's conveniently listed as a sort-able column as well on the Draft Advisory Software (projections screen - register) (Select Columns WC for Weekly Consistency and DC for Daily Consistency) in the draft software. The Weekly consistency is based on the number of weeks (out of 26), while the Daily is based on the number of consistent games recorded last season (out of 162).
Anthony A. Perri
Statistician and Publisher -Fantistics Insiderbaseball.com
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